Perception-wise and in reality, the Bharatiya Janata Party is far ahead of its adversaries so far as the 2024 Parliamentary elections are concerned. It has a leader in Narendra Modi, whose campaign skills are unmatched, and whose charisma has contributed in taking the saffron brigade to heights it had never seen before.
However, the party seems to be faltering as it approaches the finish line and therefore needs to do quick course correction in order to stay way ahead of others. There is no doubt that some of the best brains must be monitoring the BJP’s strategy, but what needs to be ensured is that the projected targets are met, and the narrative remains on track.
It is evident that the BJP is solely relying on the Prime Minister to carry it through this epic election which could give its government a record and successive third term. An impression which is gaining ground is that the BJP campaign has shades of the “India Shining” and “Feel Good Factor” components.
Nothing wrong with this since the party has more achievements to its credit than it had in 2004 and has a leader whose popularity and acceptability in the Sangh Parivar is far greater than that of the previous BJP stalwarts. Nevertheless, it is time when the campaigning need not be as shrill as it is, and the performance should be allowed to do the talking.
The BJP has a distinct advantage both in terms of its organization and resources, and looking at the way the Opposition is appearing to be fragmented, it appears like a one-way contest. However, in politics, nothing should ever be taken for granted, and caution should be exercised to ensure that the plan to make it succeeds without any glitches.
There are indications that the party is gripped with over confidence and its critics believe that this is bordering on arrogance which may come in the way of yielding the desired results. Certain actions taken by its leadership have no plausible explanation. For instance, the sudden change of leadership in Haryana, where the party had bagged 10 out of 10 seats last time, was least anticipated.
The state government under Manohar Lal Khattar was serving the purpose, and many senior leaders such as Anil Vij enjoyed a good reputation. But all of a sudden Khattar was replaced by Nayeb Singh Saini, and the explanation was that it was done to both reduce the anti-incumbency factor against the state government and secondly to quell a rebellion anticipated from a group of MLAs led by then deputy Chief Minister, Dushyant Singh Chautala.
Many analysts have also interpreted the changes as an exercise of managing caste equations. However, only time will tell whether the complex caste equations would enhance the party’s prospects or put some seats in jeopardy.
In Karnataka, two former Chief Ministers—Jagadish Shettar and Sadananad Gowda—are unhappy at being denied seats of their choice. Gowda, a prominent Vokkaliga face in the party has announced his retirement from active politics and the indications are that Jagadish Shettar may be forced into oblivion as well. Shettar, well known Lingayat leader after quitting as a Congress MLC and returning back to the BJP fold, had demanded Dharwad or Haveri but the two seats were allotted to Pralhad Joshi and Basavaraj Bommai respectively.
In the recent Rajya Sabha elections in Maharashtra, the BJP, which is the largest party in that state, ended up with only two seats, with one seat going to the Congress and three to former Congress leaders. This has not gone too well with the party cadres, who have been left wondering why outsiders were reaping the benefits of BJP’s dominance. There is no reason why the party is tying up with Raj Thackeray’s outfit, which does not have any electoral successes to its credit in the past.
In Delhi, where the BJP had won all the seven seats in 2019, the seat distribution has left many unhappy. Former Union Minister Harsh Vardhan has quit politics after being sidelined. There are unknown faces who are contesting in some of the constituencies, leaving those who were denied disappointed and unhappy. It is common knowledge that particularly in urban areas like Delhi, the candidate selection matters and the people want to know whether those who have been nominated to contest have served them. But the leadership presumption is that in a wave election, only the top leader counts and even lampposts can win. Even if this presumption is true, there has to be some connect that the nominees have with the citizens.
In Punjab, the alliance dialogue with the Shiromani Akali Dal is in the final stages and its outcome is unknown, with many in the Panthic party opposed to this tie-up unless the farmer issues are addressed.
In Uttar Pradesh, a question mark hangs over the two Gandhis—Maneka and Varun. In Bihar, the common belief is that the BJP would have done better had it been in the fray on its own, and the seats allotted to Nitish Kumar’s party would provide an opportunity to Lalu Prasad Yadav’s party.
The point is that the BJP is surely in the pole position and thus should not squander its advantage. So far, it has been the Congress which specializes in snatching defeat from the jaws of victory. This is a lesson the BJP need not learn from the grand old party. Therefore, it should make a course correction wherever necessary. Between us.