Military AI can be the tool of choice to coalesce data over multiple war-fighting domains. Militaries therefore need to proactively embrace data to leverage AI.
Year 2023 was a landmark year for artificial intelligence. The year saw much change than what this technology saw in the last decade or so. While governments are resistant to rapid technological change, the growing geo-political risks and an uptick in asymmetric wars is accelerating the race on AI.
Every new technology comes with its share of scepticism. During World War I, the British Army considered the advent of aircraft as an expensive idea. By end of the war, the allied forces had deployed over ten thousand aircraft. Today, there are more than 50,000 military aircraft operating worldwide. AI is no different, when sceptics worry over its dark potential on the battlefield.
NEW ARMS RACE
Three factors are driving this technological race. First, as a front-line technology, AI has seen rapid transformation from a simple machine language-based face recognition technique, to text and image recognition, and production of high-resolution videos in November last year. The pace at which this technology is transforming is simply impressive. AI is likely to infuse every walk of human life including the battle-space, raising serious concerns of autonomy and vulnerability. Ceding space to machine intelligence and robotics can lead to risks of conflict escalation and control.
Second, the hi-tech industry is outrightly captivated by the prospects of AI and its impact on revenues. AI tech-giants comprising Google, Microsoft, Apple, Tesla, Meta, Amazon and Nvidia account for 30% value of fortune 500 companies and their stock grew by 70% on the S&P Index last year. It is therefore no surprise that every industrial house is busy formulating its AI strategy and policy. In recent times, militaries too have recognized the need to increase investments in AI and examine the potential ways it can be employed in future war-fighting.
While venture capital funding to military startups is lagging, the interest is growing. Notable example is Hypergaint Industries, now acquired by Trive Capital, which specializes in developing geo-spatial visualization tools for strategic infrastructure, space and defence. ARGUS Command Centre fielded by Hypergaint is a powerful tool that enables real-time visualization of data across multiple domains and decision-making from strategic down to tactical level. The fact that defence innovations take a long time to fructify, a business arm to the start-ups is essential to generate revenues, as it waits to get a foothold. Being dual-use is the key to military AI.
And third, the consciousness for AI regulatory processes is on the rise. Governments and tech companies realize that, if left to itself, AI poses unimaginable risk to mankind, life and freedom. Despite these risks, the lure of AI reigns supreme in the minds of the governments, industry and modern militaries. With wars turning increasingly lethal, responsible AI in the military domain is doubtful. Limiting risks to nuclear C2 structures and ensuring compliance of autonomous weapon systems to International Humanitarian Law (IHL) would be a challenge. Silicon chips cannot be left to decide whom to kill, or not. Ideally speaking, AI must reduce harm to civilians and ease the economic impact of war.
EMERGING RIVALRIES IN AI
The US-China rivalry is driving increased spending on newer technologies. More so, when it happens to be AI, and when rough parity exists between the US and China on AI. While the US is way ahead in research on AI, when it comes to adaptation, China is not far behind. For instance, China has been the front-runner in AI driven facial recognition technology. Not only is it expanding control over domestic surveillance, it is exporting this technology to several dozen countries in Africa, and also to some advanced countries in the West.
As Paul Scharre, a noted expert on AI warfare argues in his recent book, Four Battlegrounds: Power in the Age of Artificial Intelligence, Chinese techno-authoritarianism is on the rise. Rivalries in AI are not just about new technologies, ideas and innovation, but outclassing one another by developing superior AI war-fighting platforms to push the boundaries of power and asymmetry.
Would that suggest that an arms race is in offing between the West and China. Surely not, when only a tiny per cent of the government budgets are allocated to AI. But if these small budgetary allocations are to produce disproportionate asymmetric outcomes in conflict, then it is a matter of serious concern.
MILITARY AI
Military AI is all about tightening the kill-chain by processing the right data, at the right time, to arrive at a right targeting decision. Reducing detection to destruction time is the key challenge. AI provides that extra information processing efficiency, so that the military commanders can take informed decisions with much more confidence and conviction.
A few aspects are important. First, AI can accelerate the speed of processing information, in turn augment human cognition and enable informed decision-making and faster response to military situations. Fusion, co-relation and pattern analysis of large pools of data holds the promise of superior informational advantage and action.
Second, AI can assist in traversing multiple war-fighting domains like cyber, space, land, sea or air. Multiple domains imply multiple platforms and systems leading to more confusion. AI models can handle streams of data from diverse sources to provide a common operational picture to military planners and practitioners. A common operational picture would ensure that there are not too many warfighters wasting ammunition on the same target.
Third, AI can enable distributed operations. Thereby, reducing the immediate size and footprint on the battlefield, in turn reducing battle casualties and attrition. AI can help improve the operational survivability of men, machines and material on the battlefield. AI-robotics convergence could further augment conduct of geographically displaced operations.
Fourth, AI can allow decentralization of logistic operations. AI can help map and track availability of food, fuel, water, munitions, transportation, medical support and spares to optimize delivery, when and where it’s most needed. AI holds the promise of predictive logistics, compute readiness levels and troop rotations, and sustainment in field.
And fifth, AI could shrink headquarters and staff. AI software defined tools could assist in ingesting, digesting and processing information. This would impact the current occupational billets and create a demand for new skillsets. Developing AI literacy across the rank and file would indeed be a challenge and require innovative ways of recruiting, training and managing talent.
EMBRACING THE FUTURE
Military AI can be the tool of choice to coalesce data over multiple war-fighting domains. Militaries therefore need to proactively embrace data to leverage AI—which data, and where it lies, and how it could be integrated. Cloud based platforms could allow pooling of this data and its dispersed usage. However, fusing unprotected data with classified data can be a nightmare and is not easy.
While data scientists could assist in ingesting, digesting and interpreting vast pools of military data, its integration would require reasonable levels of AI literacy and liberal funding. Both seem to be in short supply and require a top-down approach. In the Indian military context, AI might require substantial application of mind and money.
Three aspects are pertinent here. Need to encourage and promote AI learning and experimentation in the field units. Development of ingenious AI platforms inhouse to allow military users to interrogate datasets that aid in decision-making. In the long term, identify commercial AI platforms which can be acquired or hardened to deliver military solutions at lower cost.
With LLMs and GenAI presenting path-breaking alternatives in asymmetric war-fighting capabilities, governments, bureaucracies and militaries would need to usher in this change responsibly and its implications on national security with due caution.
Lt General Harinder Singh (Retd), former DGMI and Commander 14 Corps during the eastern Ladakh crisis of 2020.