Rahul Gandhi’s publicly adopted stance on issues like freebies, welfare schemes, reservations and even pensions should worry analysts.
The only constant is change. And make no mistake; though the 2024 Lok Sabha elections have returned the NDA to power for a third consecutive term, there is a tantalising whiff of change in the air. Who won how many seats has been written about plenty of times. How Narendra Modi would behave and perform as a Prime Minister dependent on allies is a subject that has been analysed to death. But the whiff of change revolves around Rahul Gandhi. After a series of still born launches and re-launches, it looks as if the scion of the Nehru-Gandhi dynasty is finally enjoying his moment in the sun. In the CVoter Tracker poll that is a year-round exercise across India, the favourable ratings of Rahul Gandhi have shot up from 11 in January this year to about 25 now. There is a sudden spring in his step.
Apart from die-hard BJP fans, not many are associating the word “Pappu” while talking about him. Suddenly, he appears more confident, and more importantly, more coherent. Many political pundits and commentators are now convinced, the Congress on its own in Haryana and with allies in Jammu & Kashmir, Jharkhand and Maharashtra will get the better of a nervous, defensive and reactive BJP in the forthcoming Assembly elections this year. If that does happen, Rahul Gandhi will increasingly be looked at as a genuine and potent challenger to Narendra Modi for 2029. By then, he will be a more mature 59 years of age; still youthful by the standards of Indian politics but also with experience.
Change in a democracy is always healthy. On the face of it, it is possible Rahul Gandhi could well become yet another Nehru-Gandhi to be crowned as Prime Minister. Yet, for sober analysts who look at the economic future of India as it looks at a journey beyond becoming the third largest economy in the world, the now tantalising promise of Rahul Gandhi is also perilous. The primary reason is economic. Since P.V. Narasimha Rao in 1991, no Prime Minister has so openly and relentlessly advocated a return to the good old days of “socialism”. Even when Sonia Gandhi was leading the National Advisory Council during the 2004-2014 UPA era as the real power behind the throne, the Dr Manmohan Singh government continued with market-oriented policies, even as the NAC dreamt up welfare schemes. But if you have been following the positions adopted by Rahul Gandhi, one becomes genuinely apprehensive about what his economic vision for India is.
Without market-oriented policies and without the genius of the Indian entrepreneur, it would have been impossible for India to lift more than 500 million people out of poverty since 1991. Even a modest step away from market-oriented policies in a quest for social and redistributive justice would wreck the economic future of India. When it came to economic policies and vision, Narasimha Rao was a reluctant but historic reformer. Atal Bihari Vajpayee was not reluctant at all when it came to market oriented policies. Dr Manmohan Singh continued that process as a veteran bureaucrat turned politician. Narendra Modi openly bats for entrepreneurs even as his government has rolled out game changing and leakage proof welfare schemes for the poor. But does anyone know what economic policies Rahul Gandhi will adopt and pursue if he does become Prime Minister? It is an important question to ponder over.
The strident manner in which Rahul Gandhi rails against crony capitalism while publicly painting “Adani-Ambani” as corporate villains who will steal and rob from the poor reminds sober analysts of the terrible days of Indira Gandhi when a rich businessman was automatically “convicted” as an immoral thief. Politicians of that era railed against “Tatas-Birlas”. In the age of Rahul Gandhi, the villains are “Adani-Ambani”. An economy and business environment where private capital, risk taking and entrepreneurship are viewed with suspicion and hostility will not attract investors. As it is, thanks to continuing red tape and perceptions of “tax terrorism”, thousands of dollar-millionaires leave India every year for greener pastures. Strident hostility towards entrepreneurs will accelerate that process.
The other thing that should worry any sober and sensible analyst are Rahul Gandhi’s publicly adopted stance on issues like freebies, welfare schemes, reservations and even pensions. In the 2019 elections, he had promised Rs 6,000 a month cash transfer to Indians. In 2024, he promised Rs 8,500 a month. He wants resources, jobs, benefits to be allocated based on proportionate population of caste after a nationwide survey. He wants the Agniveer scheme to be completely scrapped and for the armed forces to go back to the old system of recruiting, training and paying soldiers.
He wants legally guaranteed MSPs on every single agriculture produce. And he wants India to go back to the Old Pension Scheme, amazing other things. This is a dystopian and terrifying vision. Jawaharlal Nehru and Indira Gandhi were genuine patriots who wanted to abolish poverty in India. There is no doubt about that. But the policies they adopted increased the population of poor people in India. Rahul Gandhi, at least in his public utterances, wants to walk in their footsteps. That road leads to bankruptcy and economic ruin.
Supporters and admirers of Rahul Gandhi say that one should not judge what he says as an opposition leader targeting Narendra Modi and that it is rhetoric meant to unsettle and eventually unseat Modi. Their argument: haven’t Congress governments in Rajasthan, Chhattisgarh, Telangana, Himachal Pradesh and Karnataka done business with the Adani group? That part is true. But there is another terrifying truth. In December 2022, the Congress won Himachal Pradesh and promptly restored the old pension scheme.
That one decision added Rs 20,000 crore to the annual budget of the state. Now, the Congress government is cutting allocations for health, education, urban development and social security because pensions eat up a lot of money. Today, it faces a crippling economic crisis.
In Karnataka, it won by promising to implement five welfare schemes in 2023. To its credit, it has implemented all of them. But the cost of the schemes is Rs 60,000 crore a year and the finances of Karnataka have been wrecked in just about a year. Something similar is unfolding in Telangana.
What if Rahul Gandhi becomes Prime Minister and replicates what Congress governments have done in Himachal, Telangana and Karnataka at the national level?
Any sensible Indian, even those who welcome a change in government in 2029, would be worried.
Yashwant Deshmukh is Founder & Editor in Chief of CVoter Foundation and Sutanu Guru is Executive Director.