The BJP’s strategy was thought out well in advance and its implementation was initiated long ago. Then Chief Minister Vijay Rupani and his entire cabinet were removed overnight to tackle anti-incumbency.
The scale of the Bharatiya Janata Party’s victory in Gujarat has been massive, where it won 156 seats with an astounding 52.5% of the total votes polled in the 182-member Assembly. With another five-year term with it, the BJP will rule Gujarat for 32 years, almost matching the Left Front’s 34-year rule in West Bengal that ended in 2011. The Congress dropped to 27.3% votes and 17 seats. The Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) finished a distant third, but its furious foray into the state gained it a 12.9% vote share, and also national party status. AAP’s entry triangulated the Gujarat contest, which worked to the BJP’s advantage. Clearly the vote share swing away from the Congress went in favour of the AAP. There are reasons why this became possible.
The BJP’s strategy to win the election was far-sighted. It was thought out well in advance and its implementation was initiated long back. Ex Chief Minister Vijay Rupani and his entire cabinet were replaced overnight to remove anti-incumbency in the state, and a new team under the chief ministership of Bhupendra Patel was brought in as government. The BJP canvassing was not based just on its last tenure, but on 20 years of its achievements. The BJP, keeping in mind the calculus of a downfall behind its so-called victory in 2017, systematically improved from the weaknesses that were exposed in those Assembly elections. It widened its base by involving at least 11 MLAs and 8 other influential leaders from the Congress who were successful and committed among their communities. Though it was at the cost of ethics, code of conduct, consistency in policy, the only motto that remained supreme in strategy making was the growth of the party base across the state. Union Home Minister Amit Shah took total control of the entire election campaign and directed his team from the top to the bottom. He activated silent and inactive senior leaders, resolved internal dissatisfaction and strengthened team network. The Gujarat BJP president, C.R. Patil strived to get work done according to micro level planning.
The Prime Minister campaigned throughout the state extensively to refresh and recharge his emotional connect with Gujarati voters. He addressed 31 rallies and led three road shows, apart from conducting a number of meetings with party leaders, holding one to one conversations with business leaders, community leaders and party workers. CMs from BJP ruled states, ministers, star campaigners and a number of prominent BJP leaders canvassed extensively and strategically by highlighting a variety of issues, ideology, achievements, as well as BJP’s strengths of “Niti, Niyat and Netrutva”. All these worked positively to incline the voters towards the BJP.
On the other hand, the Congress seemed inactive, ineffective, irrelevant and “faceless” throughout the last one year in comparison with the BJP. In 2017, the election campaign was directed and controlled by Rahul Gandhi himself, which was not seen this time. Looking at the results, it seems that Rahul Gandhi’s absence proved to be a definite loss factor. The Congress leadership of Gujarat remained influential in a specific, limited circle. The Congress remained like the personal property of a few senior state leaders, who have run the Congress for the last two decades. As a result, even after their hard work, particularly in rural areas, neither could they attract new party workers to expand the organisational structure, nor win the voter’s love and respect. The Congress fans are disappointed and saddened by the way the high command is neglecting Gujarat.
The rise of the Aam Aadmi Party in Gujarat is happening largely at the cost of the Congress and is working to the BJP’s advantage. After having ousted the Congress in Delhi and Punjab, AAP has made its presence felt in Gujarat, securing a significant vote share of 12.9%. AAP’s performance fell short in comparison to the glitz in their campaigning, but the votes in Gujarat made it a national party. AAP’s entry triangulated the Gujarat contest. The BJP made inroads into tribal regions and rural constituencies which constituted patches of the Congress’s strength, after AAP’s generous promise of welfare schemes succeeded in seeding a new kind of class politics in the state. Arvind Kejriwal had, during his campaign, repeatedly put out handwritten notes declaring that his party would win in Gujarat, but that hasn’t proved true. He had promised many freebies, but Gujaratis have outrightly rejected the politics of freebies and the culture of intolerant and immature polity. It is a state which characterises development and public welfare.
In the end, amidst such a tumultuous political scenario, finally, the voters remembered their first choice of Prime Minister Narendra Modi and responded positively and voted in his favour. He had characteristically made the Gujarat poll a referendum on himself. On the stump he invoked Gujarati asmita and implored the voters to trust him and the BJP government—a “Bharosa Ni Bhajap Sarkar”.
Sudhir S. Raval is a veteran journalist and columnist from Gujarat and Consulting Editor with iTV Network, New Delhi