The crucial phase will be when the parties have to decide on seat sharing for the elections
The much important meeting of 15 Opposition parties took place in Patna. The proceedings suggest that the Congress party’s acceptance among the other parties may have grown. However, with several Opposition parties not lending support to the meet and with some regional parties not willing to let Congress venture into their turf, questions are being raised already about the direction this unity is headed.
BJP leaders suggest that these meetings are the easiest way to showcase some sort of a unity, but the crucial phase will be when the parties have to decide on seat sharing for the elections. Moreover, to get a clear-cut victory in the Lok Sabha, the Opposition needs to wrest more than 70 seats from the BJP, which may not be easy, especially since BJD and YSRCP are not showing any signs of being a part of the Opposition camp. Samik Bhattacharya, national spokesperson for the BJP said, whenever elections come, there is commotion among all Opposition parties. But except for defeating the BJP, what is the goal, or the common minimum program of these parties that are anyway fighting amongst themselves?
The trouble spot for the Opposition is Uttar Pradesh with its 80 Lok Sabha seats. The BJP is a major player there and any tussle on seat sharing within the Opposition could derail most of their efforts. Most importantly, will the BSP join hands with the Samajwadi Party and the Congress to fight the BJP? Unlikely, if one has to go by the way BSP supremo Mayawati is criticising the Opposition unity. In fact, even Jayant Chaudhry of the RLD went missing from the Opposition meet in Patna.
From the attendance in Patna, analysts say that the Congress, Nitish Kumar and Sharad Pawar were already in close talks regarding the creation of a front against the BJP, where it was decided that Kumar would step up to reach out and unite the heads of all Opposition parties. However, the perception of unity may not be easy to come by if AAP’s reaction is taken into account. Sources suggest that when AAP had started bickering on the ordinance issue in the meeting (by saying that Congress should first publicly declare support for AAP), most of the party heads had supported Mallikarjun Kharge, who had highlighted AAP’s statements vilifying the Congress. A source said, “It was an Opposition meet for a much bigger cause. Arvind Kejriwal was told that this was not the platform for his ordinance issue. This could have infuriated him, making him decide he was not to be a part of the joint press conference.”
According to political analysts, Congress thinks it is now growing because of the Bharat Jodo Yatra and the Karnataka win. The Congress believes that it will win Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh as well. “Congress is using Nitish Kumar and Sharad Pawar as a tool to unite the Opposition for Congress before 2024,” said an analyst.
The analyst added, “I think the Congress may not take the lead until the party wins at least two states out of the four that will go for elections this year. Moreover, AAP will have difficulty in allying with Congress. Kejriwal is a long time planner, he is not looking for a state or two. He is looking for the 2029 general elections. He knows if Congress is dying it should die properly. The AAP is surviving because the Congress is dying as all the voters of the Congress are going to AAP.”
When asked about the Opposition unity meeting going without a convenor, Pranav Jha, who is attached to the office of Congress president Malikarjun Kharge, said to The Sunday Guardian, “At the moment nobody felt the need to discuss it. In future also there may or may not be a discussion. It’s not a battle of one-upmanship, as the BJP would want it to be. It’s a platform where all like-minded parties have come forward to defeat BJP’s decisive and sectarian agenda. It’s a coming together of forces who are committed to take up people’s issues of inflation, unemployment, income inequality and subversion of people’s democratic rights.” He added that the fact that the Opposition parties had come together proved that the meeting was a success.