Final phases will decide Akhilesh’s future

The last two phases of elections in Uttar Pradesh will not only decide the next government in the state but will also decide the political future of Chief Minister and Samajwadi Party president Akhilesh Yadav.

In the final phases of the elections, Akhilesh Yadav’s decisions that he took after deposing his father Mulayam Singh Yadav from the party president’s post on 1 January, will be put to severe test.

Mr Yadav’s decision to snap ties with the Qaumi Ekta Dal (QED), led by Mukhtar Ansari and his refusal to give tickets to his father and uncle Shivpal’s loyalists will have a direct bearing on these two phases.

The merger of  QED into the Samajwadi Party in June last year was a well thought out strategy by Mulayam Singh Yadav to keep his Muslim following intact in eastern UP. The Ansari brothers wield considerable clout in districts in eastern UP and the SP was looking for further gains with them.

The Chief Minister not only opposed the merger, but also made sure that this issue triggered off  a war in the family. The merger was announced a second time by Mulayam Singh Yadav at a press conference, but when he took over as party president, Akhilesh denied tickets to the Ansari brothers.

The Chief Minister reasoned that he did not wish to induct criminals in his party—a stand that got demolished in recent weeks when he openly patronised two of his candidates charged with rape and murder—Arun Varma and Gayatri Prajapati.

The QED has now merged with the BSP and the Muslim shift to the BSP is visible in Purvanchal. The BSP has given tickets to Mukhtar Ansari from Mau, his son Abbas Ansari from Ghosi and his brother Sigbatullah Ansari from Ghazipur.

Abbas Ansari asks, “We are definitely upset with the Samajwadi Party for insulting us. SP leaders sought our support in the Rajya Sabha elections and then insisted on the merger. Moreover, if  Akhilesh Yadav was so averse to QED, why did he send his emissary to my father and uncle (both MLAs) to sign affidavits in his favour for the Election Commission?”

Moreover, after the family battle, Mulayam Singh Yadav has refused to campaign for  “Akhilesh’s candidates” and the worst hit is Azamgarh, the parliamentary constituency of the senior Yadav. The SP had won eight of the nine Assembly seats in Azamgarh, but with Mulayam Singh keeping away from the campaign, the party’s prospects seem bleak in the district.

Akhilesh Yadav, after gaining control over the party, also denied tickets to senior party ministers who had professed their loyalty to his father. SP’s founding members like Ambica Chaudhary and Narad Rai were denied tickets. Both have joined the BSP and are contesting on the BSP symbol and are campaigning against the SP in Ballia. In Ghazipur, two ministers who have been denied tickets—Vijay Misra and Shadab Fatima—are campaigning against the SP.

A senior political analyst says, “Akhilesh has unwittingly burnt too many bridges in the past two months. If he can manage a comfortable majority for his party—which now seems almost out of the question—his leadership will not be questioned, but if the SP tumbles down, he could be in serious trouble. His own leaders will begin to return to Mulayam and Shivpal, and Akhilesh will be politically isolated”.

A senior SP leader echoes similar sentiments and says, “Akhilesh  does not have the political perspective of a situation. If he cannot form government, he will have more enemies than friends by his side.”