Syria’s seismic moment will shift balance of power in West Asia

Editor's ChoiceSyria’s seismic moment will shift balance of power in West Asia

The Syrian civil war is over, or so they claim. But for all we know, it could be just the end of one phase and the start of another.

PUNE: THE 11-DAY OFFENSIVE
On 27 November—the same day that Israel signed a ceasefire agreement with the Hezbollah in Lebanon, a conglomeration of Syrian rebel groups, led by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), stormed out of their strongholds and raced towards Damascus. They took the cities of Hama, Homs and Aleppo and stormed into the capital on 8 December, in just 11 days. President Bashar al Assad was forced to flee in a Russian IL-76, that temporarily went off the radar in mid-flight, but eventually reached Moscow where he was given sanctuary. Even as the HTS leader Ahmad al-Sharaa—who goes by the nom de guerre Abu Mohammed al Jolani—announced from a mosque in Damascus, “the future is ours”, jubilant Syrians burst into the streets. The images of Bashar and his father Hafez were torn down and trampled underfoot. The Syrian flag was replaced by the three-starred, green, white and black flag of the rebels. Prisoners were released from the notorious Sednaya prisons, some holding up fingers to denote their years in captivity. Thousands of refugees began moving back from the neighbouring countries where they had sought refuge from the 13-year-long Syrian civil war. Almost overnight, Syria had changed, and the changes will realign the equations of West Asia completely.

Few will shed any tears for Assad. Much was expected from the moderate, soft-spoken Assad, when the ophthalmologist reluctantly took over power from his father Hafez al Assad in 2011. But the hopes evaporated when the Arab Spring singed Syria in 2014. Assad clamped down on the protesters with an iron fist, plunging the country into a civil war against a motley group of players like Al Qaeda, the Islamic State, Kurdish militia groups, the Syrian Democratic Front and others. It took Assad 13 years to crush the rebels—using Russian and Iranian support and even indiscriminate bombing and chemical weapons against his own people. That war caused over 600,000 casualties and created over 10 million refugees. But when it seemed that Assad had finally cemented his position, the HTS and its allies launched the lightning offensive that overthrew a 51-year family regime in just 11 days.

The Hayat Tahrir al-Sham—or The Organisation for the Liberation of the Levant—is a Sunni Islamist organisation that grew in the turmoil of the civil war. Originally called Jabhat al Nusra, it was an affiliate of Al Qaeda; it then turned towards the Islamic State, before it split ties with both and formed the Hayat Tahrir al-Sham with the merger of several rebel factions. Ironically, the group which is now feted, has been designated as a terrorist organisation by the United Nations, the USA and others, and its leader, Jolani, carries a $10 million reward on his head. But that now seems history. This extremist terror organisation is now hailed as the saviour of Syria, and for all practical purposes has adopted a moderate face—for the time being, at least.

ROLE OF OTHER PLAYERS
But how did the HTS and its allies sweep through Syria so easily and completely? The poorly paid and demoralised Syrian Army is already fragmented and did not fight. They had been dependent on the Russian Air Force, and Hezbollah and Shia militia fighters from Iran, to bolster them during the civil war. This time, neither Russia, nor Iran was there to help. Russia is an Assad ally and has significant stakes in Syria with an airbase in Khmeimim, and a naval base in Tartus, which provides it with the only warm water port with access to the Mediterranean. But it has been preoccupied with the 34-month-long war in Ukraine, which now seems to be heading for some sort of a conclusion. Maybe they did not want to jeopardise the prospects of a negotiated peace when Trump takes over, by a needless entanglement in Syria. Iran too was unable to help. The proxies they use have been severely degraded. Hamas is virtually gone; Hezbollah has been decapitated, and the Houthis are gasping for survival. They are no position to intervene now.
The hidden hand behind this offensive is likely to be that of Turkey. Turkey has over 3 million Syrian refugees in their territory, and Assad had refused offers to get them back. This now creates the ground for their return. The return of over 10 million refugees from neighbouring countries where they had sought refuge from the civil war, is one of the major plus points of this new phase of conflict. Plus, Turkey has its own stakes in crushing the Kurds—who seek a Kurdish homeland in the border areas of Turkey and Syria—and this gives them an opportunity to do so.

Israel has claimed, with some justification, that their actions against Hamas, Hezbollah, the Houthis and Iran paved the way for this major development. Syria was another proxy in Iran’s “Axis of Resistance” and Assad a major Iranian ally. Syria also provided the only land route for Iran to supply its proxies in Gaza and Lebanon, and this has now been cut off. Iran has lost its proxies now, and who is next in line? Iran itself? Quite likely. Iran is diminished, its own defences have been breached and its limitations exposed. The fall of Assad could well be the signal for resistance groups inside Iran to rise against the repressive Ayatollahs—with a little help from the USA and Israel, of course—and a regime change looks very much on the cards.

It is significant that within a day of the fall of Damascus, Israeli jets hit a chemical factory and rocket production facilities in Syria—presumably to prevent the assets falling into wrong hands. Around 400 air strikes hit Syrian military bases, that virtually destroyed the Syrian navy and air force and 70-80% of Syrian Army assets. Israeli troops also occupied the demilitarised buffer zone in the Golan Heights and Israel commandos took over Mount Hermon, the highest point on the Heights, which overlooks Israel itself, and has often been used by militants for observation and attacks into Israeli territory. Israel is now in complete control of the strategic heights which dominate Israel, Jordan, Syria and Lebanon and just 40 km from Damascus, and it is unlikely that they will ever be vacated. It is part of the nibbling actions that have begun in the chaos of Syria. Turkey too has encroached in the north to create a “safe zone” against the Kurds who seek to create their own state in the border areas there.

The USA, or rather Donald Trump has stated that, “this is not our fight,” indicating that it would not get involved. But it has its own interests in the region. 900 US troops are housed in bases within Syria. They would not like Islamic fundamentalism to take sway in the region. It is also a glorious opportunity to remove Russian, Chinese and Iranian influence completely, assert their own influence and create a power bloc of USA, Israel, Saudi and UAE that would reshape the power alignments of West Asia permanently.
And what of Syria itself? A new salvation government has been announced with a caretaker, Prime Minister Mohammed al Bashir, which is likely to continue till March 25, when a new all-inclusive government would be formed. But will that really happen? Will the HTS really be the moderates that they now proclaim themselves to be, or will they slip back to their old extremist avatar? The group is a loose alliance of different groups with different agendas—like the Kurd dominated Syrian Democratic Front (supported by USA) who want a Kurdish homeland, and the Turkey supported Syrian National Army which is at odds with them. Other groups also have pockets of influence in the south. Will that alliance hold, or will the armed groups all try to assert dominance in the areas they control? Already there have been reports of fighting between the Kurdish groups and the Turkey supported factions, who have begun moving into Kurd dominated areas. The country is also ripped by sectarianism between the largely predominant Sunnis, and the Shias, Christians and Alawites who make up around 15% of the population. If the differences erupt, Syria could slip into another cycle of revenge and violence and may even splinter. This will draw radicals like Al Qaeda and the Islamic State, which can cause resurgence of Islamic fundamentalism in the region.

The Syrian civil war is over, or so they claim. But for all we know, it could be just the end of one phase and the start of another. It is more than the overthrow of a regime. It is a seismic moment that will shift the entire balance of power in the region. And the changes it brings in, may not be for the good. And with USA, Israel, Turkey, Iran, Russia, Saudi and other powers all having vested interests in Syria, the region could well be headed for another period of great instability and churn.

* Ajay Singh is the international award winning author of seven books and over 200 articles. He is a recipient of the Rabindranath Tagore International Award for Art and Literature, and a regular contributor to The Sunday Guardian.

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