Even as curtains come down on a turbulent year underlined by the deceleration of the world economy, the growth acceleration of the Indian economy in H1 of FY24 presents a happy contrast with India expected to comfortably achieve a GDP uptick over 6.5 per cent in FY24, buoyed by the betterthan-expected growth in Q2 of FY24 and the emergence of India as the fastest-growing major economy in H1 of FY24 improving the growth prospects, according to the half yearly review of the Finance Ministry.
The review however, notes that globally, trends are different with geopolitical tensions persisting, a tightened monetary stance which has weakened global economic activity and increases in policy rates that have tempered inflation but not enough to lower it to country targets. The report cautions about a prolonged monetary tightening which can cause a still lower growth of the global output.
The report builds an optimistic narrative for India on various domestic and international agencies which have been prompted to upgrade their GDP growth projections for FY24, as the momentum gained in Q2 of FY24 appeared likely to be sustained in Q3 as well. India’s real GDP grew by a healthy 7.6 per cent on a YoY basis in Q2 of FY 2024.
This growth is not only higher than the median projections of 6.8 per cent by professional forecasters but also their highest projection of 7.4 per cent. The resilient performance has led to a real GDP growth of 7.7 per cent in H1 of FY24, prompting RBI to revise the full-year growth projection from 6.5 per cent to 7.0 per cent, the review observes.
The Finance Ministry flags trends which signal continued momentum in the coming months. Resilient consumption and investment have driven up the growth rate in H1. The government capex has increased the investment rate while private investment is showing promise. The strong domestic demand has consequently induced a significant increase in manufacturing and services value-add.
Besides, high frequency indicators for October and November 2023 reflected robust economic activity and PMI Manufacturing and Services remained in the expansionary zone in October and November. The October 2023 imprints of the IIP also highlight sustained growth in manufacturing activity.
Moreover, sentiments in the services sector remain upbeat, driven, among others, by an upswing in the tourism cum hotel industry induced by leisure travel, business travel, and social events. The Finance Ministry expects growth in consumption demand to be sustained, urban demand conditions to remain resilient with higher growth in auto sales, fuel consumption and UPI transactions as well as rural demand to catch up, as reflected in robust growth in two and three-wheelers sales.
Signs of strengthened rural demand are evident in the growth of fast-moving consumer goods (FMCG), two-wheelers, and tractor sales. An increase in real rural wages, backed by a decline in inflation, has further contributed to the strengthening of rural consumption. Moreover, higher kharif production and enhanced Minimum Support Price (MSP) have augmented rural income, strengthening rural consumption.
The review quotes the CVoters’ latest Quarterly Consumer Optimism Report, based on the survey conducted in November 2023 among 12,800 respondents representing all socioeconomic, age and ethnic categories in the country, highlights that rural India has become more optimistic than urban India.
There is a steady and consistent rise in the proportion of respondents who say their standard of living has improved over the last year. Further, a big majority of consumers have experienced a rise in income or stability in family incomes. Most of the respondents (both rural and urban) expect their family income to increase in the next three months.
Challenges perceived by urban and rural India are equal. Consumers from rural India do not perceive any incremental distress over urban India. Highlighting a promising outlook for India’s external sector, as seen in the November releases of trade balances for both services and merchandise, the review underlines the relatively stable Indian rupee against the US dollar and other prominent currencies and adequate foreign exchange reserves which add to the optimism.
This sanguinity is visible in the resurgence of foreign portfolio investments since November 2023 and in FY24 in general, compared to FY23. Foreign investment inflows are also helping the Indian stock market indices to climb new heights, reflecting broad-based optimism on growth among domestic and foreign investors on growth prospects. Risks to growth and stability outlook mainly emanate from outside the country.
On the flip side, the weakness in global trade emerging from the global conflicts and slowing of the global output have led to merchandise exports and imports of India contracting in H1 of FY24 but in a manner that has improved the merchandise trade deficit. Seen with a growing surplus on the services trade account, the current account deficit is expected to narrow in H1 of FY24.
The Foreign Portfolio Investments (FPIs) further fuelled optimism as they became net buyers during H1 of FY24, in contrast to being net sellers during H1 of FY23. Amidst the fiscal risks prevailing globally, the government has been carefully monitoring public spending to achieve fiscal consolidation.
To this end, expenditures have been re-prioritised towards the immediate requirement of safeguarding the vulnerable. Re-prioritisation, however, has not compromised the government’s longer-term objective of strengthening productive, the Finance Ministry assures.