Modi and Shah know this: Even if annihilated 92:8, Congress is the only other horse in the race for national power.
NEW DELHI: People review success and failures at the year-end, but I always think about the new challenges and work for the coming year. With this principle, one can discuss political prospects and activities in the year 2023, which will impact future developments in 2024 and decide the future of India. Certainly, 2023 will be very crucial for major political parties and society. Not only Assembly elections of Western and Southern states, but international diplomacy and G-20 Group activities and decisions will also affect the Lok Sabha election in 2024.
The construction of the Ram Temple was in the manifesto of the BJP and the poll promise is now well on its way to being fulfilled. PM Modi laid the foundation stone of the new Ram Temple in August 2020 and as per the latest information available, it will be ready by 2023. It is set to be inaugurated on 24 January 2024, just a few months before the next elections. BJP is proud that Ram Lalla will be reinstated in the garbha griha fulfilling the emotions of crores of Hindus.
“Mere good governance is not enough; it has to be pro-people and pro-active. Good governance is putting people at the centre of the development process.”–PM Narendra Modi openly accepts and conveys to his party. India is one of the fastest growing economies of the world and with PM Narendra Modi’s idea of ‘Sabka Saath, Sabka Vikas, Sabka Vishwas, Sabka Prayas,’ has been widening its positive influence in world affairs. A leader, a visionary, and a statesman, the Narendra Modi-led BJP government completed 8 years in office and these eight years of his active leadership have turned out to be a guiding light in moulding different domains of Indian society.
PM’s leadership and his service over these eight years have played a vital role in promoting the welfare of the poor people, empowering women, aiding the farmers through agri-friendly schemes, creating job opportunities for the youth, upskilling people and thereby ameliorating the Indian economy at large. These reforms have moved way beyond the statistics and the positive impact of them could be seen on the smiling faces of people. There are some reasons why Modi’s popularity rating is on the rise. The common Indian believes that Modi is a staunch patriot and the nation is safe in his hands. Before Modi became PM, there was a perception among common people that leaders at the top were not honest and there is widespread corruption in politics. After Modi ruled for eight years, the man on the street has regained the trust that he had lost earlier. People realized that there can be corruption-free governance and the leaders can be honest. The man on the street does not have an iota of doubt about Modi’s honesty. The Hindu society in India now believes that the government at the Centre is no more following the policy of appeasement under Modi’s rule. Leaders of opposition parties have also started visiting temples, offering prayers, showing off their ‘janeu’ (sacred thread) and projecting themselves as a “good Hindus”. Modi has a strong team with him that keeps a “third eye” on political opponents. This team consistently tries to put the opposition in place. Compared to other parties, the leaders and workers in BJP repose their full trust in a single leader, there is no second power centre in BJP, nor is there any parallel leadership in government. The leaders and workers in BJP feel that only Modi can win the elections for the party and run the government. From Swachh Bharat Mission, Jan Dhan Yojana, Ujjwala Yojana to Ayushman Bharat Pradhan Mantri Jan Arogya Yojana, and Startup India, to name a few, his historical decisions and policymaking ideas have weaved India into a newer outlook in front of the world—a strong developing nation. He has brought newer concepts to the limelight along with the notable schemes which have seeped into the deeper levels of the Indian societal structure—financial, healthcare, and social security.
On the other side, Prime Minister Narendra Modi will be challenged by strong provincial leaders. The opposition will focus on economic issues, including soaring joblessness. To counter them door-to-door visits and emotional connection with voters will remain the high point of the ruling BJP’s campaign ahead of nine Assembly elections in 2023 and the General Election in 2024. With a little over three months to go before the announcement of the next Union Budget, finance minister Nirmala Sitharaman has laid out some priorities and spelt out some limitations. The Budget for 2023-24 is likely to be tabled on 1 February; it will be the last full Budget for Modi 2.0 government before the Lok Sabha elections to be held in April-May of 2024.
A string of state elections is due in 2023, before the grand finale –the general elections in 2024–in which the BJP will seek a third straight term in power at the Centre. The other crucial agenda appears a “Sneh Milan campaign”, which the BJP is planning. The campaign is meant to “culturally connect”.
In earlier elections even if beaten 92:8, Congress was the party closest to the BJP in that race. While the BJP under Modi and Amit Shah collected about 38% of the vote (all figures rounded off), the Congress was at 20. About half, so what’s the big deal? Because no other party in the country crossed double figures. Further, if you add up the vote percentage of all non-Congress opposition parties—including UPA allies DMK, NCP, and RJD—with more than one per cent of vote-share, they don’t reach 20, which was the Congress tally. Between its 2014 and 2019 debacles, Congress retained its 20% vote share. In comparison, almost every other anti-BJP party lost some loyal voters.
Here’s a proposition. Even if annihilated 92:8, Congress is the only other horse in the race for national power, never mind how distant. Watch Narendra Modi and Amit Shah. They know better than to take Congress lightly. That’s why even in states where the Congress doesn’t matter (West Bengal) or where the BJP doesn’t (Kerala, Tamil Nadu), they attack the Congress and the Gandhi dynasty. That’s why the relentless campaign for the “Pappufication” of Rahul Gandhi; on Sonia Gandhi’s origin; hunt for defectors from its ranks; and particular expression of friendliness, even tears, for those who might be seen to be sulking in the Congress.
Modi and Shah know three things: The Congress is the only likely challenger to them nationally. The Congress’ vote share does not have to go higher than the BJP’s. If it only goes from 20 per cent to anything above 25 per cent, national politics will alter. There will still be a BJP-NDA government, but it will be more of a coalition. Modi-Shah will face challenges. Nor will constitutional institutions be so supine then. That the Gandhi family is the key to this. Only they can keep Congress together. So, they need to be targeted ruthlessly. Congress find solace in its victory in Himachal Pradesh, but is still far from posing a serious threat to BJP IN 2024. Rahul Gandhi tried to change his image through his Bharat Jodo Yatra, but the Congress organization is still not strong enough to get a historical victory in the Lok Sabha election.
The writer is the Editorial Director of ITV Network-India News & Daily Aaj Samaj.