London: The Queen’s Speech introduced Boris Johnson’s priorities: Brexit and trade agreements, the unitedness of the United Kingdom, national security in all its forms, improved education and social services, investment in Research & Development and support for the Armed Forces, and as speculated last week repealing the unpopular Fixed Term Parliament Act, in effect a People’s Government.
The House of Commons passed the Withdrawal Agreement Bill (WAB), the domestic legislation to make into UK law the Withdrawal Agreement treaty, with 358 votes for and 234 against; its passing was never in doubt as since the last reading the Conservatives have an emphatic election majority, the against were SNP and Labour MPs (minus six Labour MPs who voted for the WAB).
There are a few important differences since the WAB’s first reading: Parliament’s role in negotiations has been removed and the sections on EU worker’s rights is expected to be replaced by a new fair employment bill, a new fair points-based immigration system is on the way, an extension to the transition period beyond 31st December 2020 is no longer possible without further primary legislation(although the EU has said a trade deal is not possible in this timescale), it adds the House of Lords to the powers of scrutiny over new EU laws during the transition period, on the UK-EU joint committee only Ministers (not senior officials) will be allowed as co-chair. In two new amendments to the WAB: the first states pre-Brexit ECJ judgements are no longer binding- the Government can now transfer the Independent Monitoring Authority functions into a different public body and empower it; and the second dilutes unaccompanied children’s asylum protections. There are no changes to the agreed protocol on Northern Ireland. It looks like the Government is not averse to a “harder” Brexit.
The next step is 3 days of scrutiny from 7-9th January, the oppositions will try to prolong this; Nicola Sturgeon wants self-determination for Scotland and has already positioned her 48 MP’s to “ensure a transfer of power is made-from Westminster to Holyrood-so that a fresh independence referendum is put beyond legal challenge”, but even if SNP are supported by Labour they are not enough to hold up approval against 318 Conservatives.
In addition to folding DexEU into a new super-Business Department, folks are expecting Dominic Cummings and Mark Sedwill to shake up Whitehall and introduce reforms into the House of Lords- the first of steps towards reforming the UK political system and aspects of the constitution. The Lords reform would bolster the case for the Union against Scottish Nationalists. Also expected is a join-up of the FCO and the Department for International Aid, and a new Energy and Climate change Department.
Datapraxis estimated that Labour lost 1.1million Remain voters and 900,000 Leave voters between 2017-2019- And 300,00 Labour Remain-supporting voters are estimated to have switched to the Conservatives. Now Johnson has broken the Red Wall, he can retake the agenda and deliver for the +40% in the top four socio-economic classes that voted Conservative.
It has been rewarding to see the former Prime Minister Theresa May in vocal, dignified and genuine support of Johnson’s WAB. Jeremy Corbyn is in a snit and refusing to engage politely with Johnson; Labour’s contest for a new Leader has already begun with Emily Thornberry and Clive Lewis declaring.
The Chief of Defense Staff General Sir Nick Carter gave his annual speech at RUSI, comparing the present time to the first decade of the last century. He said “the trends are not positive. For example, the number non-International Armed Conflicts (i.e. those in which the provisions of the Geneva Convention are limited) is rising – according to the ICRC’s legal classification the number has increased from fewer than 30 to more than 70 in the last few years. Daesh, and the extremist ideas it represents, has absolutely not been defeated- indeed the threat from terrorism has proliferated… And the conditions in parts of the world are not conducive to reducing the growth of extremism”. The General examined the character of modern and political warfare and what is needed in the nation’s arsenal to be competitive.
He is suggesting a comprehensive Strategic Defence and Security Review that would incorporate: an assessment of “net assessment that determines where our current trajectory will take us in 2030 relative to those of our competitors…. investment in persistent and forward engagement to establish networks, identify opportunities and develop relationships with allies and partners…. A Defence review needs to do this at the same time as creating adequate headroom for us to modernise. Our modernised force will be framed through the integration of five Domains: Space, Cyber and Information, Maritime, Air and Land…. it is salutary to be reminded – as Rand did 15 years ago – that hardly any of the great military inventions of the last century emerged directly from a military requirement. They came from the outside world – and we are unlikely to develop the capabilities we need unless we do so in partnership with the private sector where most of the innovation in technology is to be found”.
It is a dramatic speech that emphasises this exceptionally volatile and risky moment in global history and the importance of strategic long-term planning.
The Times reported that Dominic Cummings, Johnson’s senior aide, is to head up an overdue defence procurement and foreign policy review, assisted by John Bew, a Professor of history, statecraft and foreign affairs; Bew was involved in the border negotiation with Taoiseach Leo Varadkar in Ireland. Cummings is known to be interested in AI, cybersecurity, the UK’s capability to adapt to new threats, and admires and the US Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency (DARPA) it is thought that setting up the UK’s first Space Command was his initiative.
In September Lieutenant General Jonathon Riley drew attention to how the consequences of Theresa May’s WA had not been understood or scrutinised. He wrote “…the May government sought to lock Britain into various EU structures that were created in order to establish control of Europe’s defence by the EU Commission – these include the European Defence Fund, the European Defence Agency and the Permanent Structured Cooperation PESCO mechanism.” It is hoped that Johnson has reacted to these warnings that also came from Professor GwythianPrins and Rear-Admiral Roger Lane-Nott, and that they will part of the scrutiny in Parliament in the New Year.