Konkan prepares for a pivotal election as rival Shiv Sena factions clash, impacting Maharashtra’s political future.
New Delhi: The Konkan region of Maharashtra is gearing up for an intense political battle in the upcoming state Assembly elections, scheduled for a single phase on November 20, 2024. As the nomination period closed on October 29, the coastal belt readies itself for a high-stakes election across 75 seats. The region will see a fierce contest between the ruling Mahayuti alliance and the opposition Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA), with particular attention on the internal rift within the Shiv Sena, now divided into factions led by Maharashtra’s Chief Minister Eknath Shinde and former Chief Minister Uddhav Thackeray. The outcome in this critical region is likely to shape Maharashtra’s political landscape for the next five years.
The Konkan region, comprising the districts of Mumbai, Thane, Kalyan, Palghar, Raigad, and Ratnagiri-Sindhudurg, was historically a stronghold for the undivided Shiv Sena. Despite its diverse population, the region—including the Mumbai Metropolitan Region (MMR)—remained a bastion for Shiv Sena, largely due to the support of locals who moved to Mumbai. Once dominated by Congress, the region gradually shifted toward the Shiv Sena, as Bal Thackeray’s influence and policies won him widespread popularity, securing Shiv Sena’s dominance. In the 2019 elections, the unified Shiv Sena secured 29 seats and its then ally BJP claimed 27 seats, giving their alliance a stronghold of 56 out of 75 seats, while keeping Congress and NCP under 15 seats.
Since the split between Shiv Sena and NCP in June 2022, the political landscape in the region has changed significantly. This makes the upcoming assembly elections particularly compelling, as the two factions of Shiv Sena compete for victory. Maharashtra Chief Minister Eknath Shinde, who broke away from Uddhav Thackeray’s Shiv Sena to form his own faction and joined forces with BJP, will now face a critical test in these elections. Though Shinde rose to the state’s top position with the backing of just 40 MLAs, he now challenges the Uddhav Thackeray-led Shiv Sena to prove whether it still holds the same popular support it did in the 2019 Assembly polls. Moreover, the situation is especially challenging for Thackeray’s faction, as the post-split defections of key leaders—including two of the four former MPs and over 20 of the 29 sitting MLAs from Konkan—have left Thackeray with a weakened base. This election is critical for him, as he aims to uphold his late father Balasaheb Thackeray’s legacy and prove the worth of his leadership, despite the considerable losses within his party.
In the recent Lok Sabha elections, the Shinde-led Shiv Sena, BJP, and Ajit Pawar-led NCP secured seven seats in the Konkan region. BJP won in Palghar, Ratnagiri-Sindhudurg, and Mumbai North, while NCP retained Raigad. Shiv Sena claimed victories in Thane, Kalyan, and Mumbai North West. Meanwhile, the MVA won five seats, with Thackeray’s Shiv Sena taking three and the Congress and NCP (SP) each winning one. However, a closer analysis of the Lok Sabha results by Assembly segments shows Mahayuti leading in 48 Assembly seats, compared to the MVA’s lead in 27—indicating an advantage for Mahayuti in the region. Yet, this Assembly election brings fresh challenges, as both, the Shinde-led and Thackeray-led factions of the Shiv Sena will face pressure not only from the opposition, but also from within their alliances. Both factions must prove their significance in the coalition, as the dynamics and demands of Assembly elections differ greatly from those of the Lok Sabha elections.
Although the upcoming assembly polls will serve as a battleground for the two factions of the Shiv Sena, determining which of the two claims the people’s mandate as the true Sena. A key contest will be in Worli, where Uddhav Thackeray’s son, Aaditya Thackeray, will face off against Shiv Sena’s Rajya Sabha MP Milind Deora, a three-time MP from South Mumbai. Deora, who was tasked with managing Worli during the Lok Sabha polls, narrowed Aaditya’s lead to just 6,500 votes, despite Worli being Aaditya’s stronghold. Additionally, MNS candidate Sandeep Deshpande is set to compete in the constituency, further intensifying the race.
Another high-stakes contest will be in the Kopri-Pachpakhadi seat in Thane, where Maharashtra Shinde will go up against Kedar Dighe, nephew of Shinde’s mentor Anand Dighe. This contest is not only about dominance but also about preserving the party’s legacy, as Thane was the first area to give Shiv Sena its strong foothold.
Beyond these, the Shinde-led Sena and Shiv Sena (UBT) are set to clash on 10 seats in Mumbai, including traditional strongholds like Mahim, where Shiv Sena’s Sada Sarvankar will face Sena (UBT)’s Mahesh Sawant. Other notable constituencies witnessing this factional battle include Jogeshwari (East), Magathane, Kurla, Vikhroli, Dindoshi, Chembur, and Andheri (East).
A political analyst following Maharashtra’s political landscape closely, said that these assembly polls are significantly more intense and, in many ways, will determine the true Shiv Sena. The two Shiv Sena factions are vying to win back their traditional voter bases, while BJP is seeking to strengthen its foothold in the region. The ruling alliance plans to leverage its focus on Hindutva and development, along with a range of new schemes, to gain support. In response, the opposition has highlighted alleged corruption, scams, and irregularities.