Marine Le Pen banned from running for office for five years ahead of France’s 2027 general election amid rising nationalism.
Britain seems to have got off relatively favourably on Liberation day; this is a benefit that Brexit can claim as UK is no longer obliged send a whopping percentage of tariffs to Brussels thus making UK tariffs more reasonable than the EU’s. In time US President Donald Trump’s tariff impositions are likely to be balanced by US tax cuts, this in turn will lead to individuals having more money in their pockets and businesses having lower overheads, which will have the effect of negating the tariffs, and this can be seen as a win-win for the USA. In Trump’s equation of tariff and non-tariff factors it appears the UK and US are genuinely reciprocal. UK Business Secretary Jonathan Reynolds intends to move forward with “pragmatic and balanced” negotiations towards an FTA; that is if Reynolds can avoid a conversation around free speech in the UK, whereby the hapless Livia Tossici-Bolt has been ordered to pay £20,000, for holding a sign inside an abortion clinic’s buffer zone thereby breaching the Public Spaces Protection Order. The sign read “here to talk- if you want”, it was found to have a possible detrimental effect on women attending the clinic, staff and associates or other members of the public.
Campaigns are marching on towards the UK 1 May local elections, which so far have been delayed naming new boundaries/fear of ReformUK seizing Labour’s votes. ReformUK are standing 1,638 candidates across 99.8% of the wards up for election this May, surpassing any other party.. Politicos and pundits say ReformUK are expected to snatch votes from both the Labour and Conservative parties, in fact ReformUK gained a seat from the Liberal Democrats this week. The polls have the three contending parties more or less on equal footings, ranging alternately between 23-24-25%. Let us imagine a three-way split with each party getting 20% of the vote, this leaves 40% of undecided voters giving all three parties all to play for.
The Nigel Farage vs Rupert Lowe debacle/divorce does not seem to have reached beyond Westminster and their respective constituencies. The fallout began when Farage wanted to reach out to a wider vote base and Lowe was attracting substantial online support for his focus on illegal immigrants being
ReformUK are taking steps to be a bonafide political party, although as of 18 February 2025 they are still registered as a Private Company limited by guarantee with just two Directors, Farage and Yusuf. Where ReformUK have missed a trick is becoming the unofficial “official” opposition to Labour; the Tory Leader Kemi Badenoch has failed to impress at the dispatch box and is now said to be seeking the help of former Prime Minister David Cameron. Under Badenoch the Conservative Shadow Bench is a shadow of its former self. Tory Shadow Secretaries are rarely in the news, folks had almost forgotten Priti Patel was Shadow Foreign Secretary until she forced Labour Ministers back to Parliament this week to face scrutiny over their secretive deal to surrender sovereignty of the Chagos islands forcing British taxpayers to pay billions to the government of Mauritius. Also Robert Jenrick, the Conservative Shadow Secretary of Justice has made a terrific impression this week, resulting in the reversal of the new two-tier sentencing proposed by the Sentencing Council, which would have allowed people from ethnic minorities to have lesser sentences. In a similar vein Rupert Lowe would have made a perfect ReformUK Home Ministry spokesman. Yusuf was supposed to be professionalising and democratising the party, if he had set up a Reform UK Shadow Bench their impact in Parliament could have been much greater.
If Nigel Farage wants to be the next UK PM, it might be a good idea to step back from day to day operations and to start pulling together a “cabinet” and policies which supporters can relate to. If Yusuf is to facilitate Farage’s rise candidate selection needs to be discriminating, not the current never mind the quality approach.
The competitions for all three parties in the local elections are independent candidates with sectarian backgrounds. These are on the increase in council elections and already there are 5 MPs in the House of Commons. Wes Streeting, arguably Labour’s most popular Secretary of State, only kept his constituency seat in Ilford North by 500 votes due to pressure from pro-Palestinian independents. Recently independent candidate Noor Jahan Begum won the Redbridge council seat in a by-election with 1,080 votes against Labour’s incumbent who received only 663, her first priority during her campaign was “To support an immediate ceasefire and increase humanitarian aid for Palestine”. These sectarian candidates have realised that under Labour they have an opportunity to present their version of identity politics.
Right wing parties across Europe are having resurgence, over the years France has allowed exponential immigration and the Leader of the populist French nationalist party, Marine Le Pen of National Rally, who shares similar views to Rupert Lowe on deportations, has been banned from running for public office for five years, the French general election is in 2027. Le Pen’s supporters have increased since the sentence, she has vowed to appeal and many believe the harsh sentence will only increase her popularity. After a parallel treatment of the Romanian Cálin Georgescu many are accusing the European countries of “democratic backsliding”.
The Trump effect is apparent in Germany, a recent DeuchtslandTrend survey found that support for the new fragile CDU/CSU+SPD coalition is waning with the AfD benefitting, the AfD hold almost a quarter of the seats in the Bundestag (21%). This week the survey found that the CDU/CSU support had crashed to 26%, a new low since 2022, while the AfD achieved an unprecedented 24%. It is uncertain how the US’s tariffs will affect EU’s unity?