The most significant threat will arise from the opposition alliance’s refusal to respect the democratic verdict.
Narendra Modi is on the verge of winning a historic third term as Prime Minister of India. At this point, even his worst critics have accepted that Modi 3.0 is going to be a reality. Known for having the blueprint for the first 100 days in office ready, NaMo has this time added an additional 25 days dedicated to the nation’s youth.
Regardless of whether he serves for one year, a term, or a term and a half, Narendra Modi is poised to enter the final phase of his long political career, and he would like to make every day and decision count. While the spotlight will undoubtedly focus on any surprises he unveils regarding ministerial appointments followed by significant policy decisions within the initial 125 days, it is crucial to highlight the hurdles that the Modi government will encounter.
INTERNATIONAL ARENA
In March, when the US Ambassador to India commented on the notification of the Citizenship Amendment Act rules, I posted on X that it was only a matter of two months before the US would start rolling out the red carpet, realising that Modi is winning big. As predicted, the US has changed its tune and has been in an overdrive, praising India, the Indian PM, and India’s vibrant democracy. This is not to say that the US will stop interfering in Indian affairs entirely, but rather that it will slow down for a while.
The West, including the US, will of course continue to indirectly interfere in Indian affairs. Global rankings and reports are the preferred tools that the West uses against India. While India keeps dismissing these as biased, it is important for the Modi government to find ways to blunt the impact of these tools.
The developed world’s attempts to de-risk from China, and the US considering India as a counterbalance against Beijing, are favourable for India. However, it remains a fact that the US has yet to earn India’s complete trust, and India cannot ignore its geographical reality of being in a neighbourhood driven by hostility of varying degrees from and towards the US.
According to Dr S. Jaishankar, the transition in the global order is not incremental but rather a very deep churn. So far, the Narendra Modi government has skilfully walked the diplomatic tightrope to maximise India’s interests by strategic alignments, and protected the economy from the negative effects of the pandemic, conflicts, oil prices, etc. With the stormy transition and new flashpoints, a lot will depend on the Modi government’s ability to navigate through geopolitical challenges, expand India’s reach in the Global South, continue to cement India’s leadership position as a positive influence on international issues, and, most importantly, cushion India’s economy against global financial shocks.
DOMESTIC FRONT
The Narendra Modi government will also have to exercise the utmost caution domestically to achieve its goal of becoming the third-largest economy.
It is a given that Modi 3.0 will make significant decisions, surpassing those of Modi 1.0 and 2.0. With every such decision, protests are inevitable. Therefore, striking a delicate balance between allowing democratic dissent of genuine stakeholders without letting decisive actions be hijacked by street power will be crucial. Neither the citizens nor the investors would want India to turn into a “dharna republic” by politically-engineered protests. While the BJP government does not shy away from taking bold decisions, it has often lacked comprehensive strategies to address the demonstrations—for example, CAA and farm laws. The notable exception was the handling of Jammu and Kashmir after the cancellation of its special status. It exemplified BJP planning at its very best—every conceivable implication from security measures to international reactions, from administrative complexities to legal facets, was well-considered. Such thorough planning is required for implementing major reforms or fulfilling key manifesto promises.
Another issue is the attempts made by some elements to control the government through the judiciary. This is distinct from the judiciary’s own tendency to enter into the governance landscape. Almost all major government decisions and mega infrastructure projects are challenged in court. As a result, the government, in addition to grappling with protests and false narratives, is also constantly dealing with legal challenges. Ironically, despite being labelled as authoritarian by its critics, the Modi government has been unable to stop these multifaceted attacks.
The most significant threat will arise from the opposition alliance’s refusal to respect the democratic verdict. Congress and its ecosystem have been casting doubts about the Election Commission, the election process and the EVMs for quite some time. Congress leader Rahul Gandhi, while expressing confidence that the BJP will lose, has also declared the 2024 general elections as a “fixed match” if the BJP wins anything above 150-180. It is a different story that last year the Congress won in Telangana with the same “rigged” election machinery. The Gandhi scion has been constantly playing with caste and class divides and has also warned that India will burn if the Modi government attempts to amend the Constitution. There are also communal, ethnic, and regional fault lines that could be easily exploited. One can hope for better sense to prevail and for the opposition to not blur the line between being anti-Modi and being anti-India. The risk of civil strife would be alleviated, albeit temporarily, if the opposition alliance, especially the Congress, faces a complete rout in the elections. They would then need time to recover from the psychological setback. Nevertheless, the Centre as well as the BJP state governments will have to be prepared to not let sparks turn into a fire.
Lastly, with each term, the expectations of voters from NaMo have been going up. If any of the above disrupts the government’s ability to deliver, it will not go down well with BJP voters. With Maharashtra, Haryana, Jharkhand and likely Jammu and Kashmir going to the polls later this year, the BJP would want the Modi magic to remain intact.
THE BJP TROUBLE
Over the last ten years, the BJP has witnessed a steady inflow of leaders from other political parties. It helped the party expand its footprint in some regions where it was not strong, and also strengthened its hold in states where it was in power. The influx has reached a point where it is beginning to strain the relationship between long-term party workers and the party. BJP members are more likely to put party interests above personal interests. However, there is a growing discontent that long-time party workers are ignored in favour of imports. At some point, the BJP leadership will have to take stock of how much they are gaining and losing by importing so many people from other parties, weigh the pros and cons of giving prominence to the new entrants from other parties at the cost of dedicated members, and whether the imports are bringing with them their party’s ideological and governance imprint, and what is the harm caused by the same on the BJP value system and governance style. It is also true that it is not helping NaMo’s incorruptible image to be seen sharing the stage with those who are accused of corruption.
At a time when NaMo would want more BJP state governments so that the double engine can propel India quickly towards the goal of the third-largest economy, it is common sense that the BJP should avoid a situation where it has to do firefighting within its own house.
CONCLUSION
Narendra Modi envisions India’s transformation into a developed nation by 2047, with a commitment to laying a robust foundation for the next 1,000 years. The effectiveness of his response to myriad challenges and the swiftness with which he implements key manifesto promises and reforms, without getting tripped by opposition or slowed down by electoral or party constraints, will be crucial in advancing his vision.
Semu Bhatt is a strategic adviser and author specialising in governance, geopolitics, and conflict. She has a comprehensive understanding of Narendra Modi’s politics and policies and a consistent track record of accurately predicting his political decisions.