President Trump and his team are approaching this phase in ways no one has seen before. Meanwhile, entrenched, competing power bases are fighting back.
Washington, D.C.: In the United States, the period after a Presidential election and before the new administration takes office is like a once every four years political Christmas season, with the incoming President and his team making up lists of who was naughty and who was nice.
And, given the experience President Trump had the last time he was in this position, he and his team are approaching this phase in ways no one has seen before. Meanwhile, entrenched, competing power bases are fighting back, and some are trying to take advantage of the distractions to slip through policies that would never fly after inauguration.
Here is a brief taste of some of what’s going on.
‘WHAT JOB DO YOU WANT?’
After each Presidential election in the United States, there is a large-scale turnover in personnel as thousands of political appointees leave and new ones replace them. This period of “transition” exists even if the incumbent President is re-elected. Barack Obama’s Secretary of State, for example, was Hillary Clinton in his first term, and John Kerry in his second term. If there is a change in party, even more changes in personnel are made.
As a result, the most popular book in Washington right now is the Plum Book. This U.S. government publication lists over 9,000 federal civil service jobs that “may be subject to noncompetitive appointments”—in other words, that an incoming Presidential administration can potentially fill with people of their choice.
The big division is the top jobs—like Secretary of Defense and State—that will need confirmation by the Senate, and the thousands of lower-level jobs that can be straight-up appointments. The top jobs include the people who will work most closely with President Trump and he is reportedly very involved in the selection of his team.
For the lower level jobs the process is more opaque (to me at least). One of the functions of the oft-cited Project 2025 was to pre-vet people for a range of positions, easing the process for Trump’s transition team. Others will also suggest candidates, including members of Congress, donors, lobbyists, think tanks, etc.
And there are a lot of jobs to go around. Would you like to be the Chairman of the Advisory Council on Historic Preservation? The current Chair’s tenure expires on January 19th, 2025.
Some call/text/email their resumes to everyone they know who might know/is related to someone who knows someone on the transition team. The more restrained candidates hope their years or even decades of quiet service will be noticed by those who matter.
What they all have in common is the hope that they will get that call asking “what job do you want?” At which point they will have their list of Plum Book approved job titles at the ready.
FIGHTING YOUR OWN TEAM
A notable aspect of this transition is that not only is there a change of party from Democrat to Republican, but it is a specific sort of Republican. The MAGA movement brought a new coalition of voters to the polls—including many Trump voters who don’t necessarily support the “traditional” Republican party of Mitt Romney or George Bush. And it was mutual—many of those “traditional” Republican leaders, like Dick Cheney, supported Kamala Harris over Trump.
The result is the “Trumplicans” in the White House are already coming up against attempts to thwart their agenda by Republican leaders in the legislature, including the Senate. The first setback for the incoming administration was when, soon after the Presidential election, Senator John Thune was elected by his peers as Senate Majority Leader. Thune is seen as close to former leader Mitch McConnell who is, to put it mildly, not MAGA.
This has also meant that, for example, Trump’s pick for Attorney General had to be withdrawn when it became clear not enough Republican Senators supported his confirmation.
This isn’t going without a counter from Team Trump and their supporters. Elon Musk, for example, tweeted that his Political Action Committee (PAC) will stay active and “play a significant role in primaries” in 2026. This is a not-so-subtle hint to Republicans not on the Trump train that they may face challenges in getting re-elected and be left behind on the platform, so to speak.
DEATH AND REBIRTH OF THE MEDIA
There has been a transformation of the media landscape in the lead-up to, and following, the election. Since the election, left-leaning TV channel MSNBC is down 38% in viewership, CNN is down 27%, and Fox is up 41%. MSNBC’s parent company is now trying to sell it off.
Beyond that, podcasts have shown their reach. Trump’s appearance on Joe Rogan logged over 52 million views on YouTube—and Rogan says that was with YouTube’s attempt to “suppress” the episode. That’s more than watched the Trump-Biden debate on TV.
There is now also the option to dig deep into specific areas with those intimately involved. For raw information, especially on MAGA world and the trench warfare involved in the transition, people turn to the engine room—Steve Bannon’s WarRoom. Meanwhile, those wanting to see raw data on polling are watching people like Rich Baris—one of the most accurate pollsters of the cycle—breaking down the numbers.
And, of course, X is in a category of its own. As Musk recently tweeted “You are so much more than the media now.”
TRYING TO PULL A FAST ONE
In the midst of all this some are trying to do things that are unlikely to be possible once Trump becomes the 47th President of the United States of America. For example, the Senate quickly approved a set of judges that could have had difficulty passing the scrutiny of a Republican-controlled Senate and a Trump administration.
While that move got some coverage, others are flying under the radar. Trump has been clear border security is a priority, however the focus has been the continental United States. Meanwhile, in the Commonwealth of Northern Mariana Islands (CNMI)—a U.S. territory north of Guam that shares a maritime border with Japan—Chinese citizens can, and do, arrive without a visa.
They aren’t supposed to leave CNMI, but Chinese citizens been found illegally taking boats to Guam, where some have been found trespassing on a U.S. military base. Others have used the U.S. postal service to distribute drugs, and some have illegally bought U.S. driver licences.
In spite of a letter from dozens of Members of Congress “strongly urging” Homeland Security to require the Chinese coming to CNMI to have the same B-1/B-2 visa requirements the Chinese need to visit anywhere else in the U.S., President Biden’s administration refused to close the loophole.
Announcing it would close the loophole and would be an easy win for the incoming Trump Administration, if it had time to do so amidst the thousands of other fights swirling in the storm and fury of the transition. Given the lack of attention, those in CNMI who want even closer ties to China are using the distraction of the transition to try to push for even more.
Elements within CNMI have asked Biden’s Department of Transportation to lift the cap on flights direct from China, which would mean unlimited Chinese could arrive direct from China, without B-1/B-2 visas. According to reporting in Marianas Variety, Department of Transportation Assistant Secretary of Aviation and International Affairs Carol Petsonk replied that the request for the exemption “is currently pending before the department” and that “we are giving [it] full and careful consideration”.
According to the Plum Book, Ms Petsonk’s job is a Presidential appointment with Senate confirmation. She may only have until January 19th to complete her consideration. It’s worth keeping an eye on—along with countless other moving parts as gears move within gears.
Anything can happen during a transition. Especially this one.
* Cleo Paskal is Non-Resident Senior Fellow at the Foundation for Defence of Democracies and columnist with The Sunday Guardian.