New Delhi: Feedback sent by local agencies and state leadership to Delhi has indicated that the BJP may find it difficult to come to power in the Jharkhand Assembly elections that are scheduled to be held next month. As per reports, the slew of financial schemes that the Hemant Soren led I.N.D.I.A bloc government in the state has been executing since coming to power, aided by a few new ones that have been announced in the past few months have created a favourable situation for the ruling Jharkhand Mukti Morcha (JMM).
On top of that, Soren being arrested and kept in prison for five months on charges of corruption and the failure of the investigative agencies to present strong proof that would have denied his bail application, has been successfully converted by Hemant and his wife Kalpana as an instance of “atrocity” on tribals by the BJP government in a state where more than one quarter of the entire population is from the tribal community. The JMM leadership’s accusations that the Central government is refusing to release the payment for political reasons of more than Rs 1.36 lakh crore to Jharkhand that the state government is liable to receive from the coal companies, too is resonating on the ground.
Recently, Chief Minister Hemant Soren had written a letter to Prime Minister Narendra Modi urging the Central government to release dues to the tune of Rs 136,042 crore pending as of March 2022 payable to the state exchequer from the coal companies operating in Jharkhand. In the letter, Soren had stated that he was not asking for special status like the BJP-allied states, nor was he asking for a bigger share of the Union Budget, rather the demand is only for justice, not for privileges and claimed that when he demanded the rights of Jharkhandis, he was put in jail. He had written a similar letter in March 2022.
In the Assembly of 81 members, the JMM presently has 25 members, while the Congress has 17 MLAs. As per the survey done by I.N.D.I.A bloc, while the Congress’ tally might come down by 3-4 seats if they do not change the incumbent MLAs, the JMM’s share will cross 30 seats.
Ranchi-based political observers said that money bags of the state are putting more effort into getting tickets from the I.N.D.I.A bloc rather than the National Democratic Alliance, indicating the political direction on the ground.
Similarly, the high profile induction of JMM rebel and former CM Champai Soren is not making the state-wide impact that national leaders based in Delhi had imagined. According to state based BJP leaders, BJP state president Babu Lal Marandi continues to remain their most popular leader and the party’s face in the state.
Functionaries associated with BJP-allied organizations said that unless the “Modi factor” (referring to the popularity of Prime Minister Modi) works for the BJP during the campaign, the I.N.D.I.A bloc is likely to win the elections. According to reports, various schemes implemented by the state government, which provide each household classified as “poor” with approximately Rs 4,000-5,000 per month, have fostered a perception of pro-incumbency.
Among these schemes are Jharkhand e-Kalyan Scholarship, Tejaswini Yojana, Mukhya Mantri Sukanya Yojana, and Mukhyamantri Rajya Vridhavastha Pension Yojana (MRVPY), which are giving financial aid to the state’s disadvantaged populations, ensuring access to education and economic security. Under the Jharkhand e-Kalyan Scholarship, students from Scheduled Tribes (ST), Scheduled Castes (SC), and Other Backward Classes (OBC) pursuing higher education are being given financial support for tuition and related educational expenses for courses in undergraduate, postgraduate, and technical programs. To be eligible, students must be residents of Jharkhand, belong to the SC, ST, or OBC categories, and their family income should not exceed Rs 2.5 lakhs per annum for SC/ST students and Rs1.5 lakhs per annum for OBC students. The scholarship amount is being transferred directly to the beneficiaries’ bank accounts through the Direct Benefit Transfer (DBT) system, ensuring transparency and preventing delays.
Under the Tejaswini Yojana, targeting the empowerment of adolescent girls and young women between the ages of 14 and 24, up to Rs 10,000 in financial support is being provided for vocational training and small-scale business ventures. The stated goal is to prevent early marriages and enable women to become financially independent. The scheme is available to girls from economically weaker sections who are not currently enrolled in formal education.
Similarly, under the Mukhya Mantri Sukanya Yojana, financial support to girls is being given from the time of birth until they complete their education, thereby encouraging families to educate their daughters instead of marrying them off early. The scheme offers Rs 5,000 at the time of birth, Rs 5,000 when the girl enrols in Class 1, Rs 5,000 at Class 5, Rs 5,000 at Class 8, and Rs 20,000 when she completes Class 12 or turns 18, whichever comes first.
Apart from female students, the state government has been executing schemes for the elderly too that has blunted anti-incumbency. Under the Mukhyamantri Rajya Vridhavastha Pension Yojana (MRVPY) a monthly pension of Rs 1,000 is being given to elderly citizens, particularly women, tribals, and Dalits aged 50 and above who have no stable source of income and are economically vulnerable. Initially, this pension was available only to citizens over the age of 60, but the scheme has been amended to include marginalized groups starting at 50.
Earlier this year, the state government launched two schemes—the Guruji Student Credit Card scheme which offers collateral-free education loans up to Rs 15 lakh at a 4% annual interest rate, with repayment starting one year after course completion. The government acts as the guarantor for these loans. Another scheme, the “Manki Munda” scholarship too, was started which incentivizes girls to pursue technical education by providing Rs 15,000 per year for diploma courses and Rs 30,000 per year for engineering courses.
Apart from focusing on girl students, senior citizens and the caste and community voters, recently Hemant Soren announced a loan waiver of up to Rs 2 lakh for farmers, which will benefit 176,977 farmers as loans worth Rs 400.66 crore were waived off.
As per a research by a leading media organization, based on the 2023-2024 budget estimates, Jharkhand had a debt-to-GDP ratio of 27%, which is described as “moderate”. Arunachal Pradesh with 53% ration was nearing a critical level of debt, followed by Punjab (46.8%), West Bengal (37.1%), Kerala (36.6%), Bihar (35.7%), Andhra Pradesh (33.3%) and Madhya Pradesh (30%). States with low ratios included Odisha (13.1%), Gujarat (15.3%), and Maharashtra (18.2%).
The debt-to-GDP ratio is considered as a key economic indicator that compares a state’s total debt to its gross domestic product (GDP) and provides insights into a state’s financial health and its ability to manage and repay its debt.