Even though the Prime Minister kick-started the campaign for the Bharatiya Janata Party on Friday by accusing Arvind Kejriwal of running a disastrous regime in the capital, there appears to be a farcical dimension to the Delhi Assembly polls.
It is evident that the elections would not change the way things are in Delhi so far as the system goes, since the Centre shall continue to have overriding powers over any elected government, given the Constitution provides these powers. In other words, even if the Aam Aadmi Party were to return in the city, it shall have to play second fiddle to the Lieutenant Governor in most matters and shall have little say in the scheme of things.
The BJP is in a win-win situation right from the beginning. If it is victorious and manages to wrest control of the government, it shall have no worries since the party also controls the Centre. And in case the AAP achieves a hat-trick, the BJP shall still call the shots because of it being in power at the Centre.
The Constitution also has made it clear that both law and order, police and land use were not going to be part of any government that gets elected in the capital. And after the Supreme Court rulings on many other issues, it is evident that the Centre shall have complete domination over the affairs of the city through the office of the Lt Governor.
The Assembly would in fact be merely a debating chamber to score political brownie points, and the elections would at best test the popularity of the BJP, which has failed to win even once in Delhi after Madan Lal Khurana brought it to power in the critical 1993 Assembly polls. The closest it got to forming the government was in 2013, when the BJP secured 32 seats, four more than those of AAP, with the Congress getting only 8 seats.
The saffron brigade would have formed the government since there were at least six Congress legislators who were willing to support it, if first Ramvir Singh Bidhuri, and subsequently Jagdish Mukhi were made the Chief Ministers. However, the late Arun Jaitley, for reasons best known to him, never allowed this to happen and Kejriwal formed a short-lived government with the support of the Congress, which was perhaps amongst the worst decisions of the grand old party.
The Congress has, since then, not been able to win even a single seat in the polls and is this time hoping to make some sort of a comeback, though the contest is likely to be between the AAP and the BJP. The polls would be announced shortly because it is speculated that they shall be held while Rajiv Kumar is still the Chief Election Commissioner. Kumar’s tenure ends by end February.
Prime Minister Narendra Modi had hit out at Arvind Kejriwal to set the tone for the confrontation. However, Kejriwal too, while responding to the PM’s comment about his Sheesh Mahal, retaliated and questioned him over the massive amounts of money spent on his residence, and the airplane he travels in. The war of words did not involve the Congress, whom, both parties consider to be a peripheral player in this contest.
On its part, the Congress has been trying to make its presence felt by attacking Kejriwal primarily since it is conscious that its original vote bank in the city has over the years been hijacked by the AAP. The Congress is hoping that it shall be able to revive itself to some degree, particularly in areas where the minority vote matters.
The downside of this belief is that the Congress has no organizational network and most of its candidates are merely holding press conferences instead of being visible on the field. The distribution of tickets has left many loyalists disappointed since those who joined the party from the AAP have been preferred in certain key constituencies.
The fact is that there is a lot of resentment, and even if the Congress list may feature some who can put up a fight, overall, the perception is that it shall not come to power. The Congress fight is for restoring its pride. Surprisingly, the Congress has not opened up a front against the BJP, which in any case with a minimum of 32 per cent votes under its belt is in the fight as the primary challenger.
What is difficult to comprehend is that the BJP has been late in announcing its list though the names of some of its nominees are known. This could be because of strategic reasons also. The BJP understands that in order to dislodge the AAP, it shall have to cut into its Poorvanchali vote bank. Therefore, it is possible that a Poorvanchali may be projected as the CM face. In this context, the name of Manoj Tiwari, Lok Sabha MP is doing the rounds. However, if Manoj Tiwari were to be elected to the Assembly, he may have to give up his Parliament seat, which is difficult, since the party has only 240 MPs at present, and would not wish to lose a seat.
There is also speculation that some of the former MPs who were denied the nomination in May, may be asked to contest. Therefore, there is every possibility that besides Parvesh Verma, Meenakshi Lekhi and Ramesh Bidhuri may also be fighting the polls. Delhi elections are always high profile, and this time would be no different with all the fireworks. Between us.