Many countries in the Global South find it difficult to accept Western claims of a ‘rules-based order’ when the US and its allies frequently violate the rules, committing atrocities in their various wars.
The year 2022 can be termed as the year of conflict. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine prompted the US and Europe to rearm and pushed Russia and the US back into a Cold War competition. In the Indo-Pacific, China and the US are facing each other with increasing hostility and suspicion, and some analysts fear a war over Taiwan. These dangers prompted President Joe Biden to declare that the world is at risk of annihilation for the first time since the Cuban missile crisis.
However, while conflict is now at the doorstep of Europe, it has been a dominant theme as far as large parts of the world are concerned with wars raging in Syria, Iraq, Yemen and Afghanistan and particularly India, which is facing a collusive threat from both Pakistan and China as well as battling a proxy war. In a speech from Moscow, Russian President Vladimir Putin said the 2020s are “the most dangerous decade” since the end of World War II.
DIFFERING PERSPECTIVES
One of the fallouts of the Ukraine war is how differently much of the world apart from the West sees not only the war in Ukraine but also the broader global landscape. Shortly after the start of the war, President Biden had stated: “The democracies of the world are revitalized with purpose and unity found in months that we’d once taken years to accomplish.” However, a year later, it is evident that it’s not all black and white.
Governments and people across much of the world have not been convinced by the “free world” rhetoric propounded by the West in view of the Western double standards based on the past on issues most important to them. They are also suffering the fallouts of mounting costs of the prolonged war and sharpening geopolitical tensions. Their focus on the future includes dangers, as well as the new opportunities, the war and the broader return of great-power conflict present for both individual countries and their regions.
Most are understandably more concerned about their climate vulnerability, access to advanced technology and capital, and their need for better infrastructure, health care, and education systems. They are also concerned with the rise in food, fertiliser and fuel prices. The increasing global instability, both political and financial, is a threat to tackling such challenges. The US is in a weak position to defend global norms after the presidency of Donald Trump, which saw contempt for global rules and practices in areas as diverse as the climate, human rights, and nuclear non-proliferation.
President Volodymyr Zelenskyy in a speech on the first anniversary of the start of the war with Russia had declared that “Ukraine has united the world.” While the war has certainly united the West, it has left the world divided.
GLOBAL SOUTH’S CONCERNS
Countries in the Global South are being viewed as “fence sitters” refusing to take sides in the war in Ukraine. Many in the West are questioning this stand and are unable to understand the reasons which have dictated this position. Speculation ranges from neutrality out of economic interests to ideological alignments with Moscow or even a lack of morals.
But could it be that there is now a greater self-assurance existing with regard to their own strategic autonomy and an unwillingness to be drawn into a conflict between Russia and the US? They, therefore, seek to pursue their own interests and values within international institutions and contest Western understandings of legitimacy and fairness.
Countries need to maintain relations with all major powers. Managing a multipolar world, entails keeping the channels of communication open with all the players and keeping all their options open for maximum flexibility. Therefore, countries are pursuing this strategy because they see the future division of global power as uncertain and wish to avoid commitments that will be hard to fulfil. Countries need to quickly adapt their foreign policies to unpredictable circumstances.
Many countries in the Global South find it difficult to accept Western claims of a “rules-based order” when the US and its allies frequently violate the rules—committing atrocities in their various wars.
There is also an apparent hypocrisy in the US framing its conflict with Beijing and Moscow as a battle between democracy and autocracy as, the US continues to selectively back authoritarian governments when and where it serves its interests.
The West routinely deals with violent autocracies to advance its own interests. The US is improving ties with Venezuela to get more oil. Europe is signing energy contracts with repressive Arab Gulf regimes, though the West claims that its foreign policy is guided by human rights and democracy.
In a series of UN votes since the Ukraine war broke out, around 40 countries representing nearly 50% of the world’s population have regularly abstained or voted against motions condemning the Russian invasion. Fifty-eight countries abstained from a vote in April 2022, to expel Russia from the UN Human Rights Council. According to the Economist Intelligence Unit, two thirds of the world’s population live in countries that are officially neutral or supportive of Russia. There is no doubt anger at perceived Western double standards and stalled reform efforts in the international system.
Brazilian President Luis Inácio Lula da Silva has described the invasion as a “mistake,” but he has also given credence to the argument that Russia has been wronged. “Zelenskyy is as responsible as Putin for the war,” his statement that highlights global ambivalence about the conflict.
In order to improve relations with developing countries and manage the evolving global order, the West must take the concerns of the Global South on climate change, trade, and much else seriously.
MULTIPOLARITY
Many in the West associate a multipolar world order with conflict and instability, preferring a dominant US, as was the case after the collapse of the Soviet Union. However, that view may not hold true amongst all nations where the prevailing narrative is that multipolarity could serve as a stable foundation for the international order in the twenty-first century.
Part of this reasoning is backed by recent events. The post-Cold War unipolar moment witnessed wars in Afghanistan, the Balkans, and Iraq. The US hegemony was unchecked, and they imposed their will in certain countries like Libya or let peripheral regional conflicts fester memories of bipolarity are no better. That was then.
Today, US power seems much diminished.
STATUS OF RUSSIA
Russia may be on the path to accelerating its long-term decline, but it remains a major force to reckon with in the foreseeable future and a necessary player in negotiating an end to the war. Russia is still a global power of consequence—with a military footprint that extends across continents and a United Nations Security Council veto. Most countries in the Global South also see a total Russian defeat as undesirable, visualising that a broken Russia could result in a power vacuum which could destabilise countries beyond Europe.
The Western view may be right that Russia is violating human rights in Ukraine, but Western powers have also carried out similarly violent, unjust, and undemocratic interventions—from Vietnam to Iraq.
India’s relationship with Russia has deep roots stretching back to the Cold War, and the ties between both countries are “special and privileged.” Russia accounts for roughly 60% of India’s defence equipment, and over the years, Russia has supplied India with many advanced weapons. Today, Russia is also a major source for India’s crude requirements.
Meanwhile, closeness between China and Russia is growing. The worry is that isolating Moscow would push it closer to China.
VIEW FROM INDIA
As India prepares to hold G20’s 18th Summit, Prime Minister Narendra Modi writes about catalysing a new mindset within humanity, help the world move beyond greed and confrontation, and cultivate a “universal sense of one-ness”, the theme, being “One Earth, One Family, One Future.” Rather than war and rivalry, the Prime Minister declared, the greatest challenges humanity faces today are climate change, terrorism, and pandemics—issues that “can be solved not by fighting each other, but only by acting together”.
India is not promoting Western calls for Russia’s isolation. It feels that it needs to strengthen itself and address the world’s shared challenges, and has the right to work with everyone.
This perspective isn’t unique to India. Much of the Global South is wary of being dragged into siding with the US against China or Russia. And they have watched rich and powerful states disregard these views and preferences in pursuit of their geopolitical interests.
Neutrality is nothing new. “We are not pro-Russian, nor for that matter are we pro-American,” is what Prime Minister Jawaharlal Nehru had said, “We are pro-Indian.”
But the West still remains India’s most important trading partner, the major source of capital and technology including defence technology, and the preferred destination for the Indian diaspora. India is seen as aligning more towards the US in view of the expansionism of China and membership of the Quad is reflective of this.
CONCLUSION
French President Emmanuel Macon had said, “I am struck by how we have lost the trust of the Global South.” He is right. The truth remains that whatever be the merits of the arguments regarding Ukraine, geopolitics, and the international system, the leadership in most countries cannot afford to disregard the core interests of their own countries and the challenges faced by them. If unaddressed, these will become a source of even greater challenge and disorder, no matter what happens on the battlefields in Ukraine. The gulf in perceptions is dangerous for a world which is facing enormous global risks.
Maj Gen Jagatbir Singh, VSM (Retd) is a former officer of the Indian Army.