As the year of elections passes midway, several significant developments have surfaced. Over 60 democracies would have held elections by the end of 2024, marking this one of the busiest years for democracy in recent times.
So far over a billion people have voted already in the ongoing festival of democracy, with another billion expected to vote in the next six months. Democracies will perform within a range. The various global rankings of democratic countries are not relevant since many neglect to factor in the diversity of societies that have embraced elections as the path to forming a government.
Among the prominent democracies that have recently held elections are India and South Africa. Despite their efforts, many global experts and ranking have termed India and South Africa as flawed democracies, pointing to perceived “democratic backsliding” in these countries. These critics have not only questioned the choices made by voters but have also cast doubt on the integrity of the election processes in these nations.
For many global analysts, democracies in the Global South have been easy targets for maligning. Often the election results in these countries do not suit the interests of legacy economies. As a result, the experts find ways of questioning the legitimacy of elections in India and South Africa. This has also happened in some South American countries.
There has been a peaceful transition of power in South Africa for more than three decades, while in India for more than 75 years.
Before examining the results and the impact of the elections in these two countries, it is important to assess the situation in the Global North. In the US, there is continuing confusion about the presumptive presidential candidates for the elections due in November this year. The incumbent President Joe Biden seems to be being abandoned by his own party, while the challenger, former President Donald Trump, is entangled in legal battles and has survived an assassination attempt. Many observers believe that the cases against President Trump are intended to undermine his candidacy for the upcoming elections.
In Europe, the situation is messier. The elections for the EU Parliament have led to widespread protests across many European cities. For a region that has championed the cause of democracy, it is more than ironic that some people are protesting the outcome of legitimate elections. In France, there is a deep political division which led to snap elections being called by President Emmanuel Macron. The final result has created confusing partnerships in the French parliament. Similarly, the recent UK elections, held ahead of time, have created new political alignments. The success of the Labour Party in the UK was partly because the right-wing Reform Party undercut the Conservative Party’s votes. Elections, by their nature, can be chaotic, messy and often difficult to predict.
In the backdrop of this, the criticism of the elections in South Africa and India seems disingenuous.
In the midst of political turbulence, South African voters have made their choice. And the elected representatives have come together to form the Government of Unity which includes various parties who are often opposed to each other. This is no different for the many coalition governments in Western Europe. There are countries where bitter rivals have been forced to form a government together.
A similar situation is likely in France where President Macron will have to lead a Parliament dominated by his opposers.
The election results in South Africa and India should be celebrated, not denigrated. Both countries now have a coalition government that promise political stability. As the key partners in the BRICS grouping, both can boast of a strong democratic tradition.
Various studies indicate that democracy and economic growth do grow in tandem. An MIT study says that when it comes to growth, democracy significantly increases development. The study by MIT professors argues that countries switching to democratic rule experience a 20% increase in GDP over 25 years, compared to what would have happened had they remained authoritarian states.
For growth and development, these elections have delivered the right results. Economic continuity with a stronger emphasis on reforms is likely. Trade and investment policies will not be reversed. Their economic engagement with the world will accelerate. Foreign and domestic investors will find solace in predictable policies with stronger push for key reforms.
For India and South Africa, the economic path is clear. There is much to be done to improve the quality of life and national development. The question now is whether the democratic leaders are delivering on their promises. Several initiatives by the new the South African government hold promise, indicating a positive direction for the future.
President Cyril Ramaphosa has promised reforms to push forward South Africa’s economic growth. “Working with financial institutions, development agencies, business and professional associations, we revitalised investment in infrastructure. The value of projects currently in construction is over R230 billion, including energy, water infrastructure and rural roads projects,” President Ramaphosa has said. “Together, we mobilised more than R1.5 trillion in new investment commitments. This has led to the opening of new factories, mines, data centres and production lines.” He also said that master plans have been finalised in eight industries, including clothing, poultry, sugar, automotive, furniture, steel, tourism and forestry. These objectives remain the focus on the new government and will be considered the continuing agenda of President Ramaphosa.
At the continental level, the focus on creating a common market, African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) and investing in infrastructure can yield tremendous benefits. Being a leading economy of the African continent, there is much that South Africa can do to add momentum to growth. While it has been struggling with its GDP numbers, the new Unity Government has an opportunity to undertake strong economic reforms with a bipartisan political consensus. Democracies may be messy but deliver better than autocracies. The best answer to critics of democracy is strong economic and development performance.
Pranjal Sharma is a geo-economic analyst and author of “The Next New”.