The elimination of the Hamas terror factory in Gaza would liberate the people living there so that they can have a future much better than the past has been since Hamas seized control in 2007.
New Delhi
Analysts having an inside track on developments on 7 October and afterwards say that backers of Hamas were assured of covert support in the operation by a country that may be labelled a “Superpower Sponsor”. Asymmetric warfare specialists from that country met with “cutouts” (i.e. intermediaries) in two cities in West Asia since July to present and refine a plan. They claimed that this would supercharge the effort by multiple groups to weaken the morale and fighting spirit of Israel. The objective was to ensure a reverse migration of members of the Jewish community from Israel to countries across both sides of the Atlantic, including topflight technical talent in a country that may be small in size but is significant in terms of technological achievements.
Studying the empirical data on past hostage situations, the calculation of the planners was that about 175 hostages would ensure that the Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) would be “on the defensive” in the inevitable battle that would follow. Hamas spokespersons have publicly declared (including in a television channel located in an ally of the “Superpower Sponsor”) that Hamas members in the custody of countries that some of the captured hostages belonged to could be released as part of a prisoner swap agreement. They expected that this would be reached “within six weeks” in a situation where (in their calculations) the IDF held back on its firepower and a strategy involving incursions into Gaza for fear of accidentally killing some of the hostages.
The “Superpower Sponsor” saw its interests threatened by the new transport corridor announced at the 2023 New Delhi G20 Summit that would go from India to West Asia and from there to Europe. Also, while on the surface welcoming the damping down of regional rivalries such as between Tehran and Riyadh, its interests were calculated as being better served by a rise in tensions in West Asia that would be in unison with the rise in tensions between NATO and Russia that began just hours after President Putin and CCP General Secretary Xi Jinping had a detailed conversation on the future of the global order.
Joined by its allies, associates and dupes in other parts of the world, the “Superpower Sponsor” coordinated the planning and carrying out of a blitzkrieg of social media reports that would in effect paint Israel as the aggressor and the “people of Gaza” (i.e. Hamas) as the victims. Within six hours of the first terrorists landing inside Israel for the purpose of killing and abducting civilians, a blizzard of misleading messaging succeeded in many minds of drowning out the truth, which is that Israel had suffered a terror attack that in the counting of human losses in proportional terms was more than twelve times the impact of 9/11. By the next day, another wave of misleading social media messaging that had been prepared months before was let loose. This sought to erase the difference between the success of the 2003 operation to drive the Taliban out of power in Afghanistan and the consequences of errors made subsequently by President George W. Bush, such as the labelling of Saddam Hussein as a sponsor of Al Qaeda, an organisation that had sworn to hunt him down and kill him. In much the same way, it was calculated that messaging of an Iranian role in the 7 October attack would so inflame public opinion in the US that there would be a repeat of the error made by George W. Bush, that of diverting focus from the actual perpetrator (Al Qaeda sheltered by the Taliban) to another country (in the case of Bush, Iraq). Petroproduct prices would go up, but the “Superpower Sponsor” was confident that it would be largely unaffected by this, as it would be able to source much of its requirements from the Russian Federation. At the same time, India would be severely impacted, and as a consequence, there would be “mass civil unrest” as a consequence of the rise in prices and sinking of the economy caused by the Hamas-IDF war expanding into a war that would involve the US and Iran. Several countries in NATO would be similarly affected, thereby giving more room for manoeuvre for the “Superpower Sponsor” to concentrate without significant NATO blowback on the nearby country that was its immediate target. Analysts contacted say that the social media messaging about Iran being the mastermind “was not supported by data”, including intercepts, but was designed to ensure a regional rather than a limited conflict.
The people of Gaza have no say in the governance or the terror activities of Hamas, but it is in their name that voices are springing up demanding that Israel “spare the people of Gaza” by avoiding a response in force to the terror attack. In reality, were the Palestinian Authority to regain control of Gaza once the Hamas-IDF conflict concludes with a victory by the victim of the 7 October attack, Gaza has the potential to be a major hub of international commerce. Such an outcome would take place only after (a) the IDF ensures the elimination of terror groups operating in Gaza and (b) Prime Minister Netanyahu reins in hotheads from within his coalition who believe in a One State Solution to the Israel-Palestine issue, with the Palestinians being forced of territory that remains under the PA so that it could be absorbed by Israel. It was pointed out by the analysts studying the data secured by them that “since planning for the 7 October operation hit high gear”, Hamas and its covert backers were looking for an excuse that in their calculations would anger the entire Muslim community across the world and (ii) ensure that other regional players that are on bad terms with Israel, such as Iran and its associates in Syria and Lebanon, would almost immediately leap into the fray, thereby expanding the number of fronts that the IDF would have to deal with. The ill-advised entry into the Al Aqsa premises by a fringe group represented in the Netanyahu government gave them that excuse. Fortunately, as yet the expansion of the conflict into a regional and a theological dimension has not taken place.
The hope among those eager to carry forward the promise of the Abraham Accords and the Saudi-Israel reconciliation is that such an escalation will be avoided by the IDF, despite the influence of fringe elements in high positions in Jerusalem “who took the omnipotence of the Israeli military for granted”.
They point out the “over 70%” of the population of Iran favour an accommodation with Israel, something that is possible once the campaign of terror against the Jewish state and people stops. They add that President Obama was “over cautious” in dealing with Iran while President Trump was “reckless”, and say that a dialogue between Tehran and Washington is needed, on the condition that Iranian proxies cease offensive operations against Israel, something that would benefit the people of Iran, just as acceptance of the reality of the existence of Israel as a Jewish state within defensible boundaries would benefit the people living in Gaza.
Judging by the analysts contacted, the region is on a knife edge. The good news is that despite the social media blitzkrieg against Israel and its people, the fact that it is not Israel but Hamas that is the occupying power in Gaza has gained wide traction. This has thus far ensured that the region remained stable, despite the 7 October shock and the subsequent war. As for a ceasefire, they say that this makes sense only when a “cease terror” takes place. The IDF has the capability and the competence to ensure that the war remains within its present boundaries, while the fringe elements in Netanyahu’s coalition that seek an expansion of the conflict into Syria, Lebanon and Iran have been weakened as a consequence of the horror of the 7 October attack on Israel.
The Jewish people suffered unspeakably in the Holocaust that took place in the 20th century, and have the right to ensure that any group with an intention similar to that of the Nazis gets eliminated. Prime Minister Narendra Modi has made this point amply clear in his comments on the conflict. A stalemate (or worse, a setback by the IDF) would embolden terrorists to strike elsewhere, including within West Asia, while the elimination of the Hamas terror factory in Gaza would liberate the people living there so that they can have a future much better than the past has been since Hamas seized control in 2007. The Palestinian people, among the most culturally and intellectually gifted in the world, deserve nothing less.