New Delhi: The Maharashtra Assembly elections will serve as a crucial litmus test for the state’s Mahayuti and Maha Vikas Aghadi alliances, following the announcement of the election date by the Election Commission of India. The state will hold a single-phase election on November 20, with the results set to be declared on November 23, alongside the results of the Jharkhand elections. The Assembly elections will put the leadership of both the alliances to test.
The upcoming election is expected to be intriguing as the I.N.D.I Alliance partners—the Congress, Sharad Pawar’s NCP and Uddhav Thackeray’s Sena—who comprise the Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA), plan to replicate their Lok Sabha election strategy in the Assembly elections. MVA’s previous campaign focused on the “threat to the Constitution and to reservations,” appealing to Dalits. The MVA is reviving this and is addressing the unrest among Marathas regarding their quota demands, while counting on generous support from the Muslim community. However, amid political shifts and the ongoing trouble between Marathas and OBCs over reservations, the BJP is aiming to apply its successful “anti-Jat polarisation” strategy from Haryana to consolidate OBC votes in Maharashtra. OBCs are estimated to make up 52% of Maharashtra’s population. As the election approaches, the Mahayuti government comprising the BJP, the Shiv Sena and Ajit Pawar’s NCP has introduced various welfare schemes, with a particular focus on the Ladki Bahin Yojna, which provides a Rs 1,500 monthly allowance to 2.5 crore underprivileged women aged 18 to 65.
BJP state spokesperson Shaina N.C. told The Sunday Guardian that, being the larger party in the alliance, the BJP will naturally take on the role of the “big brother” and will contest the maximum seats, as it did in the previous Assembly elections. However, she did not disclose the exact number of seats the BJP is targeting. In this election, the BJP is taking the lead in the Mahayuti alliance under the leadership of Deputy Chief Minister Devendra Fadnavis, who is making a strong push to retain power in the state. Fadnavis faces the challenging task of guiding his party to victory, a test of his political prowess.
The Assembly elections will also be a critical test for incumbent CM Eknath Shinde, who managed to secure the state’s top position with just 40 MLAs. However, this election presents a new challenge, as Shinde will face pressures not only from the MVA but also from within the Mahayuti. His faction will need to prove its value within the coalition.
Similarly, Ajit Pawar is confronting the biggest political challenge of his career as he strives to keep his NCP faction afloat, especially after its disappointing performance in the Lok Sabha elections. Following the NCP’s poor showing, where it won only one seat, Pawar’s faction came under criticism from the BJP and the Sangh Parivar for dragging down the Mahayuti’s performance. The BJP itself did not fare well, with its seat count dropping from 23 in 2019 to just nine in the Lok Sabha elections.
In fact, the situation appears to be equally challenging for the MVA, as it faces a fight for its political survival. With the Sena and the NCP already split into two factions, a poor performance in the Assembly elections could raise serious questions about their future. Despite their success in the Lok Sabha elections, the Assembly polls will present a different set of challenges. This election also serves as a critical test for veteran NCP leader Sharad Pawar, who not only needs to secure a win but also restore unity within his party and strengthen his position within the MVA. Similarly, Nana Patole of the Congress and Uddhav Thackeray are under pressure, not just to win the election but also to ensure their respective parties are able to assert their leadership within the MVA.
According to political pundits, this upcoming election will challenge each political party individually, providing them with a clearer position in front of the voters. In the 2024 Lok Sabha election, these factions contested under their respective alliances, where the MVA outperformed the ruling Mahayuti alliance, securing 30 out of 48 seats, while the BJP-led Mahayuti managed to win just 17 seats. However, in the 2019 assembly elections, many of these parties contested together, such as the undivided Shiv Sena and the NCP. Since then, both parties have split into two factions: Uddhav Thackeray’s Shiv Sena, which joined the Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA), and Eknath Shinde’s faction, which aligned with the BJP. Similarly, Sharad Pawar’s NCP joined forces with Congress to form the MVA, while Ajit Pawar’s NCP faction allied with the BJP to create the Mahayuti alliance.