The Congress’ poor show in the recently-held Assembly elections has come as a silent blessing for its I.N.D.I.A. bloc allies like the Trinamool Congress and fireworks are expected at the meeting of the bloc parties to be held at the residence of Congress president Mallikarjun Kharge on Tuesday, 19 December.
Since the meeting is to take up the issue of seat-sharing, the Congress’ poor showing could place it on the defensive at the meeting. Some alliance partners have already criticised Congress’ performance, with some questioning its leadership and effectiveness. This could fuel internal tensions and make it harder to present a united front against the BJP, say political observers.
Sources close to West Bengal Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee say she plans to play hardball when seatsharing talks take place, citing the Congress’ poor show and “unwinnable” track record. In contrast, she will put forward the track record of the Trinamool Congress in successfully fighting off the BJP in West Bengal in election after election.
TMC wants to corner as many seats as possible and also queer the pitch for Mamata critic Adhir Chowdhury who holds one of the two Lok Sabha seats that are with the Congress party and has been consistent in his opposition to the Trinamool Congress and Mamata Banerjee, sources say.
Kunal Ghosh, the Trinamool Congress’ chief spokesperson, told The Sunday Guardian: “The I.N.D.I.A bloc members have to accept that the Trinamool Congress is the main challenger to the BJP. The Trinamool Congress is the only party which has consistently beaten the BJP comprehensively in every election, be it the Lok Sabha, Assembly or panchayat polls. There is no other leader in the country who can even remotely come close to Mamata Banerjee’s record. That is why the country now requires the charisma of Mamata Banerjee and the formidable organisational skills of Abhishek Banerjee to beat the BJP.”
Says Prof Biswanath Chakraborty, psephologist and professor of political science at Rabindra Bharati University in Kolkata: “Congress, being the largest party in the bloc, has historically held significant influence in seat-sharing arrangements and overall decision-making. However, its losses weaken its bargaining power, making smaller parties more assertive and potentially demanding greater concessions in future negotiations.”
Another important bloc member and Samajwadi Party chief Akhilesh Yadav, speaking at the India News Manch 2023, a three-day event organised by the ITV Network in New Delhi, asserted that seat sharing in the I.N.D.I.A bloc would be easy now after the Congress’ defeat in Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, and Chhattisgarh, as the ego that the party carried for long has been neutralised.
Md Selim, Politburo member of the CPM, another bloc constituent, told The Sunday Guardian: “Mamata Banerjee will definitely try to ensure that the Congress is weakened further. I would expect Mamata to do it not because of any other reason but to earn brownie points with Prime Minister Narendra Modi, whom she is supposed to meet the very next day. After all, she needs PM Modi’s blessings to save her beloved nephew and herself from any big action that the Central agencies like the Enforcement Directorate and the CBI may take on the cases of corruption.”
The West Bengal Chief Minister is expected to meet the Prime Minister and raise the issue of the Centre’s funds to the state that are on hold.
However, Bengal BJP chief Sukanta Majumdar downplayed the significance of the Chief Minister meeting the Prime Minister and said: “It’s the Chief Minister who wants to see the PM, and it’s not a meeting. The Prime Minister has merely given time, which he would have done for any other Chief Minister.”
Majumdar added: “If Pinarayi Vijayan, the Kerala CM, whose party has the strongest ideological difference with the BJP, seeks time, the Prime Minister would definitely give time. There’s nothing new. If Naveen Patnaik, the Odisha CM asks for it, or any Congress Chief Minister… this is protocol,” Majumdar said. “In West Bengal, protocol is not followed. If any MLA, MP seeks time, the Chief Minister doesn’t provide it,” he claimed.
Observers say that the electoral losses in the three big states of Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, and Chhattisgarh have dampened the morale of both the Congress and the bloc as a whole. This could lead to a sense of discouragement and make it harder to mobilise voters and resources for the upcoming Lok Sabha elections.
They say that with Congress’ diminished influence, other parties within the bloc might gain more prominence. This could lead to a redistribution of power and a change in the leadership structure of the alliance.
Already, on 12 December, Mamata Banerjee told a meeting in Siliguri that she would lead the I.N.D.I.A. bloc.
However other bloc constituents like the Congress and the CPM immediately brushed off the thought. If internal tensions and disagreements escalate, there is a risk of the bloc fracturing. This would further weaken the Opposition and benefit the BJP.