NEW DELHI: Low voting percentage is giving some hope to the Opposition, although it is not certain if they are actually benefiting.
The general elections so far have been quite confusing. After the second phase of elections, the low voter turnout has put both political parties and pundits in a fix. Both are wondering about the outcome on 4 June. On the one hand, the ruling NDA has breathed a sigh of relief with the slightly higher voting percentage during the second phase in Hindi belt states like Rajasthan and Chhattisgarh, while the low voting turnout in Uttar Pradesh, Madhya Pradesh and Bihar has increased its concern. Apart from this, the voting trend of Maharashtra is also confusing. However, there is enthusiasm in NDA due to record voting in states like Assam and other northeastern states and Bengal. But in the Hindi belt, 7-8% less voting compared to 2019 is shocking.
Nonetheless, this low voting percentage is giving some hope to the Opposition, although is very difficult to say whether it is really benefiting from the low voting. The situation doesn’t suggest that the odds are in favour of the Opposition. The reasons are quite apparent. One reason is that in the Hindi belt, the Opposition neither seemed aggressive in its campaigning nor did it put any effort to create a wind of adversity against NDA. Moreover, lack of enthusiasm and indifference of the voters can’t be called a good sign for democracy. Political parties are entirely responsible for this attitude of the voters.
Political parties somehow failed to create an atmosphere that would encourage the voters to involve themselves in this festival of democracy. Low voting is being considered harmful for the ruling party as well, because the old trends suggest the same. But will the high voting in non-Hindi speaking states be considered favourable for the ruling party? Therefore, it is difficult to suggest the direction of election this time. But one thing is certain that the strategy of BJP is going to change in all the phases this time. The strategy and the issues will differ and shift with every passing phase. As we all witnessed the immediate change of gear after the first phase as the Prime Minister altered his speeches and the technique to woo the voters in his campaigns.
Till the first phase of voting, Prime Minister Modi used to reiterate the slogan “400 paar” and “Modi’s guarantee” that were put on the back burner after the first phase. Many factors attributed to this. First is the sluggishness of BJP workers, who became too complacent assuming a victory to be a cakewalk. Secondly, the Opposition started to claim that the BJP would change the Constitution by ending reservation. Even the Sangh did not agree with the slogans of 400 and Modi’s guarantee. In the second round, Prime Minister Modi raised the issue of Prime Minister Manmohan Singh saying “Muslims have the first right to resources” and about Rahul Gandhi’s wealth redistribution plan. Thus the elections went into a Hindu-Muslim pitch.
Among the Hindi speaking states, the most important for BJP are the remaining seats of Uttar Pradesh and Bihar. In the coming phases, the main focus will be on Uttar Pradesh. The real picture of 2024 will be clear only from the remaining seats of Uttar Pradesh. BJP has the maximum expectations from Uttar Pradesh. Therefore, the election issues may change once again in the coming days.
The situation in Uttar Pradesh appears to be almost the same as that of other states. There is no special enthusiasm about voting. There is no wave of any kind. In such a situation, less voting is expected. Muslim voters voted in the second phase, but there was no one-sided voting. BJP camps are the same. There is a concern that caste politics might gain momentum again, as it may have happened in Rajasthan in the first phase. But the BJP appears to have done better in the second phase in Rajasthan than the first phase. If BJP suffers any loss in Rajasthan, it will be because of the poor selection of candidates. Things appear uncertain in Churu, Jhunjhunu, Sikar, Dausa and Tonk-Sawai Madhopur. It is possible that something similar may happen in other states too. In short, the elections are proving to be perplexing until now.