India’s growth impacts at least one-seventh of the world’s population, if not more; any power attempting to destabilise India, therefore, is undermining global stability and must be projected as an enemy of humanity.
In his Independence Day speech, Narendra Modi assured the global community that India’s growth poses no threat to anyone. He has made similar statements before, including during a media interaction prior to the G20 summit last September. The latest assurance, delivered from the ramparts of the Red Fort, however, came in the wake of a regime change in Bangladesh, and two months after an unexpected electoral setback for the BJP. It is worth noting that in one of his pre-election media interviews, the Prime Minister mentioned foreign interference in the elections.
THE CIRCLE OF FIRE
The regime change in Bangladesh has completed the circle of fire around India, as all its neighbours are grappling with varying forms of instability. It is no secret that India supported Sheikh Hasina, and the anger against her is likely to spill over into hostility towards India, especially as the former PM is currently sheltered here. While it is common in this region to blame the “big brother”—and sometimes that blame is deserved—the people of Bangladesh should remember that the Khaleda Zia government, which preceded Sheikh Hasina’s long tenure, was “insensitive and unresponsive” to India’s security concerns, as noted in the then-UPA government’s annual report for 2004-05. They should also consider the terrible plight of minorities, especially Hindus, in the immediate aftermath of regime change—an issue that resonates emotionally with Hindu-majority India, and has political implications for India’s ruling party.
Internal stability in neighbouring countries is crucial for India, and its neighbourhood-first policy aims to ensure that its growth contributes to the well-being and development of its friendly neighbours. As long as Bangladesh does not undermine India’s security or strategic interests, either actively or passively, there is no reason why the two nations cannot continue to build on their relationship. In any case, even if the people or governments in some neighbouring countries may want India out, their geographical reality is not going to change. Also, as India perfects the art of being a “friend in need,” its role as a reliable partner becomes increasingly valuable in these uncertain times.
Given the circle of fire, hostility on borders, and overall geopolitical churn, it becomes crucial for India to navigate carefully to fulfil its 2047 vision of becoming a developed nation.
INTERNAL CHAOS
The very diversity that characterises India, acts as a crucial barrier to large-scale and nation-wide street revolutions, as no single issue resonates uniformly across the entire population. Additionally, the inability to rise above political divides means that mobilising the masses for a regime-change operation is also limited. However, it is possible to create chaos through multiple localised disturbances and protests, or to trigger large-scale communal violence, which could negatively impact India’s investment environment and growth.
It is important that a democracy empathetically addresses genuine grievances of the people, but it is equally important to not appear weak in the face of engineered disruptions, as this can embolden more groups to resort to street power. This is one area where the Modi government needs to improve. It has been dealing with protests since its first term, and yet is found less-equipped in firmly handling them, or pro-actively preventing the same. Another important aspect, as detailed in my previous article, “Small but Strategic Steps to 2047” (4 August, The Sunday Guardian), is to ensure that Indians are resilient against divisive and fake narratives, and are invested in India’s growth story.
While the Prime Minister’s assertion of internal saboteurs in his 15th August speech is noteworthy, especially in light of a threat by a prominent opposition leader that “India will burn”, it is crucial to move beyond words and take concrete action. As a nation aspiring to be a global power, India must be prepared to prevent internal sabotage through preventive measures within the bounds of the law. Merely filing cases is not enough, as it could easily be perceived as political targeting, even if it is not. There must be a focus on speedy justice to maintain public confidence and demonstrate genuine commitment to addressing threats.
WITH OR AGAINST U.S.?
The regime change in Bangladesh has reintroduced American machinations into Indian public and media discourse. While the US vehemently denies any involvement in the events in India’s neighbourhood, the outcome has undeniably worked in favour of the US, with a person widely perceived as close to America now installed in power. From India’s perspective, this is not necessarily negative; as India might face some hostility for its association with the ousted government, it is arguably better to engage with someone close to America than with China.
At this juncture, it is crucial for the US to recognise that a weakened India does not serve regional security or the US’ strategic interests in the Indo-Pacific. By respecting India’s significant role and avoiding actions that might directly or indirectly undermine it, the US has the chance to build the trust necessary for a strong and mutually beneficial partnership—one that could prove pivotal in the 21st century.
The US has cultivated a global narrative of being principles-driven, but it is viewed sceptically, particularly by India, where lived experience has been markedly different. For example, during the 1971 Bangladesh liberation, the US aligned with the military regime of West Pakistan in order to get close to China, and ignored the genocide of Hindu minority in East Pakistan. In the following years, the US continued to support Pakistan despite it sponsoring terror attacks in India. Consequently, US calls for human or minority rights seem disingenuous to India, which does not see the US as morally superior.
Historically, the US has supported the worst dictators in pursuit of its strategic interests. India, despite its imperfections, is the world’s largest democracy, and despite its multi-alignment preference, represents a far more stable and promising ally. Indians have demonstrated their capacity to resolve democratic conflicts independently; they successfully overthrew the Emergency regime of Indira Gandhi, relying neither on foreign help nor global rankings. India does not need a saviour in the form of the United States; it needs an all-weather, trustworthy strategic partner. Given that the US has previously harmed India’s interests and will depend on India in the foreseeable future in the Indo-Pacific, it is incumbent upon the US to build and sustain trust. No democracy is perfect and no nation is entirely principles-driven in its foreign policy. It is time to drop the pretence of shared democratic values and principles. Our interests align, and the security and stability of the Indo-Pacific are too crucial to be jeopardised by secondary concerns, such as the US’ saviour complex and control freak tendencies, as well as India’s historical grievances and stubborn refusal to follow the US line. As previously noted, the US has overlooked the worst evils to pursue its interests. India asks for far less than what the US has conceded to other nations, including two of India’s hostile neighbours. The US must respect India’s red lines: do not interfere in internal affairs, do not harm its strategic interests in its neighbourhood, and do not harbour wanted terrorists.
If I were to phrase it in terms that Eric Garcetti, the US Ambassador to India, might appreciate, India and the US do not have the luxury of swiping left. The time for games is over.
CONCLUSION
India is not merely a nation; it is an ancient civilisation whose rise will benefit the entire world. It is too large to bleed to death by a thousand cuts, too diverse to be brought down by revolutions, and too resilient, having withstood centuries of change, to fulfil the wishes of its obit writers.
It makes no sense to obstruct a rising tide; it is far more advantageous to harness its energy for mutual benefit. However, if this simple logic is difficult for some external powers to grasp, it is time for India to take a page from the playbook of global powers and shape its own narrative. India’s growth impacts at least one-seventh of the world’s population, if not more; any power attempting to destabilise India, therefore, is undermining global stability and must be projected as an enemy of humanity. While India may not have the same resources as some global powers, it boasts a vast diaspora excelling in politics, government administration, and business worldwide. It is crucial to strategically leverage this resource.
India has been a good-faith actor for so long that it no longer needs to keep reassuring the world of its intentions. A peaceful rise is ideal and what India genuinely aspires for, but if the world is not prepared for that, India must make it clear that it will not sacrifice its growth and ambitions and is prepared to do what it takes to achieve its 2047 vision.
Semu Bhatt is a strategic adviser, analyst, and author.