Discomfort in Bihar NDA and its wafer-thin majority in Assembly may lead to instability.
After a close finish in the recently concluded Bihar legislative Assembly election, there are growing signs of discomfort in the ruling National Democratic Alliance (NDA) in the state which may emerge stronger in the coming months. It is not only the opposition parties in the state which are questioning the functioning of the government, but its own constituents which includes the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP). The recent political activities in Patna also highlight that every political party is strengthening its organizational base keeping in mind the volatile political situation in the state and the possibility of a mid-term election. Since the declaration of the Assembly results on 10 November, the leader of Opposition in the state Assembly Tejashwi Prasad Yadav is predicting that a mid-term election in the state is imminent. His Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) is the largest party in the Bihar legislative Assembly with 75 seats.
In recent months, many ministers of the BJP and the Janata Dal United openly targeted their own government on multiple occasions, with one JDU minister Madan Sahani declaring his resignation from the state cabinet which he later withdrew.
Two smaller partners in the Bihar NDA, Hindustani Awam Morcha (HAM) led by former chief minister Jitanram Manjhi and Vikassheel Insaan Party led by state cabinet minister Mukesh Sahani showed their unhappiness after the nomination of 12 Member of Legislative Council (MLCs) in which they did not get any representation and are questioning the governance model of the chief minister time and again.
“This NDA government will fall due to its internal contradictions; from Manjhiji to the state BJP president Sanjay Jaiswal, all are questioning the government and even saying that there is no rule of law in the state. Therefore, we are certain that the government will not complete its term,” Nawal Kishore, national spokesperson of the RJD told The Sunday Guardian. “Nitish Kumar is not able to work independently, as the BJP has taken control over important departments in the state government and I don’t think the CM can take this pressure for long; hence chances of mid-term polls are rising in Bihar,” Premchandra Mishra, Member of Bihar Legislative Council and AICC media-panelist, told The Sunday Guardian.
The merger of the Upendra Kushwaha led-Rashtriya Lok Samta Party (RLSP) with the JDU also signals that Nitish Kumar is trying to reorganize his “Kurmi-Kushwaha” combination as the recent election data showed that the Kushwaha caste which constituted approximately 6% of the Bihar electorate deserted Nitish Kumar’s JDU and voted for other political formations in the election.
“Every party is preparing for the Assembly election in the state, you never know what will happen after the Uttar Pradesh Assembly polls. The longevity of the government depends upon the BJP high command’s next move,” a senior NDA functionary told The Sunday Guardian on the condition of anonymity.
“Many of the MLAs of the ruling alliance are not happy with the bureaucratic control in the state, and are looking to walk out from the government at an appropriate time,” said Raju Tiwari, state president of the Chirag Paswan’s faction of the Lok Janshakti Party (LJP).
The silence of the JDU over the cabinet expansion in the central government is also viewed by many experts of Bihar politics as a cold-war between the two constituents of the NDA, as one cabinet berth was in the offering for the party in 2019 itself, but Nitish Kumar declined the offer of BJP and stuck to his proportional representation demand which has not been fulfilled by the BJP even now.