Cracks in the Indian National Developmental Inclusive Alliance (I.N.D.I.A) have surfaced once again, with the allies declining to give more seats to the Congress, citing its poor winnability rate as the primary reason. However, many analysts believe that the hard posturing was to derive maximum advantage from the seat-sharing arrangements.
It is equally true that the Congress is the weak link in the collective challenge to the BJP and in the 200-odd seats it contests directly against the saffron brigade, its winning rate is dismal. The BJP has so far in the past two Parliamentary elections won 90% of these seats.
Therefore, the entire seat sharing formula has to be pragmatic, but it certainly does not mean that in the seats where the Congress and the BJP are pitted against each other, the allies can suddenly come in and emerge victorious, since they have hardly any presence there. This is also applicable to the Congress which should make its demands, keeping in view its chances and its poor strike rate.
There are reports that in Bihar, for instance, the RJD and JD(U) are wishing to contest on 17 seats each, leaving merely five or six to the Congress. The Congress nominees can only win if the two regional parties put their weight behind them. But the JD(U) claim of 17 seats is exaggerated, since the last time, its nominees won essentially because of the BJP with whom the party had an electoral pact. The JD(U) candidates contested with Narendra Modi’s pictures on their posters.
Now with the alliance with the BJP not being there, a big question mark over the winnability of the JD(U) nominees also remains. If it was the BJP last time, it would obviously be the RJD support which would help this time.
In Uttar Pradesh, Samajwadi Party is reluctant to give Congress more than two seats—Rae Bareli and Amethi—while the grand old party has demanded more than 20. The argument is that the Congress vote share is negligible in the state and even in Rae Bareli and Amethi, it would not be in the fight, unless the allies put their weight behind its nominees. There have been reports that Mayawati and the BSP may join the India bloc closer to the elections. Earlier Congress claimed that the BSP would support its nominee from Rae Bareli. However, the BSP role in the polls is so far undefined, and even if it enters the fray, to defeat the BJP in UP would be extremely difficult.
The West Bengal Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee who is fighting an internal battle with her nephew Abhishek Banerjee over his insistence of replacing the old guard with new faces, is unwilling to give more than two seats to the Congress. Adhir Ranjan Chowdhury, the Congress leader in the Lok Sabha has hit out at Didi, accusing her of adopting a non-cooperative attitude. One thing is clear that Mamata may not give any seat to the Left parties, thus in West Bengal, there was certainly going to be a multi-cornered contest, which could provide an advantage to the BJP.
The Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) is playing hard ball with the Congress in Punjab and Delhi. In the back channel talks, the AAP is unwilling to give more than one seat in Delhi and two seats in Punjab, while it is prepared to allow the Congress to contest the lone Chandigarh seat. The Congress has 8 sitting Lok Sabha MPs in Punjab, and in Delhi, in 2019, its nominees were second in five out of seven constituencies.
In order to make things more difficult for any tie-up, the AAP has made matters difficult for the Congress leadership by repeatedly acting against Congress activists and representatives in Punjab. Recently after the Court granted bail to Sukhpal Singh Khaira in a drugs related case, the state government immediately arrested him in another matter, thereby inviting protests from Congress leaders.
The Congress is going to accept what it gets in Tamil Nadu, where its nominees would be winning only if the DMK supports the party. The Congress is confident of improving its prospects both in Telangana and Andhra Pradesh besides Karnataka and Kerala.
In Maharashtra, hard bargaining is going on with the Shiv Sena on one side and the NCP on the other. The general belief is that if the seat sharing can be amicably done in the state, the BJP would find it difficult to reach double digits. It all would depend on how things unfold ultimately. While all this hobnobbing with the regional parties is happening, the Congress has to itself have a clear-cut strategy for its own benefit, which needs to be directly supervised by Mallikarjun Kharge and other senior leaders, and not by those who surround Rahul Gandhi and have little experience of realpolitik.
To begin with, Rahul should be respectful towards his seniors, and if political grapevine is to be believed, in the last I.N.D.I.A meeting, he kept addressing the party president as Kharge and not Khargeji. The Gandhis have always been particular about their unique lineage, and therefore it is hard to imagine that he would be impolite with his party chief.
However, the short point is that the Congress has to tread the next few months very carefully and not allow itself to be the weakest link in the India bloc. It has no choice but to carry everyone despite the difficulties. Between us.