The Shiv Sena, NCP and the Congress make for strange bedfellows. Yet, a common agenda that boils down to one salient point: keeping the BJP out, has brought them together. Here is a sneak peek at how this alliance came together.
GAMES PAWAR PLAYS: The Maharashtra tangle has had its moments, but if you ask me, what has been the most interesting has been Sharad Pawar’s power play. Some could argue it is he who prompted Shiv Sena’s break with the BJP by promising support but when Aaditya Thackeray went to the Raj Bhavan on 11 November the NCP had not yet given its letter of support. Neither had the Congress and the latter was vilified by the secular camp for standing in the way of an “anti-BJP” government. But Pawar’s role went largely below the radar. Why did Pawar delay his letter of support to the Sena? His party leaders point out that a letter cannot be handed out without first negotiating the power sharing. And therein lies the answer. Knowing that Uddhav was now in a corner having cut ties with the BJP, the NCP knew it had the upper hand in bargaining for berths. There was even speculation that Pawar could join the BJP, but in all fairness, the shrewd Maratha knew he had more bargaining power with a cornered Sena than an Amit Shah-led BJP. Hence, all he did was rearrange the chess pieces before he made his move.
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CONGRESS STRATEGY: As we all know, initially Sonia Gandhi was not keen on allying with the Shiv Sena. She differed with the Sena on ideology and was reportedly upset that the Congress MLAs from Maharashtra were pushing not just to support a Sena-led government but even wanted to be a part of it. According to a party leader, Sonia was wary of the short term advantages vis-a-vis the long term implications of allying with a hard core Hindu hard-line party. But she was reminded of the fact that before the state polls, the BJP had broken away as many as 32 Congress legislators and party leaders. “You know the BJP’s game plan is of a Congress mukt Bharat. If there is no party left then of what use is the ideology?” pointed out a senior leader from Maharashtra. And that is what swung Sonia’s support. But Rahul Gandhi seemed more adamant, voicing his apprehensions till the end. Interestingly, both Sanjay Nirupam and Milind Deora, who may not see eye to eye on many issues, are also said to be not too keen on tying up with the Sena. But in the end, it was the party MLAs, including Prithviraj Chavan and Ashok Chavan, that prevailed.
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WHAT DOES SENA GAIN BY TURNING “SECULAR”? By breaking with the BJP and tying up with the other camp, the Shiv Sena knows that it will have to put some of its hardcore Hindutva issues on the back burner. Yet Uddhav Thackeray chose to break with the BJP in the short term gain of attaining the Chief Minister’s post. Why is he in such a hurry? One reason is that he realised that being a junior partner to the BJP was only eating into the Sena’s vote base. If he did not act now then it would be further eradicated. Uddhav Thackeray was also sharp enough to spot the vacuum on the other side. The “Opposition to the BJP” space is empty. The Congress is confused and without a leader, while the NCP is a one-man party banking solely on the 79-year-old Sharad Pawar. The Sena, on the other hand, has not just Uddhav but a resurgent heir apparent in Aaditya Thackeray. If the Sena has to remain relevant in state politics, it needed a new identity than just the B Team of the BJP. This is what prompted Uddhav to break with the BJP and flirt with the other side, because that is where he sees the Sena’s future.
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BJP GAME PLAN: Why did Amit Shah, the master negotiator not visit Matoshree and meet the sulking Thackerays to save the alliance. For no one owns the negotiating table better than Shah and he would have eventually managed to save the alliance. Was it just ego? Or is there a larger game plan at play here? Local BJP leaders are also working to “break” the Sena and the Congress to muster up the numbers, but Shah has not yet shown his hand. From all accounts he is okay to let the unnatural alliance between the Sena, Congress and NCP play itself out and fall on its own contradictions. This has also freed up the Hindutva space occupied by the Sena in urban centres of Mumbai, Pune and other metros for there is no way the Congress will agree to some of the Sena’s poll promises such as a Bharat Ratna for Veer Savarkar. And if and when (or if you look at it from the BJP’s point of view) there is a midterm poll Shah is hopeful of forming the government on the BJP’s own majority. Of course there is an added side plot at play, for the fate of former Chief Minister Devendra Fadnavis hangs in the balance. Shah left the negotiating with the Sena to Fadnavis who was not very successful. Will the BJP keep him on as its CM candidate or bring in a Maratha face? According to BJP sources the slogan of Devendra-Narendra in the state polls (Fadnavis as CM and Modi as PM) did not go down well with the party’s power centre in New Delhi. Games within games, as they say.