NEW DELHI: If the exit poll predictions are confirmed by the actual results, it will signify strong voter endorsement of Narendra Modi and his policies over the past decade.
Narendra Modi is expected to return to power, as was widely expected, for the third time as the Prime Minister of India, with all the pollsters and exit polls on Saturday predicting the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) winning more than 350 seats. The results of the elections will be declared on 4 June.
If the exit poll predictions are confirmed by the actual results, it will signify strong voter endorsement of Narendra Modi and his policies executed over the past decade.
This outcome would indicate that PM Modi was successfully able to navigate through huge challenges that were posed by two terms of anti-incumbency against many Members of Parliament, the Covid-19 pandemic, employment issues and inflation.
This will be a much bigger win in the political sense than 2014 and 2019, as this was the first election in the last 10 years when the entire Opposition, barring a few, came together to fight the elections against PM Modi jointly. The battles that PM Modi fought from 2019 to 2024 were much more challenging than what he had experienced earlier.
It is expected that the PM and his close advisors would also have access to similar poll surveys that are done by non-media companies and are often more accurate.
The 73-year-old Modi did 206 public engagements, including rallies, events and roadshows and 80 interviews with the media in fewer than 45 days since the elections began. This comes to five rallies every day, while crisscrossing the country.
While the I.N.D.I. Alliance leaders and supporters were hopeful of a good show in Bihar that sends 40 MPs at least, which would have stopped the NDA below 300 seats, veteran journalists based in Patna had indicated that despite being upset with their local leaders and MPs, voters were voting for the NDA just because of PM Modi, who did an unprecedented 15 rallies and road shows in the state to assuage the anger against his MPs.
Similar was the case in Madhya Pradesh where there was significant anger against local leaders.
After the polling ended and the results started coming in, PM Modi, in a series of tweets on “X” thanked party workers for their efforts during the election, while expressing confidence that people of the country had voted in large numbers for the BJP and its alliance partners. He also attacked the I.N.D.I Alliance while stating that it had failed to strike a chord with the voters.
The exit poll results were announced after the seventh and the last phase of the polling, spread across 44 days, ended in the evening. Out of the roughly 97 crore people eligible to vote, it is expected that close to 68 crore people have voted.
The exit poll conducted by Newsx-India News, the sister concern of The Sunday Guardian, in collaboration with D-Dynamics predicted 315 seats for the BJP alone, going above the 303 that it got in the last elections. The NDA is expected to win 371 seats. The I.N.D.I Alliance is likely to win on 125 seats, with the non-aligned parties winning on 47 seats.
To put it in context, in 2019, an average of 13 exit polls had put the NDA’s combined tally at 306 and the UPA’s at 120. This proved to be an underestimation, with the NDA going to win on 353 seats, out of which BJP alone won on 303 seats.
Apart from the result of the Newsx-India News exit polls, the exit poll survey released by Dainik Bhaskar has predicted 285-350 seats for the NDA, 145-201 for I.N.D.I Alliance and 33-49 for others.
As per Today’s Chanakya, which had not released its completed result till night, the BJP was likely to become the largest party in Bengal by winning as many as 29 seats of the total 42 seats in the state.
This was on the lines of C-Voter survey which too has predicted a stupendous performance of the BJP in West Bengal.
In Bihar, Today’s Chanakya has predicted a bad performance of the opposition while indicating that the NDA is likely to win all 40 seats with a margin of 4 seats.
Similarly, Jan Ki Baat has stated that NDA will win on 362-392 seats, the I.N.D.I.A bloc on 141-161 seats, with others getting 10-20 seats.
Exit polls by Republic Bharat-Matrize have given similar numbers while predicting 353-368 for NDA, 118-133 for the I.N.D.I Alliance and 43-48 for others.
Another survey by Republic TV-PMARQ in its results stated that the NDA was winning on 359 seats, the I.N.D.I.A bloc on 154 seats, with others on 30 seats.
None of the exit polls have, however, predicted the NDA crossing 400 seats, which was the slogan of the NDA parties.
The dissemination of exit poll results is strictly regulated by the Election Commission of India (ECI). According to Section 126A of the Representation of the People Act, 1951, exit polls cannot be conducted or published while voting is ongoing to prevent influencing voters. This embargo ensures that exit poll data can only be released after all polling has concluded.