By showing no sympathy for Israeli women, elderly and children slaughtered by Hamas terrorists and openly supporting the Palestinian ‘cause’, the Congress could have displayed an Achilles Heel to the BJP.
Since media attention is right now focused on the dust, noise and fury over the Assembly elections to five states, the significance of the op-ed written by Sonia Gandhi in a newspaper has been missed by many seasoned analysts. Congress supporters don’t seem bothered, enthused and bolstered as they are by polls indicating their party possibly winning Chhattisgarh, Madhya Pradesh and Telangana. What Sonia Gandhi has written will arguably have no impact on the Assembly elections. But they could have a huge impact when Lok Sabha elections come calling in about five months. The authors think Sonia Gandhi has unwittingly handed a strategic weapon to Prime Minister Narendra Modi which he and his team will use ruthlessly in the Lok Sabha campaign. In all probability, PM Modi will thunder in the rallies that he addresses that the Congress supports terrorism and stands with terrorists.
How so? In the op-ed, she writes: “Humanity is on trial now. We were collectively diminished by the brutal attacks on Israel. We are now all diminished by Israel’s disproportionate and equally brutal response. How many more lives will have to be taken before our collective conscience is stirred and awakened?” Discerning analysts would have noted that this is the only instance where a senior Congress leader has even bothered to mention Israeli victims after 7 October 2023 when Hamas terrorists gang-raped young girls, butchered entire families in cold blood, slaughtered babies and filmed and celebrated this barbarism. Soon after this terror attack, the Congress general secretary in charge of communications issued a perfunctory statement: “The Indian National Congress condemns the brutal attacks on the people of Israel.” Two days after that when the Israeli Defense Forces started bombing suspected Hamas hideouts in Gaza, the Congress Working Committee issued a blanket support for the Palestinian cause: “CWC expresses its dismay and anguish on the war that has broken out in the Middle East where over a thousand people have been killed in the last two days. The CWC reiterates its long-standing support for the rights of the Palestinian people to land, self-government and to live with dignity and respect…The CWC calls for an immediate cease-fire and for negotiations to begin on all outstanding issues including the imperative issues that have given rise to the present conflict.” Sonia Gandhi and the Congress have also publicly condemned Narendra Modi after India abstained from a UN resolution calling for an immediate ceasefire and urgent humanitarian aid to people in Gaza. Liberals and intellectuals joined the “we condemn” bandwagon, of course.
The authors don’t intend to debate the nuances of Indian foreign policy here. Of more interest is what possible impact it could have on voters in the run-up to the 2024 Lok Sabha elections. The primary aim of the Congress and its I.N.D.I.A partners is to dislodge the BJP-led NDA government in the 2024 elections. Now let’s look at best case scenarios for I.N.D.I.A. Let’s assume I.N.D.I.A constituents win 30 out of 42 seats in Bengal, 39 out of 39 seats in Tamil Nadu, 20 out 20 in Kerala, 30 out of 48 in Maharashtra and 25 out of 40 in Bihar. That works out to 144 seats. I.N.D.I.A has to win another 130 odd seats to be able to cobble up a majority. For these seats, all the heavy hitting has to be done by the Congress in direct face-offs with the BJP. It is also important to note that while TMC in Bengal and I.N.D.I.A are expected to do better than in 2019, winning so many seats in Bengal, Bihar and Maharashtra appears a tad far-fetched. Realistically, the tally could 125, instead of the best case 144. In such an event, the Congress has to do exceedingly well in the states where it has been trounced twice by the BJP in 2014 and 2019. They are: Karnataka, Gujarat, Jharkhand, Chhattisgarh, Uttarakhand, Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, Delhi, Haryana and Himachal. In all these states, the Congress had managed to win about 6 seats in all. It needs to take that tally to about 130.
Given the scale of this challenge, the authors think that Sonia Gandhi and the Congress could have conceded a suicidal goal by coming out so openly in support of Palestine in the ongoing war with Israel. The party also describes Hamas terrorists as “militants” in its official communications.
Just look at the chart with this piece. The smallest vote share gap between the BJP and Congress is 10% in Chhattisgarh. In most states, it is above 20% and is a staggering 42%. How does Congress climb this mountain? Even a school student can tell you the only option is for the Congress to edge this vote share gap to single digits. Now, look at another fact. The Muslim vote in all these states went to the Congress; or its ally JMM in Jharkhand. The same would happen in 2024 even if the Congress had not openly sided with Palestine. What about the Hindu voter? A recent survey conducted by CVoter on the Israel-Palestine conflict revealed something interesting. While 4 out of 10 respondents identifying as opposition voters said the Congress stand was a principled one, a higher 42% were of the opinion that this was merely to woo Muslim voters. Imagine: even your supporters think you are chasing Muslim votes. In the same survey, a significant proportion were supportive of a separate state for Palestine; but were overwhelmingly against terrorism. In a previous column, the authors had quoted another CVoter survey on India-Canada elations had revealed Indians were angry with Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau for “supporting” Khalistani extremism and terrorism. On the issue of terrorism, polarisation between BJP and Congress supporters shrink significantly. In yet another CVoter survey on treatment meted out to the Pakistan cricket team, Indians cited Pakistan state support for terrorism as the reason they booed the players. Indians are in no mood to mollycoddle or justify terrorism of any kind, having suffered so grievously the numerous terror attacks over the last four decades.
By showing no sympathy for Israeli women, elderly and children slaughtered by Hamas terrorists and openly supporting the Palestinian “cause”, the Congress could have displayed an Achilles Heel to the BJP. There is little doubt that Narendra Modi will rhetorically accuse the Congress of “standing with” terrorists and those who “hate Hindus”. It doesn’t matter if the changes are true or not. And remember, Palestine is not the only issue. The Left and Congress have refused to condemn the event where a senior Hamas leader virtually addressed a rally in Kerala against Zionism and Hindutva. Then there are the bizarre remarks against Sanatan Dharma by top DMK leaders, with Congress keeping quiet. Then there is Karnataka where the Congress is glorifying Tipu Sultan and encouraging Muslim girl students to wear the hijab.
Do you think all this will persuade Hindu voters in the states mentioned above to switch their support to the Congress in 2024? It doesn’t matter what the authors think. But they have an inkling of what voters are thinking.
Yashwant Deshmukh is Founder & Editor in Chief of CVoter Foundation and Sutanu Guru is Executive Director.