Biden certainly will not take any stand which would prove antithetical to the growing bonhomie in India-US ties.
The recent virtual summit between Prime Minister Narendra Modi and President Joe Biden just before the beginning of the 2+2 Dialogue reflected a mutual respect for each other’s perceptions on varying issues impacting global peace and stability. It was also a symbolic assertion and a great message to the rest of the world that India-US convergence on pertinent strategic areas would be in global interest, whether it was to do with combating Covid-19 or addressing climate change. India and the United States have come a long way in building mutual ties based on shared values and interests. There have also been a continuity in bilateral consultation and dialogue which in turn has created a greater degree of confidence. There seems to be a remarkable improvement in respecting each other’s views on the complex areas of international relations. One can obviously see more substance and less rhetoric in all these exchanges.
There is a growing acknowledgement by the United States that both India and the US together can resolve global problems. It shows that India has now reached a stage where it can assume the responsibilities to lead the world affairs. By and large, both India and the US share the same global concerns. Both leaders did acknowledge that the situation in Ukraine is very worrying and that this can be resolved through dialogue between the Presidents of Russia and Ukraine. The ongoing war between Russia and Ukraine featured prominently in the opening remarks of both President Biden and Prime Minister Modi. Despite India’s unwillingness to call out Russia by name for its attack on Ukraine, the US showed a genuine respect to India’s strategic autonomy in the decision making process. How to manage the destabilizing effects of Russian war became the central part of the discussion. Both India and the US sailed smoothly during the virtual summit. There was neither any concrete demand made by the US especially in the context of its expectations from India nor India make any concrete commitments during the detailed and candid exchange of views.
It is now becoming obvious that India and the US will become the new poles of the post pandemic global order. It must be emphasised here that China’s desire of becoming unipolar in Asia in a multipolar world will be too difficult to realize in the changing dynamics of geopolitics. China’s growing assertion that it will attain supremacy and primacy in the international system is getting reflected in its behavioural patterns. India’s rise has become a dominant factor in checkmating China’s strategic aspirations. The US has been realising the new phenomenon of “India’s rise”.
The US understood India’s predicament and deteriorating regional security environment. The recent developments in Sri Lanka and Pakistan also featured prominently during the virtual summit. Pakistan is increasingly becoming a part of the regional and global problem. The economic crisis is Sri Lanka again is being perceived as a case of neglect in understanding the geopolitical and geoeconomic dimension by the increasing influence of China and its debt trap diplomacy.
Over the years, a strong foundation has been built in Indo-US relations with multifaceted dimensions such as political, economic, strategic, nuclear and diplomatic. Indo-US strategic engagement has come a long way and is predicated on the changing dynamics of geopolitics where it seems China’s rise features prominently in the current dynamics. The emerging China-Russia strategic equation also remains a factor in understanding different permutations and combinations.
Biden certainly will not take any stand which would prove antithetical to the growing bonhomie in Indo-US ties. India and the US have converged on a number of issues impacting global peace and stability. India is being perceived as a responsible and potential greater power in the making. The bilateral strategic engagement has witnessed a greater emphasis in this emerging world order.
India has found its own strategic space in dealing with the issue of US sanctions on Russia. The US has been constantly discouraging India from increasing its purchases of Russian energy resources. Whether the impact of the US sanctions on Russia will see changes in India’s decision making process always features prominently in discussions among the members of the academic and strategic communities. Technically, speaking, it has no direct relevance whatsoever. India currently imports only a small 1-2% of its energy from Russia as per available official estimates. India does not need to diversify its energy imports.
India’s humanitarian assistance to Ukraine is being perceived as a very positive step by the US. President Biden hailed India’s approach during the virtual summit. During the 2+2 dialogue, it has been indicated that the US will obviously be continuing with its supply of conventional weaponry to India. The US might become integral to India’s “Make in India” campaign. India would very much like to transition itself from a net importer of conventional weaponry to a net exporter of these weapons. The Inter Agency Task Force, which has been a part of the Defence Technology and Trade Initiative (DTTI), has been seriously engaging in identifying the parameters for such defence cooperation. Defence co-production involving critical technology will remain a challenge, but the commitment shown on the part of the US towards India is something worth mentioning.
It would be in US interest if the Biden Administration has continuity in their foreign policy orientations towards India. Indo-US counter terrorism cooperation has provided good dividends to both sides by realizing the containment of threats emanating from terrorism. The military to military exercises has experienced a very positive phase in the maritime domain. India’s role in the Indo-Pacific security architecture is going to be vital along with the United States’. The role of the Indian diaspora in Biden’s Administration will become dominant in key policies domain. This was the reason both Prime Minister Modi and President Biden lauded the connection between Indians and Americans.
India and the US together will remain important partners in the evolving world system in general and in South Asian region in particular. There has been a discernible broad arc of positive continuity as far as India-US defence cooperation is concerned. India has been named a major defence partner of the US and convergences on the global and regional security environment has given rise to growing cooperation in capability enhancement and capacity building. The renaming of the US Pacific Command as the Indo-Pacific Command reflected a growing recognition of India’s role as a net security provider in the Indian Ocean Region. This has brought a sharper focus on the maritime cooperation between India and the United States, seen in both greater defence sales and purchase as well as augmented maritime information sharing to increase India’s maritime domain awareness.
As the military-to-military engagement across the all the services and the sophistication of their exercises increase through implementation of the foundation agreements, it might be incumbent upon both countries to create greater synergy in traditional as well as non-traditional areas of operations. How different military commands of the US operating across the globe can engage further with the Indian military across different domains will remain a matter of priority in the times to come. The inclusion of the Australian Navy in the latest Malabar Exercise has added a new dimension to the trilateral arrangement between India, the US and Japan, and given new heft to the Quadrilateral Security Initiative (Quad).
India and the United States will be confronting more strategic risks if they do not converge and become proactive in assuming the leadership role in the emerging global order.
Dr Arvind Kumar is Professor of United States Studies and is also the Chairman of the Centre for Canadian, United States and Latin American Studies at the School of International Studies, Jawaharlal Nehru University (JNU), New Delhi.