NEW DELHI: It’s a worrying situation in the Hindi belt, and disappointing in the South.
Congress is pleased at winning 99 seats, but the overall analysis indicates the results are not really promising. Out of 216 seats in the Hindi-speaking states, Congress has secured 25 seats. If Gujarat’s 26 seats are included, it won just 26 out of 242.
In direct contests, Congress managed to win only 9 seats, with 8 in Rajasthan and 1 in Chhattisgarh, despite forming alliances with two regional parties in Rajasthan. In Haryana, Congress won five seats in alliance with the Aam Aadmi Party. In other Hindi-speaking states, Congress drew a blank, losing all 38 seats in Madhya Pradesh, Uttarakhand, and Himachal Pradesh. But Congress is portraying all this as a major victory.
In Uttar Pradesh, Jharkhand, and Bihar, Congress managed to win only 11 out of 136 seats with the help of alliances. Whether in direct contests or with alliances, winning is becoming increasingly difficult for Congress. This marks the third consecutive Lok Sabha elections where Congress failed to cross the 100-seat mark. Direct contests are no longer easy for Congress. Moreover, difficulties are mounting in southern states as well, with the BJP posing a direct challenge. Despite being out of power in Karnataka and Telangana, the BJP remains strong and has increased its seat count in the Lok Sabha. In Kerala, the BJP made significant inroads by winning the Thrissur seat and challenging Shashi Tharoor in Thiruvananthapuram. Kerala, traditionally a battleground between Congress and the Left Front, now faces a threat from the BJP’s entry.
Although the Congress is currently pleased with the support of the I.N.D.I Alliance, political dynamics in Kerala could sour its relations with the Left. The situation could worsen for Congress once Rahul Gandhi resigns from the Wayanad seat, as the party lacks a strong replacement. With the death of Oommen Chandy and the ageing of A.K. Antony, there are few strong leaders left. Although K.C. Venugopal is a potential candidate to be sent to Kerala, it remains to be seen if he will go. Congress has been out of power in Kerala for ten years, with elections due in one and a half years. The BJP is gearing up to contest the Assembly elections with full force. Currently, Congress has won 14 seats from Kerala in the Lok Sabha, the highest among the southern states.
In Odisha, Congress won only one seat and failed to make an impact in the Assembly elections. In Karnataka, Deputy Chief Minister D.K. Shivakumar had made tall claims, but Congress secured only 9 out of 28 seats in the Lok Sabha. In Telangana, despite being in power, Congress won only 8 out of 17 seats. The BJP has gradually made significant inroads in southern states where Congress once relied on returning to power. In Gujarat, Congress barely managed to win a single seat, marking a difficult start.
Congress has surprised its allies by winning 13 seats in Maharashtra through alliances. With Assembly elections in Maharashtra later this year, it remains to be seen whether Uddhav Thackeray’s Shiv Sena will grant Congress the Chief Minister’s position or if Uddhav will return to the BJP. Congress needs to deliberate on how to free itself from reliance on crutches and make a comeback in Hindi belt states.
Congress should introspect on the election results and identify the reasons for its defeat. If the current situation persists in the Hindi belt, allies will become more powerful there. Congress is currently content with caste politics and reservations, but this will strengthen regional parties, not the Congress. Without the support of upper castes, Congress cannot stand on its own.
If Congress does not strengthen its organization, regional parties will dominate it. Looking at states like Madhya Pradesh, Congress’ position has deteriorated even more than in Uttar Pradesh.