Shettar factor haunts BJP

The Bharatiya Janata Party has a daunting task in Karnataka, the only southern state where it has been in power, and therefore would not want to lose this position under any circumstances. However, as things stand today, the saffron brigade is on the defensive and is trying to contain the damage caused by the switchover to the Congress by some of its prominent leaders, including former Chief Minister, Jagadish Shettar and erstwhile deputy CM, Laxman Savadi.
In fact, Shettar’s moving away could pose huge problems since he is also regarded as the most important Lingayat face after B.S. Yediyurappa, who has already announced his retirement from electoral politics but despite that is leading the campaign. The Lingayats have been the backbone of the BJP, and if they decide to change their preferences, the BJP would find it extremely difficult to win.
Shettar is a six-time MLA, who was denied the nomination on flimsy grounds. He has also been amongst the architects of the BJP in the state and besides being the CM, has held several posts such as Leader of the Opposition. He is obviously cut up with the central leadership and has openly accused B.L. Santosh, the RSS interlocutor of the BJP and state in-charge, Dharmendra Pradhan of messing up things.
Last minute efforts to placate him with the promise of a Rajya Sabha, did not work and indignant over the manner in which he was treated, Shettar lashed out by stating that this was no way of treating a senior person like him. He also maintained that the reason provided to him for denial of the ticket was that younger elements had to be encouraged. However, in many places, people much older to him and with far less accomplishments were chosen as candidates. This was absolutely unacceptable. While Shettar has claimed that his joining the Congress would help it to obtain 20 to 30 seats more than it was earlier getting, this is something which would only be known following the outcome.
The Congress is also facing infighting in its ranks and both former Chief Minister Siddaramaiah and state party president D.K. Shivakumar, do not see eye to eye with each other on many matters and the Congress chief, Mallikrajun Kharge has his own agenda in his home state. If the trio fails to work in unison, the election, which is already in the party’s pocket, may slip away, something which the Congress specialises in doing.
Congress insiders say that Shivakumar and Siddaramaiah could reach a pact of sharing power but this is something that should be discussed later. The party has to first come to power with a comfortable majority for such an eventuality to subsequently take place.
There is no doubt that the BJP has been on a slippery wicket in Karnataka and is now skating on thin ice after the departure of seniors such as Shettar. There are political analysts who feel that Shettar was a catch for the Congress as big as Himanta Biswa Sarma was for the BJP in Assam. While Himanta Sarma has proved his electoral credentials after joining the BJP, Shettar’s contribution to the Congress would be known only after 13 May when the results are out.
The situation for the BJP in Karnataka is quite similar to what it was for it in Himachal Pradesh late last year when it allowed the Congress to win because of poor strategy and planning. In Himachal, there was a demand for replacing Jairam Thakur, considered a non-performing Chief Minister by many in his own party, while in Karnataka, Basavaraj Bommai is considered as a weak CM by several of his colleagues as also an “outsider” since he has Janata Dal (Secular) roots. In Himachal, the BJP paid for marginalising and ignoring senior leaders such as former CMs Prem Kumar Dhumal and Shanta Kumar. A similar approach is also visible in Karnataka which has compelled many leaders to switch sides or sit at home without wholeheartedly participating in the electoral activity.
For those who are politically superstitious, during the past 35 years or so, any party which wins Karnataka does not win in New Delhi. The present government was formed with the help of defections since the BJP had fallen short of the halfway mark. The BJP on its part is confident of winning and believes that Congress was its worst enemy and not trusted by the people.
There is also intense speculation as to what would happen if no party is able to get to the majority figure on its own. This is where the Janata Dal (Secular), which is popular in parts of the state as also amongst the powerful Vokkaliga community, could play a decisive role. The JD(S) could be the kingmaker.
Politics is a game of possibilities and in the unlikely event of the Congress falling short of the halfway mark, the JD(S) may offer conditional support, which could eliminate top contenders from the game. For deciding to back the Congress, the JD(S) could insist on someone like Jagadish Shettar to be the CM, a development that would be unacceptable to many in the Congress. However, the political significance would be that it would be an alliance between the Vokkaligas and the Lingayats also at one level.
Karnataka is a state the Congress in particular cannot afford to lose in order to play a prominent role in forging an anti BJP alliance at the Centre. Between us.