Multiple messages have emanated from the meeting of 17 Opposition parties convened by Bihar Chief Minister Nitish Kumar in Patna on Friday and it is evident that an anti-BJP front seems to be taking shape, ahead of the next Parliamentary elections.
Although the participants of the conclave tried to project a united stand on their collective determination to dislodge the BJP led government at the Centre, yet the task appears to be extremely difficult, given the sharp differences regional players would have with the Congress.
In fact, the regional parties which are in power in several states have a difficult choice ahead of them. While they are opposed to the BJP, which has time and again tried to undermine their authority, these parties are also wary of the Congress, whose political space they have occupied.
Their dilemma is that the Congress could at any time try and reclaim the lost space and thus make these players irrelevant. However, for that to happen, the Congress has to put its own house in order and strengthen its organizational base.
Delhi Chief Minister Arvind Kejriwal’s insistence even before the commencement of the Friday meeting that the grand old party should support the AAP in opposing the ordinance promulgated by the Centre to acquire overriding powers in the governance of the national capital, was completely unnecessary on this occasion. Kejriwal ended up throwing a spanner in the works and his absence from the press conference after the conclave indicated that he was somewhat unhappy at not getting an assurance.
The Congress has regained some of its lost ground following Rahul Gandhi’s Bharat Jodo Yatra and if it is able to energise the cadres ahead of the Parliamentary elections, it may not need many of the regional parties by its side. The AAP has served as a vote cutter in states like Gujarat, and for the view of the party high command to change regarding Kejriwal and company, who have often been described as the “B” team of the RSS, the AAP shall have to take a clear cut stand on national issues.
The Patna meeting shall be followed next month by an Opposition conclave in Shimla, which is administered by the Congress. It is evident that Mallikarjun Kharge and Rahul Gandhi would have a greater role to play there. Incidentally, the call for Opposition unity against the Vajpayee-led NDA government was also given by the then Congress president, Sonia Gandhi from Shimla, exactly 20 years ago, and led to the formation of the United Progressive Alliance subsequently.
Things have undergone a lot of changes since then and while Congress with its greater reach and larger footprint, shall have to be the pivot of any anti-BJP formation by the “secular” parties, it shall have to also safeguard its own interests in states where the regional players would demand greater say and more seats.
For instance, the survival of the Nationalist Congress Party (NCP) led by Sharad Pawar would be completely dependent on how many seats and which ones it is able to secure from the Congress as a part of the Maha Vikas Aghadi, which also includes Shiv Sena (Uddhav Thackeray). The NCP’s existence has been largely because it has been the recipient of the Congress largesse, and has managed to field its candidates in constituencies that were essentially the strongholds of the Congress.
There are leaders such as Sushil Kumar Shinde and Ashok Chavan, who would not want the Congress to allot its winning seats to the NCP under any circumstances. If that happens, it is extremely difficult for NCP to keep itself relevant in the state. In other words, the NCP without support from Congress, shall be in deep trouble. However, if the Congress goes ahead and bails it out, it shall in the process loosen its grip in some of the constituencies that may adversely affect it in the future.
Similarly, in West Bengal where Mamata Banerjee enjoys overwhelming support of the people opposed to the BJP, the presence of the Congress in a tie-up with the Left parties could impact her political status though the BJP would also suffer if that were to happen. In Delhi and Punjab, the AAP cannot be allowed to have a free run as the absence of the Congress from the electoral battle would diminish its influence in regions where it has the capacity to regain some of the lost ground and thus resuscitate itself for the future.
Nitish Kumar is keen to lead the Opposition alliance since he has very few options left. He has to make way for Tejashwi Yadav before the Lok Sabha polls and thus would find himself politically sidelined, if he ceases to be a major player in national politics. Akhilesh Yadav and his party would want the lion’s share in Uttar Pradesh, but one cannot lose sight of the fact that if those who want the BJP to be defeated there, also do not necessarily want the Samajwadi Party to occupy its political space.
There are nearly 200 seats where the BJP and the Congress shall clash head-on, and the regional parties will have to watch the outcome with restraint. There shall always be the likelihood of Kejriwal wanting to jump in, to inadvertently or deliberately help the saffron brigade.
The Congress is expected to emerge stronger after the winter Assembly polls. Therefore, the speculation that Modi could go in for an early and simultaneous Lok Sabha polls should not be prematurely dismissed. Between us.