Apart from Hindutva, improved law and order situation may be a major poll plank for BJP in western UP.
New Delhi: BJP plans to play the “Hindutva card” in UP Assembly elections to counter Akhilesh Yadav’s caste card.
BJP’s main challenger, the Samajwadi Party (SP) is banking on the politics of caste and minority in the upcoming elections in UP. Apart from this, “improved law and order situation” of the state under the Yogi government will also be BJP’s key poll plank.
With caste politics dominating the electoral battle of Uttar Pradesh, the issues such as farmers’ problems, unemployment and price rise have disappeared. Samajwadi Party is eyeing backward classes and Muslim vote bank. With this in view, the BJP has fielded Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath from Gorakhpur city for the polls to give momentum to Hindutva politics.
Other opposition parties are also counting on caste arithmetic in the largest state of Hindi belt. BJP is at the same time confident of retaining power in the state on the basis of its already set agenda of law and order and Hindutva. Now, it is clear that UP will be the second big state after Bihar where the stage is set for an electoral battle between caste politics and Hindutva. BJP succeeded to a large extent in weakening the regional parties in both the states with the help of ‘Hindutva’ as its agenda. The saffron party came to power with its ally JD(U) in Bihar where it used this agenda. BJP leaders are now claiming that the saffron party will be able to form the government in UP on the agenda of Hindutva and development. That Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath has been made BJP candidate from Gorakhpur is proof of this.
At the same time, SP is trying to unite the backward classes and Muslims in its favour. Most of the leaders quitting BJP to join SP are from backward or other backward classes. These leaders accused the BJP of ignoring the backward classes out of what is being seen as political compulsion.
The real fight is definitely between BJP and SP in UP, with BSP and Congress unable to make their presence felt. BSP may cut into the votes of other parties. Congress leader Priyanka Gandhi Vadra is busy in political experiments, with seniors being sidelined. She is banking on women voters of the state. As part of this strategy, Priyanka has given 50 tickets to women in the first list of 125 candidates. She is also hopeful of support from the youth. But nobody seems to be taking Congress seriously. The party seems to have ignored its issues of price rise, unemployment, etc. Priyanka’s move to appease women is being questioned on the ground that even 10% of women were not given organizational posts in Congress.
SP strategists believe that if Muslims (20%), Yadavs (10%), and half of OBC and Dalit voters (25%) vote for Akhilesh then the party will sail through. Moreover, if one fourth of forward classes who are 20% go with SP, the BJP will be in crisis. SP believes that Congress will cut into the upper caste votes which will also benefit it. Akhilesh’s party is also of the view that Muslims will not waste their vote by supporting others. The party will also benefit in western UP due to its alliance with Jayant Chaudhary’s party. If the results are is in accordance with SP’s analysis, BJP will face massive defeat in the elections.
In fact, SP’s calculations are like those of Congress in 2019 Lok Sabha polls. Congress then calculated that BJP would not be able to repeat the performance of 2014 in Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, Haryana, Chhattisgarh, Delhi, Bihar, Jharkhand, Punjab, Uttarakhand, Jammu and Kashmir, Himachal and Maharashtra. But nothing like that happened. BJP won more seats in 2019 than 2014. Now the UP seems to be headed towards the same situation, with BJP using Hindutva as a big electoral weapon.
Improvement in law and order in the state will be another big poll agenda for BJP. The ruling party is already trying to cash in on PM Narendra Modi’s image. PM Modi is supposed to be a big counter to the politics of backward classes as he himself belongs to the OBC. BJP believes that half of the total 42% OBCs will be with the ruling party apart from the entire 20% upper caste votes that it is sure of getting. The Saffron party believes that Brahmin community will not vote for any other parties except BJP. Similarly, BJP is confident of getting a major chunk of Dalit votes. Then, the Owaisi’s party AIMIM will cut into Muslim votes as well to the benefit of the BJP.
The BJP has its plan ready to try and polarize the voters on communal lines through the Hindutva agenda in eastern UP. Mandir, abrogation of Article 370 in Kashmir, etc. are the issues to be pushed by the BJP for this purpose.