In 2012, Mukherjee had thrown his hat in the ring even before his party, the Congress had made up its mind. Initially, party chief Sonia Gandhi was in favour of elevating Vice President Hamid Ansari to the primary constitutional position, but settled for Mukherjee after realising that it was the sole political option available to her once he had declared that he would be seeking election for the august office. Consequently, Ansari became the second Vice President to be the recipient of a second term, the first being Dr S. Radhakrishnan. No President after Dr Rajendra Prasad has ever held office for two terms either and if Mukherjee was to be chosen as a consensus nominee, he would be creating a history of sorts.
The BJP is desirous that it should be able to get its candidate elected to the highest office of the nation. However, to do so, it would require the numbers that can swing the game in favour of the saffron brigade, provided the party was to be victorious in the Assembly elections in the country’s most populous state—Uttar Pradesh, besides, Goa and Uttarakhand. Punjab, at the moment, is visibly slipping out of its grasp, with the ruling coalition facing a massive anti incumbency factor after a ten-year rule.
The President is elected by an electoral college comprising members of both Houses of Parliament, members of the State Legislative Assemblies, as well as members of the Assemblies of two Union Territories—Delhi and Pondicherry. The election takes place by the system of proportional representation by the single transferrable vote as provided in Article 55(3) of the Constitution. The term of the President is for five years.
Mukherjee’s chances of being made a consensus candidate would depend upon the electoral arithmetic, post the outcome of the five Assembly polls in March. If the numbers stack up against the ruling dispensation, it would be glad to avoid an unnecessary confrontation with its adversaries for the prestigious election. Instead, it would settle down and get its nominee elected as the Vice President, since for this position, the Electoral College requires a simple majority amongst members in both Houses of Parliament collectively.
Sources stated that several names have been doing the rounds, though the issue remains in the realm of speculation. A large section of the Sangh Parivar is in favour of veteran BJP leader Murali Manohar Joshi being elected as the President in view of his vast experience, immense knowledge, political acumen, wide acceptability and unquestioned seniority. Joshi, who was sidelined along with party’s patriarch L.K. Advani, Shanta Kumar and Yashwant Sinha, is a member of the Marg Darshak Mandal. He was first elected to the Lok Sabha in 1977, much earlier than most members of the Lower House. At one stage, Joshi was also seen as Prime Ministerial material, before the party decided to back Narendra Modi in 2013.
L.K. Advani is considered to be the man who is regarded as the architect of the BJP and played the most pivotal role in its expansion, particularly during his famous Somnath to Ayodhya Rath Yatra in the early 1990s. He could easily have been the Prime Minister had he not proposed Atal Behari Vajpayee’s name in the Mumbai BJP plenary session in 1995. Advani controlled the party and in the process clashed with the RSS leaders on several occasions. However, the majority of leaders whom he groomed seem to have deserted him and are conspicuously reluctant to be seen in his company. Thus his being an automatic choice for the position is in doubt, though despite his advancing years, he is by God’s grace in good health.
Dr Karan Singh has been regarded by many as the best President India never had, keeping in view his scholarly disposition and unmatched grasp of the country’s culture and ethos. Strangely, he was never considered by his own party for the post and, therefore, there is remote possibility that the BJP would settle for his name, unless the RSS takes a decision to project the erstwhile Hindu Maharaja of a predominantly Muslim state of Jammu and Kashmir as the best bet internationally. Singh was a founder of the Virat Hindu Samaj, a precursor to the Vishwa Hindu Parishad, and fell out with the Sangh Parivar when he declined to toe their line on contentious issues.
M. Venkaiah Naidu is thought to be the least controversial in the present Council of Ministers. He is BJP’s past president and enjoys cordial relations with all allies in general and the southern parties such as AIADMK, Telugu Desam and Telangana Rashtriya Samithi in particular, besides the Biju Janata Dal and the Trinamool Congress. Naidu is a beneficiary of the Prime Minister’s confidence and could therefore strongly emerge as a possible contender for the Presidentship.
C. Vidyasagar Rao, the present Maharashtra Governor may be considered a lightweight by many of his colleagues, yet shares a tremendous rapport with the Prime Minister ever since he was Minister of State for Home Affairs in the Atal Behari Vajpayee government. His nomination would be subject to the BJP scoring emphatic wins in the Assembly elections, a probability which is being dismissed by the party’s critics. Najma Hepatullah, currently a Governor, is also a hopeful. According to knowledgeable functionaries in the party, Lok Sabha Speaker Sumitra Mahajan and Textiles Minister Smriti Irani could also be in the running. In addition, several lightweights too may feature in the long list of potential nominees if the BJP was to be in a comfortable position to get its candidate elected.
It is virtually certain that Modi would play the crucial role in determining the contender. Given his political astuteness and impeccable reading of the ground situation, he could even throw up a few surprises. The Prime Minister is aware on how Pramod Mahajan had staged a coup by introducing Dr A.P.J. Abdul Kalam’s name at the eleventh hour, when it was clear to everyone that an agreement on the then Vice President, Krishan Kant’s name had been finalised between Vajpayee’s principal secretary Brajesh Mishra and K. Natwar Singh, who had been entrusted with the task of negotiating a deal by Sonia Gandhi.
Even as speculation persists, BJP leaders, some at the instance of the top leadership, are exploring possibilities of enlarging the support base of the National Democratic Alliance. Sources said that the NCP supremo Sharad Pawar was sounded out, but declined citing his deteriorating health. If sources are to be believed, a party emissary acting at the behest of the BJP’s Central leadership, offered Deputy Prime Ministership and a key portfolio to Bihar Chief Minister Nitish Kumar, provided he agreed to terminate his alliance with the RJD and the Congress. Instead, he was conveyed that he should form the state government along with the BJP. Officially, the JD(U) and the BJP top brass have denied the development, but sources insist that nothing could be ruled out at present.
The BJP leadership is working towards getting the numbers in favour of the alliance in the Rajya Sabha. This could take place only if regional parties and their leaders were to come on board. The entire exercise is aimed at securing outright victory in the elections of the President and the Vice President, other than pushing important legislation in Parliament to strengthen the hands of the Prime Minister.