New Delhi: After a thumping victory in the Kerala local body elections held in December 2020, experts believe that CPI (M) has an edge over Congress-led UDF alliance. Meanwhile, talks are underway to implement the model of conduct in Kerala in February.
N.M. Pearson, senior political commentator, told The Sunday Guardian, “This landslide victory has helped LDF to give them an advantage in the next Kerala Assembly election. The reason for the victory is the people had acknowledged the government’s efforts during the floods, pandemic and Nipah virus outbreak. During the 2018, Chief Minister Pinarayi Vijayan had visited several places and took stock of the situation. Regular press briefings were provided and that had instilled belief that the government is working for the people.”
Prabhash, political analyst, told The Sunday Guardian, “During the pandemic, the government had vegetable kits and rice for free and this helped the CPIM and its alliance during the election. When government stands with the people during the crisis, the people certainly show confidence in return. Moreover, in the local body elections, it is always LDF that is strong and in the parliamentary elections, Congress-led UDF has more chances winning elections.”
Pearson also believed that lower-class voters, who supported the CPIM in the local body election, will continue its support in the Assembly election. He said, “In the local body elections, electorates from lower-class community supported the LDF because they were the primary beneficiary of the vegetable kits distribution during the pandemic. This support will continue in the Assembly elections.”
However, Prabash does not think so. “The CM is saying that the Congress has become irrelevant and a non-entity in Kerala politics. If that is the case, which party is relevant in the upcoming election? According to Vijayan, it is the BJP. The CM thinks that by giving such statements, the minority community would vote for the CPIM. I don’t think this will happen. Moreover, if the BJP has become relevant in Kerala politics, why would upper caste, who are supporting the LDF, vote for the alliance?”
Moreover, CPIM’s alliance partner, the Nationalist Congress Party (NCP), may also leave the front.
The rift is wide open within the NCP with the formation of two factions in the party. Prabash also talked about the current polarization in Kerala. “Because of the BJP’s entry, the politics in Kerala has become polarized. If Congress declares Oommen Chandy as the CM candidate, then it is not necessary that Hindu voters would vote for the Congress,” Prabash said.
Speaking about the possibility of implementation model of conduct in Kerala in February, Pearson said, “I don’t think it is necessary. Any way the momentum is the CPIM’s favour. The people are supporting the party and the party is exhorting youngsters. The corruption case against M. Sivasankar won’t stand against the LDF because there is a lot of sympathy wave in favour of CPIM and its alliance partner.”
Prabash said, “If there is any such planning, then the CPIM will be doing blunder. The CPIM has a clear advantage in the upcoming election.”