All predictions are likely to fall flat on result day.
JAIPUR
Given the tough fight between Congress and BJP, the Rajasthan elections are gradually getting interesting like a one-day cricket match in which the spectators keep their fingers crossed till the last ball. Similarly, Rajasthan’s results will be known only on 3 December as no prediction is possible as of now. Predictions of all survey agencies including “trusted” Phalodi Satta Bazar are set to fall flat. This is going to happen for the first time in Rajasthan polls. Voters are maintaining complete silence, so it is difficult to gauge their mood. Needless to say, both the Congress and the BJP made some mistakes in ticket distribution this time. However, some weak candidates might win just because of their luck.
At the same time, the internal tussle during ticket allocation in Congress falsified the claims that Chief Minister Ashok Gehlot and former PCC chief Sachin Pilot are getting along well with each other. The BJP is also going to pay a heavy price due to internal feud between former Chief Minister Vasundhara Raje and other BJP leaders, and also wrong ticket allocation on recommendation of the Vishwa Hindu Parishad. The party might lose three seats in Jaipur City due to tickets given on recommendations from these groups. Every single seat will matter. The BJP leaders will have to work harder in days to come to give momentum to the campaign. Meanwhile, Congress claims that the voters are in its favour that is why they are silent now.
According to an assessment of intellectuals and journalists, Congress will perform well, but it may not reach majority mark. They say that BJP might get a respectable number of seats. Like previously, BJP may cross 60 seats. They give examples of 2008 and 2018. But their prediction creates doubts as when they say that Congress might cross 70 seats due to Gehlot’s schemes, but could not possibly go beyond 100. The question is why Congress cannot go beyond 100 if it can get 70. The situation today is different from what happened in 2013. Then the Congress was at the Centre as well as in the state. There was a strong anti-incumbency against the UPA government at the Centre then. There was also anti-incumbency against the Congress government in Rajasthan as well. Moreover, Modi’s wave had also begun which resulted in big defeat of Congress at the Centre and in the state. There is no anti-incumbency visible against Gehlot this time.
On the other hand, BJP does not have any local face. BJP is fighting on PM Modi’s face. This experiment could not however succeed in Karnataka and Himachal Pradesh. It is the central scheme versus state schemes.
Gehlot is confident that Congress will retain power on the basis of his schemes. Congress is also fighting on seven guarantees.