SRINAGAR: NC-Congress alliance is likely to secure a majority, however, experts warn that they may struggle to govern on their own due to a potential split mandate, elevating the importance of smaller parties.
As there is a strong consideration of National Conference and Congress alliance winning majority seats and forming the government, experts think that the two parties will find it difficult to form the government on its own in the union territory, as the results could throw a split mandate and increase the importance of several smaller parties. Jammu and Kashmir has 90 Assembly seats and five nominated seats.
Several leaders in Jammu region suggest that BJP will mobilise its election machinery in such a way, that it will leave no stone unturned to win as many seats as it can and also expect small parties to lend it support to form the government. An independent surveyor while marking out the presence of BJP in Jammu and Kashmir said that the saffron camp can win around 25 seats from Jammu (which has 43 seats) and could draw a blank in the Kashmir Valley (which has 47 Assembly seats). However, the other party leaders from Jammu suggest that BJP can win around 30 seats due to multiple parties contesting on several seats leading to the vote split of the secular votes and giving the saffron camp edge over other parties.
A former minister in Jammu division said, “There are around half a dozen strong independent candidate across the Jammu and Kashmir and can give a strong fight and also be victorious. The Chenab Valley which has 8 seats, may see BJP winning four seats and the Congress-NC alliance around two. The remaining two seats can be divided between independent and Democratic Progressive Azad Party (DPAP). Such is the current equation in the Chenab Valley.”A senior leader from DPAP said, “We could have performed very well but due to the ill health of Azad sahab and betrayal of few top leaders, the party is losing its momentum. We are expecting victory on around four seats, but it is difficult for us to win them. Let’s see if the division of votes helps us sail over one or two seats.”
People’s Democratic Party (PDP), which is considered to be an underdog and is also fighting for its existence, is considered to be having three safe seats. Moreover, political observers suggest that the victory count of the party can rise up to 12 due to the multiple parties contesting the elections, swaying any political wave for a particular party.
A PDP party insider said, “One should not rule out the importance of PDP in the state.
Although the party has been going through a difficult time and seen exodus of experienced leaders, it has always been a vent for anti-National Conference voters. Above all, we are trying to retain the presence on ground, we may be focusing on lesser seats because of less experienced rank and file (as old leaders have left the party).”
A leader from Sajad Lone’s party People’s Conference (PC), said that the party is expecting victory on four Assembly seats but may not be able to reach that.
Another former legislator said, “Sajad Lone’s prospects will be damaged by Engineer Rashid as he also belongs from the same region of Handwara. Rashid had rolled over ambitions in the recent Lok Sabha elections by defeating the two giants, Omar Abdullah and Sajad Lone. He can again stir the emotions in around half a dozen seats in the upcoming Assembly elections.”
A senior leader at the AICC, close to the top leadership of Congress said, “If the National Conference and Congress get majority, Rahul Gandhi still wants PDP to be the part of government rather than pushing Mehbooba Mufti into opposition. It was Omar Abdullah who did not want PDP to be the part of the alliance, because he feels that his party may lose its voter base.”
Moreover, Apni Party (AP) led by Altaf Bukhari is also seen to be having strong grounds on around three seats but not enough strong to be able to pocket all of them, according to political analysts.