An angry Israeli invasion of Gaza could eliminate Hamas and its war making potential, but could also spark a wider war that will be impossible to contain.
A LOOMING INVASION
It has been three weeks since the horrific 10/7 attacks on Israel, and already the Middle East has become a different place. The toll of the attacks is still unfolding with over 1,400 Israelis killed, 5,000 injured and 222 taken hostage. But in the retribution that followed, Gaza has been placed under siege and pummeled to the ground with over 7,000 dead, and over a million displaced from their homes. The toll is already three times that of the Gaza War of 2014; and the ground invasion has not even begun.
Israel has called up over 360,000 reservists and has mobilized half a million men and over 2,000 tanks as it prepares for the ground invasion of Gaza to decimate Hamas. But the much-vaunted invasion will be more difficult than imagined. The 41-kilometer-long Gaza Strip is defended by an estimated 30,000 Hamas fighters of the Al-Qassam Brigade—each one indifferentiable from a civilian. But it also has over 500,000 angry young men of fighting age, who can provide an endless pool of fresh recruits. And beneath one of the world’s most densely populated areas, runs the “Gaza Metro”—a 500-kilometer network of tunnels that Hamas has created 70 meters below ground to enable their fighters to move under protection from one place to another. It will not be easy clearing this dense built-up area. To draw a parallel, the Battle of Stalingrad was fought over six months for the 40-kilometer-long city on the Volga River and cost the Wehrmacht a quarter of a million casualties. The carnage would not be on such a scale, but the battle would be fought in intense media glare that covers each bomb and casualty. The collateral damage caused to 2.3 million Palestinians under siege there will only serve to paint Israel as the aggressor, and add to the pressure to terminate operations before it achieves its goals.
Israel is bracing for a long war, but perhaps they should give greater thought to what they hope to achieve by an invasion. What will be the end state they hope to achieve? They can destroy Hamas and its war fighting potential—for now. But it will merely arise in another form. Will they occupy Gaza once again and take over the responsibility for that restive enclave? That will not be feasible. An invasion of Gaza will not achieve the aim of making Israel more secure, and if anything, could isolate it even further.
FEARS OF A
MULTI-FRONT WAR
The divide has already begun. The Israel-Saudi rapprochement is in tatters and the Abraham Accords are showing signs of fraying. Other Arab nations are slowly entering the fray, if only diplomatically. And to compound issues, the Hezbollah have upped their activities along the Lebanese-Israel border. There have been greater incidents of cross border firing there since the 2006 Israeli invasion of Lebanon, forcing the evacuation of border settlements. Hezbollah, like Hamas, is a proxy of Iran and will open the Northern front should Israel attack Gaza. And the West Bank too is set to erupt. Fatah is increasing its calls for armed resistance in support of their Palestinian brethren in Gaza, and in the unrest that has broken out over a hundred deaths have already been recorded. An Israeli fighter launched a missile attack on a mosque compound claiming it was being used to launch attacks, further escalating tensions. The West Bank too is a ticking time bomb and the fuse is getting shorter.
Even as the actions of Hamas, Hezbollah and the West bank raise the spectre of a three-front war, there are also fears of the neighbours entering the fray. Israeli jets attacked the Syrian international airports at Damascus and Aleppo, in retaliation for attacks from Syria into the Golan Heights. The greater aim seemed to be to prevent shipments of arms and weaponry reaching Syria from Iran. Iran-sponsored Houthi rebels also fired drones and missiles from Yemen into Israel. It now seems that Iran has formed an “Axis of Resistance” with Houthis from Yemen in the south, Hezbollah from Lebanon in the north, and Syrian and Iraqi militia in the east that are preparing to strike Israel should it launch its invasion of Gaza. That will engulf the entire region in a wider war. To show how fragile the situation is, an Israeli tank even fired upon an Egyptian position by mistake. Any small act by any of the parties, could just go out of control and trigger off a wider war.
The US has stood staunchly by Israel and sent two aircraft carriers—USS Gerald Ford and USS Dwight Eisenhower—along with their escort ships and a complement of 2,500 marines into the Mediterranean. They already have 2,500 troops in Iraq and 900 in Syria, but US presence is now feeling the heat as well. Nineteen drone and missile attacks have taken place on US bases in Iraq and Syria and are likely to increase. The US fired their first shots of the war when two F-16s attacked sites in Syria linked to Iran’s Republican Guards in retaliation for the attack on US troops. Although Iran has denied any participation, its proxies are actively engaged and it too could get directly involved if the situation escalates. A US-Iran confrontation could then be on the cards.
But in the larger geo-political game, the United States is losing out at the expense of China and Russia. Even as Biden made a visit to Israel to soothe feathers, President Sisi of Egypt, King Abdullah of Jordan and the Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas refused to meet him in the outrage that followed the attack on Al-Alhi hospital. The US and the Western world will stand by Israel, but Russia and China are cleverly exploiting this growing rift. Russia is clearly elated that the war will divert aid and attention away from Ukraine and with straight-faced chutzpah, Putin condemned “Israeli aggression against a neighbour.” China too sees this as an opportunity to further its interests in the Middle East. Ironically, both are now proposing the two-state solution that had been effectively swept under the carpet earlier. This conflict will further cement the growing China-Russia-Iran axis, that can challenge US power in Europe, the Indo-Pacific and the Middle East. And the erupting tinder-box of the Middle East will divert the US from the ongoing war in Europe and the potential one over Taiwan.
NOW WHAT?
Israel has commenced raids into Gaza with tanks and commando teams in a prelude to a ground invasion. But the ground invasion will actually achieve little, but cause wanton destruction and raise the specter of a regional war. It may not even attain the aims it sets out for itself. Intelligence based strikes specifically targeting Hamas leadership and cadres, raids on their rocket sites, communication centers and Headquarters will be more effective, and may enable them to release the hostages with greater safety. Israel wants retribution which it should get, but perhaps they can follow their earlier model when they slowly tracked down the Nazis perpetuators of the Holocaust and systematically eliminated the terrorists responsible for the murder of Israeli athletes in the Munich Olympics. That process may take longer but it will prove more effective in the long run.
The US has warned its ally of a “rage-fuelled response.” They should know. When they attacked Afghanistan and then Iraq, seeking revenge for the 9/11 attacks, it took them twenty years to achieve nothing, and started their terminal decline as a superpower. An angry Israeli invasion of Gaza may achieve the same. It could eliminate Hamas and its war making potential, but could also spark a wider war that will be impossible to contain. And then Israel’s security will be more fragile than before. 10/7 is Israel’s 9/11 moment, and its response to it could determine the future of both the country and the region.
Ajay Singh is the author of six books and over 200 articles. He is a recipient of the Rabindranath Tagore International Award for Art and Literature.