Caste calculus, especially the votes of Dalits and minorities, and the votes of women, are crucial in making a party win.
The 2024 Lok Sabha battle in Tamil Nadu seems to be developing into a three-way fight among the ruling DMK, the AIADMK and the BJP. While the DMK and its alliance are seen to be on a winning path, the AIADMK and the BJP are making sure that the Lok Sabha elections are not won without a tough fight. April 19 is the day when Tamil Nadu goes to the polls, and campaigning has been proceeding at a brisk pace by the Dravidian parties and the national party.
Tamil Nadu has made strong strides in terms of development, like education, healthcare, infrastructure facilities and socio-political mobility among various sections of society. However, caste calculus, especially the votes of Dalits and minorities, and the votes of women, are crucial in making a party win. How will the DMK, the AIADMK and the BJP, which is trying to strengthen its presence, fare this time?
AIADMK TRIES TO FORGE A NEW PATH, SANS BJP
In Tamil Nadu’s political landscape, the All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (AIADMK) has long been a prominent force. As the Lok Sabha elections approach, the party finds itself at a critical juncture, poised to make significant strides or face formidable challenges. The party has undergone restructuring and realignment, with Edappadi K Palaniswami (EPS) emerging as the party General Secretary, breaking off the alliance with the BJP and leading the party into a new era.
The AIADMK’s performance in the 2019 Lok Sabha elections was marked by a setback as it secured only one seat out of Tamil Nadu’s 39. However, the political dynamics have since evolved, with the demise of former Chief Minister J. Jayalalithaa and the subsequent internal power struggles.
One of the crucial factors that will influence the AIADMK’s prospects in the upcoming elections are its candidates and its alliance formations. In a surprising move, many of the candidates being fielded this time by the AIADMK in its 32 seats are newcomers, which EPS believes is a good move for the party. As for the alliance partners, the AIADMK has partnered with Desiya Murpokku Dravida Kazhagam (DMDK), Social Democratic Party of India (SDPI) and Puthiya Tamizhagam (PT). The DMDK, led by Premalatha Vijayakanth, and riding the wave of sympathy following Captain Vijayakanth’s demise, will contest in five Lok Sabha constituencies—Tiruvallur (SC reserved seat), Central Chennai, Cuddalore, Thanjavur and Virudhunagar. PT and SDPI were allocated one seat each—Tenkasi and Dindigul constituencies.
Another factor that could impact the AIADMK’s performance is its ability to resonate with voters on key issues. In its 54-page Lok Sabha election manifesto, the party focused extensively on the states’ rights, including the need for state governments to get better funding from the Centre, and schemes like Rs 3,000 for women heads of “poor households”, and due recognition to official languages in the country. It also stated that it would urge the Centre to appoint the Governor after consulting the state government; make Tamil an official language at the Madras High Court; bring an alternative to NEET; and try to establish a bench of the Supreme Court in Chennai. Introducing dual citizenship for ethnic Tamils from Sri Lanka; abolishing of toll charges at all National Highways; retrieval of Katchatheevu; and ensuring that the Mekedatu dam project is not implemented by the Karnataka government, are also part of the manifesto.
The fact that the AIADMK had been in an alliance with the BJP till late 2023 has made other political parties and voters suspicious of their motives and raising the question if they would go back to forming an alliance with the saffron party. One of the issues that the DMK and other parties in Tamil Nadu are attacking it for is the fact that the AIADMK MPs had supported the Citizenship Amendment Acct (CAA) when it was passed in Parliament and now the party has done a 180-degree turn and is opposing the CAA. The AIADMK is also being criticized for supporting the three farm laws and being an accomplice in issues that “harmed” Tamil Nadu. So, the question is: will voters trust the AIADMK now?
The AIADMK is at a crossroads as it prepares for the 2024 Lok Sabha elections. The party faces challenges stemming from internal dynamics and evolving political equations, but convincing the voter that the party will stand by them and give them the best governance is a challenge. One of its major strengths is that it has been a long-standing party in Tamil Nadu, with political stalwarts like M.G. Ramachandran and J. Jayalalithaa at the helm, and their legacy continues to resonate with many people, especially in the rural areas. How EPS is able to translate this into votes in the upcoming electoral battle will determine the AIADMK’s course towards the 2026 Assembly elections.
DMK LEGACY TO CONTINUE?
In the 2019 Lok Sabha elections, the Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (DMK) led by M.K. Stalin secured an impressive victory, winning 23 out of the 38 seats it contested in Tamil Nadu and Puducherry. With its alliance, it won a total of 38 of the 39 seats in 2019. This electoral success was further consolidated in the subsequent Assembly elections, where the DMK-led alliance secured a convincing mandate, forming the government in Tamil Nadu. The momentum gained from these victories positions the DMK, and its alliance, as a frontrunner in the elections.
By forging alliances with like-minded parties, including the Congress, Kamal Haasan’s Makkal Needhi Maiam (MNM), Vaiko’s Marumalarchi Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (MDMK), Social Democratic Party of India (SDPI) and regional outfits, the DMK has created a broad-based coalition that appeals to diverse segments of the electorate. This coalition-building approach enhances the DMK’s electoral arithmetic.
Given the momentum the DMK has in Tamil Nadu, the only party it considers as competition at this point is the AIADMK. While the AIADMK has been hitting out at the DMK for not getting Tamil Nadu exempted from NEET despite its poll promise, Stalin has been slamming the AIADMK over numerous issues like CAA and farm laws. During his campaign recently, Stalin said, “Palaniswami claims he is against the BJP but doesn’t criticise it. For the sake of remaining in power, he made our students write the NEET, supported the three farm laws, and even claimed that he was prepared to debate on farmers’ problems. He wore a green shawl and deceived the farmers.”
As for its manifesto, the DMK promised that NEET, NEP, CAA and Uniform Civil Code (UCC) will not be implemented; LPG will be sold for Rs 500; 33% reservation for women in parliament and assembly; Indian citizenship to Sri Lankan Tamils; Rs 1000 monthly money for women; and others. Stalin also slammed the BJP for not giving Tamil Nadu its due in tax devolution, flood relief and infrastructure funding.
However, the DMK has been plagued by corruption allegations and numerous cases have been filed against some ministers by the Income-Tax Department and the Enforcement Directorate. While former minister V. Senthil Balaji is currently in jail and fighting a money laundering and job scam case, K. Ponmudy’s three-year prison sentence in a disproportionate assets case was recently overturned by the Supreme Court. The biggest damage was perhaps done to M.K. Stalin and his family in 2023 when BJP leader K. Annamalai released the “DMK files”. One tape released allegedly features Finance Minister Palanivel Thiaga Rajan speaking about Stalin’s son, Udhayanidhi, and son-in-law, V. Sabareesan, illegally amassing Rs 30,000 crore in a year. Despite all this, the DMK and Congress say they are confident that their alliance will sweep the Lok Sabha elections by winning all 39 seats this time around in Tamil Nadu and Puducherry.
ANNAMALAI AND BJP
While there is no doubt that TN BJP state president K. Annamalai and his En Mann, En Makkal yatra over the last year has made the saffron party rise in popularity, whether this will translate into votes is a big question. The BJP faces several challenges in Tamil Nadu. Firstly, the state has a strong Dravidian identity, which has traditionally been at odds with the BJP’s ideology. The Dravidian parties (AIADMK and DMK) have a deep-rooted support base among the masses. Secondly, the BJP’s Hindutva agenda has faced resistance in Tamil Nadu, where “secularism” and social justice have been the central themes of Dravidian politics. BJP has found some alliance partners like T.T.V. Dhinakaran (who moved out of the AIADMK and formed AMMK), former AIADMK leader O. Panneerselvam, G.K. Vasan’s Tamil Maanila Congress (Moopanar), Dr Ramadoss’ Pattali Makkal Katchi (PMK) and Sarthkumar’s All India Samathuva Makkal Katchi. In a way, these alliances will help BJP navigate the strong caste lines that are crucial to politics and garnering votes in the state.
With Annamalai emerging as a strong leader for the BJP and standing for the parliamentary elections in Coimbatore this time, the saffron party seems to have connected at some level with some of the voters across the state. The national party is expected to put up a spirited fight in these elections. Its alliance-building efforts and aggressive campaigning are likely to yield some dividends. Moreover, the BJP’s strong performance at the national level and its narrative of development and national security may find resonance among certain sections of the electorate.
With Prime Minister Narendra Modi making numerous trips to the southern state, the BJP seems to be greatly focused on Tamil Nadu. Annamalai is confident that the BJP’s vote percentage will be around 25% this time in the state. The BJP leader said, “It is very clear there is a huge wave for PM Narendra Modi in Tamil Nadu. We are extremely confident that on April 19, the people of Coimbatore, the people of Tamil Nadu will overwhelmingly vote for PM Narendra Modi. June 4 will herald a new era where Narendra Modi and all the candidates working for him will win. BJP will get 60% votes in Coimbatore.” Regardless of the results, the BJP’s efforts to expand its presence in Tamil Nadu signify the evolving dynamics of state politics.
NEW FACES IN THE 2024 ELECTIONS
Though there are many seasoned politicians contesting this election, there are numerous new and younger faces that are being launched by various parties. There are 950 (874 men and 76 women) candidates standing in the 39 parliamentary constituencies and some interesting new faces too. For instance, sandalwood smuggler Veerappan’s daughter, Vidhya Rani, is contesting in Krishnagiri for Seeman’s Naam Tamizhar Katchi (NTK), while Marumalarchi Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (MDMK) founder Vaiko’s son, Durai Vaiko, is standing in Trichy for the first time.
BJP’s allies PMK and All India Samathuva Makkal Katchi are launching some new faces. PMK’s Anbumani Ramadoss’ wife, Sowmya, is making her debut in politics this time round and will contest in Dharmapuri. Meanwhile, Tamil actor Radhikaa Sarathkumar, who is part of husband’s All India Samathuva Makkal Katchi, is standing in Virudhunagar. And DMDK’s Captain Vijayakanth’s son, V. Vijaya Prabhakar, is also making his debut in politics in Virudhunagar.