New Delhi
Well-known psephologists say the mood of the nation is in contradiction to such an extent that PM Modi with his tall stature takes up all of the space in the voters’ psyche, being both the perpetrator and the savior. The one big hindrance though that the Bharatiya Janata Party faces ahead of the 2024 Lok Sabha elections is the failure of the “double-engine government” as BJP-ruled states’ performances have nose-dived since 2019 eroding away 50 per cent of its victories across the country.
BOTH FRIEND AND FOE
Yashwant Deshmukh, the founder and director of C-Voter, said while speaking at the Festival of Idea’s “Narrative 2024” session that although the housewives’ “kitchen budget” is going out of hand, and the general public is worried about both inflation and unemployment, yet when surveys on the ground are held amid the opposition calling for ousting of the Modi government on these two accounts among many more, the voter of the next election feels there is no alternative to PM Modi just yet.
Even when the opposition faced with the question of what should be the solution to these burning issues, they throw the ball into the prime minister’s court. They say “let Modi provide that solution”. It is a weird situation where Narendra Modi is both the problem as well as the solution.
Since the run-up to the 2014 general elections and till date, the biggest challenge that Modi’s BJP have had not to face is corruption at the central level. Corruption under Modi has been erased from Union government actors’ surroundings, said Deshmukh, adding that as such the “40 percent” and “50 percent” government of the Karnataka and Haryana BJP at the states’ level has been huge blows to the party.
TOWERING WORLD IMAGE
Lokniti Co-Director Sanjay Kumar, on the other hand, said the mood of the nation is running on parallel tracks – people’s anxieties on price rise (and that is a majority of the population) and a humongous popularity of Modi that has only improved in leaps and bounds over the past decade.
“India’s image in the world has gone up after PM Modi took the stage. He has asserted the image of India everywhere he went, be it national, international,” said Kumar explaining how that has only gone to aid the party’s image, keeping it dominant since 2014, be it assembly elections or the 2019 general elections.
As moderator Priya Sahgal raised the point of “PM scoring above all others”, author and journalist Rashid Kidwai accepted that while Modi is nearly untouchable scoring 47 percent on popularity quotient, his nearest opponent Congress scion Rahul Gandhi hovers at 27 per cent.
Kidwai though raised a word of caution that unlike 2019 when BJP got the boost from the Pulwama attack, the Balakot strike, this time around the scenario has changed. The opposition now has a pre-poll alliance and are acting battle-ready.
Sahgal raised the question whether ahead of 2024, anyone can come up from the opposition who would deliver better than the prime minister? Deshmukh said: “Modi with his solution provider image, his doer/ go-getter image that could be a tough call for anybody.” Elaborating his point the C-Voter director said that despite many huge failures that an exercise like the demonetization tops, Modi’s image has not been dented at all.
MODI’S MEHNAT V/S RAGA’S MOHABBAT
Kumar says the narrative that the government is trying to set, is that it is definitely all about Modi, and while the image of Rahul Gandhi, though it has changed post the Bharat Jodo Yatra, is not sufficient. “Yes he has kind of shed the ‘pappu’ from his name but that is not enough to take on Modi himself.”
Sahgal reminded that narrative is also a tool for marketing, to which Kumar added that it is exactly why there is a difference between narrative and evidence. “Nationalism is being used to cover the deficiencies of the government,” said the Lokniti co-director.
It is here that Kidwai, who has written a plethora of literature on the Gandhis and the grand old party, reminded that sometimes narratives backfire, just like India Shining of 2004 during Atal Behari Vajpayee’s time. But he accepted that there is a huge difference between Vajpayee and Modi.
If the 2024 polls turn out to be even closer to a 60:40 BJP to Opposition ratio in terms of vote share, it would still make a huge difference to the saffron party, Kidwai added.
2014 TO 2019 TO 2024
All these narratives have aided the facilitation of taking away the focus from the fact that the BJP has lost 50 percent of all elections since 2019, said Deshmukh, pointing to the fact that this basically translates to “others are in fact improving slowly and steady”.
Congress’ state units are getting better, thanks to their president Mallikarjun Kharge, the warring factions in Karnataka are one unit and successful, Rajasthan has also stopped being in news for the Gehlot-Pilot feud.
“Localisation of election is good for the opposition, but when it comes to the BJP, while national leadership is their asset, the states are its speed breakers,” said Deshmukh elaborating with the famous helmet advertisement. “Marzi aapki sar hai aapka,” he added.