CHENNAI
The AIADMK-BJP split is set to have a tremendous impact on Tamil Nadu politics and the 2024 Lok Sabha elections. With Edappadi K. Palaniswami’s decision to break the alliance with the national party, it is now advantage DMK, the ruling party in Tamil Nadu.
Tamil Nadu Chief Minister M.K. Stalin has been at the forefront of the I.N.D.I.A bloc, instrumental in bringing together the non-BJP leaders in the nation. In his home state too, it is the DMK-led Secular Progressive Alliance which has been seeing victory in the last few elections. On 1 October, Stalin addressed his party district secretaries, Ministers and observers of constituencies through videoconferencing, stating, “People are ready to support the DMK-led INDIA bloc and it is your duty to convert people’s support into votes. In 2019, we won 39 seats, this time we have to win all 40 seats. We have to work hard for this.”
Political commentator Bharath Kumar stated that with the AIADMK-BJP alliance break-up, the Lok Sabha elections became much simpler for the DMK. “The 2024 elections will be an easy task for the DMK. No one will break away from that alliance as they have tasted success in the previous elections be it local body or parliamentary. Thus, the Congress, Viduthalai Chiruthaigal Katchi (VCK), Communist Party of India (CPI), Communist Party of India (Marxist) CPM and the Marumalarchi Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (MDMK) will stick with the DMK and ensure victory.”
In fact, the DMK began preparatory work for the 2024 elections six months ago with training sessions for booth in-charges. More than 65,000 cadres will undergo training to ensure they are election-ready and Stalin has given instructions on exact steps to be taken by those at the grassroots level. The first training camp was kicked off at Stalin on 26 July in Tiruchirapalli and these will be conducted zone-wise across the state. He has instructed cadres to visit voters in their constituencies and talk about the government welfare schemes, the election promises fulfilled by the government and to invoke Kalaignar Karunanidhi’s tremendous work in the state as well. Social media also had to reflect the DMK government’s achievements in a bid to woo voters was the diktat.
The big question though, say some observers, is how the DMK would face the onslaught of both the AIADMK and the BJP. Stalin believes that BJP will put up an aggressive fight, but political commentators believe the saffron party doesn’t have the organizational strength to put up a big fight. There is talk of former AIADMK joint co-ordinator and party member, O. Panneerselvam, and Amma Makkal Munnettra Kazagam leader, T.T.V. Dhinakaran joining hands with the BJP. If this scenario does emerge, then the DMK could see some impact in select regions, like Theni.
“Any anti-incumbency vote will be split between the AIADMK and the BJP. The AIADMK will try to woo the minority votes so the DMK could lose votes here, but overall, they are likely to retain the majority vote share. Since the DMK started working on the elections much earlier, it has an edge over the AIADMK and the BJP,” added Bharath Kumar.
Stalin has been driving home the message to his cadres over the last year repeatedly that the DMK and its allies must win in 2024 to prevent BJP’s continued rule at the Centre and to save democracy. He recently told his party, “We have a duty towards the entire country. We have to spread our ideals of federalism, state autonomy, secularism, social justice, and equality.”
Political analyst Sumanth Raman said, “DMK’s strategy now would be to ensure their alliance wins as many seats as possible in 2024. With the Opposition (AIADMK-BJP) split, this will be the likely outcome if the DMK-led alliance sticks together. Having said that, we don’t know what kind of alliance restructuring will take place in Tamil Nadu after the 2024 Lok Sabha elections.”