Uncertainties and extreme regional positions or posturing by some of the constituents of the Indian National Developmental Inclusive Alliance (I.N.D.I.A.), could compel the Congress to also prepare a Plan “B” for the forthcoming Lok Sabha elections.
Without doubt the Congress is the nucleus of this alliance, and therefore it would be hurt the most, if the allies continue to safeguard only their interests in order to enhance their prospects, without looking at the overall picture which they may choose to ignore.
In West Bengal, Mamata Banerjee is adamant that she would not share any seats with either the Left parties or the Congress. From her own standpoint, she is right, as she has the capacity of winning a large number of seats on her own steam. However, by not accommodating the I.N.D.I.A. partners, she would perhaps be infringing the coalition spirit. Adhir Ranjan Chowdhury, leader of the Congress in the Lok Sabha has already made his intentions known. He is the reason why his party is still around in the state and in order to stake claim for some seats, he has started attacking Mamata.
There are a lot of differences which have cropped up between the Congress and the AAP in Delhi and Punjab, and unless they are ironed out fast, the grand old party could face a virtual split in its ranks; a group opposing the alliance and another supporting it, as is evident from the current developments.
In Bihar, the Janata Dal (United) and the RJD would be determining what seats to give to the Congress, and this would be true even in Uttar Pradesh where SP would call the shots, and some other parts. The Congress needs to revive in these states, in order to remain relevant in national politics. It should be not there because of the largesse of these parties or because of their generosity. There has to be hard bargaining and therefore those entrusted with the task by the Congress should not give in.
In Tamil Nadu, the DMK, by raking the Sanatan Dharma controversy has hurt the coalition partners in the North, and have given the BJP a handle to attack the I.N.D.I.A. combination, terming it as “anti Hindu”. It is important that nothing that could damage the prospects of the Alliance should be said or done.
In Maharashtra, the Congress has to ensure that Sharad Pawar, with nothing in his pocket, so far as influence and backing are concerned, does not manage to get some of the party’s winning seats. If both the Congress and the Shiv Sena (Uddhav Thackeray) contest sincerely, the BJP and its allies would have a lot to worry about.
The vulnerability and fragility of the I.N.D.I.A. combination is already visible, and what needs to be kept in mind is that many of the constituents, who are now flexing muscles against the ruling dispensation at the Centre, have been allies of the BJP in the past. They shall not have any difficulty in doing business with the saffron brigade if it becomes necessary. The I.N.D.I.A. alliance, has only increased their bargaining power outside the fold.
The BJP has its own set of problems. Its organization may appear to be mighty, but the reality could be different. What happened to the Congress in UP and Bihar during P.V. Narasimha Rao’s tenure, could happen to the BJP in some States, with the claims of loyalists within the party being overlooked to accommodate those who have come from other outfits. The most conspicuous experiment could take place in Maharashtra.
The Congress high command is aware of all these difficulties which are inherent in the I.N.D.I.A. combine, and it should not be surprising that a Plan “B” may have already been initiated. In case, it has not been, it should be, in the party’s overall interests which the Congress leadership needs to protect. The allies have their own agenda.
Many political analysts fear that the I.N.D.I.A. bloc could collapse or break closer to the elections, and this is something which the BJP too would want. The BJP could tempt some of the Opposition parties with all kinds of allurements, which they may find it hard to ignore.
The point is that politics is a game of possibilities. Without casting any aspersions on any of the partners, the Congress has to be prepared to independently deal with unexpected situations that could arise. The party has Mallikarjun Kharge, a very seasoned and mature political leader as its head, and he needs to be empowered more, so he can take decisions which were more suited for the future.
It is true that Rahul Gandhi’s image has had a makeover, but by giving him prominence more than what he should be getting, the Congress could be damaging itself. His advisers, many of whom lack the experience and gravitas, should stop interfering in day-to-day affairs, to enable Kharge to take the party forward.
A lot also depends on the outcome of the state elections, and if the Congress emerges stronger, it may not be liked by the allies. For the allies, a weak Congress was more suitable than the robust one and in some-way, the objectives of the partners as well as the NDA, in diminishing the influence of the Congress, could be similar.
The Congress has to have a two-pronged strategy. One that involves the allies and the other which is solely in its own interest. Otherwise, the consequences would be grave and detrimental in its overall interests. Between us.