Congress performance in Jharkhand, Maha will decide I.N.D.I.A future

New Delhi: The performance of the Congress in the assembly elections in Jharkhand and Maharashtra is seen to be critical for the “confidence” and “durability” of the I.N.D.I.A. bloc led by the Congress at the national level. As it is the first election where multiple parties with almost equal political footing in the bloc (in their respective states) are fighting together against the Bharatiya Janata Party-led National Democratic Alliance.
After the formation of the I.N.D.I.A. group in July last year (2023), has contested together in the Lok Sabha elections. But before that Congress was on its own.
An expert said, “The three important elections, Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan and Chattisgarh, in North India that happened after the formation of the bloc were bipolar, between Congress and the BJP. The Congress lost all the three elections raising questions on its leadership. The Lok Sabha elections were a relief for the bloc as it reduced the ruling BJP from absolute majority to minority government. But then Haryana elections’ loss took away as much glory as I.N.D.I.A. had gained bringing the onus on Congress for its clueless performances.”
Although the party is seen to be making efforts in Maharashtra, the Congress is equally seen to be on a backfoot in Jharkhand. The party had won 16 assembly seats in 2019 assembly elections.
According to party insider, the local assessment of leaders in the state suggests that the party will not be able to win more than eight assembly seats however the internal party surveys depict the Congress party getting around 10 assembly seats.
A Congress leader said, “We are not in a good position in the state, the main problem has been the state leadership. They did not try to improve the cadre strength and could not hold people in positions accountable. That is actually the problem with most of the state cadres of Congress.”
Congress leaders suggest that the Jharkhand Mukti Morcha (JMM) will perform well on ST seats (which are 28) and retain around or more than 25 assembly seats of total 81 assembly constituencies.
However if the Congress does not provide JMM with the numbers they need for the formation of the government, it’s reputation within the alliance may decline.
After the loss in Haryana, there was a change in tone from the Samajwadi Party during the seat distribution in Uttar Pradesh, as the loss gave SP an upper hand. But soon enough Congress MP Rahul Gandhi took the charge of the situation and talked directly to the SP chief Akhilesh Yadav to keep the spirit of the alliance alive.
A Congress leader privy to the developments said, “Congress was demanding some seats out of the 10 for the bypolls. They weren’t going to win any of the seats they were demanding. Moreover, Rahul took the feedback from general secretary in-charge of UP, Avinash Pandey who conveyed to him the weakness of Congress on ground, after which Rahul told Akhilesh Yadav that they can contest on all seats and Congress would support them.”
According to a political observer, “The Congress party has already lost elections which they internally were claiming they would win by huge margins. What message has it sent? Wherever the Congress is fighting alone they are losing. And when it is in alliance with other parties, if their alliance does not come to power, the fingers will be pointed only towards the Congress because it has not won any important elections alone in the north.”
A political observer said, “Congress is at a stage where it has to win back to back assembly elections in order to shake the ruling BJP. And if it keeps losing, and gets defeated by the BJP then the party will continue to veer away, and lose their strength in states where it is heading the government.”