Seen in a broader geopolitical perspective, Trump 1.0 administration’s policies towards South Asia and the Indo-Pacific region were by and large in keeping with the national interests of India.
Trump’s return to the White House after a four-year interregnum threatens to upend international political, economic and strategic landscape to a much larger degree than what happened during the first term of Donald Trump as the American President.
In an interdependent world, what the sole superpower does affects all regions of the world to varying degrees. Trump’s tough stand on China, launching an economic cold war against China’s trade practices, revival of the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue among the US, India, Japan and Australia, strong stand against Pakistan-sponsored terrorist activities coincided with robust growth in US-India defence and security cooperation. Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s summit meeting with President Donald Trump in the United States and “Howdy Modi” rally in Houston and reciprocal visit of President Trump to India and a “Namaste Trump” rally in Ahmedabad symbolized greater affinity between the oldest and the largest democracies in the world. Differences over trade, tariff and investment issues remained but failed to derail the US-India strategic partnership strenuously built since the early years of the 21st century.
Seen in a broader geopolitical perspective, Trump 1.0 administration’s policies towards South Asia and the Indo-Pacific region were by and large in keeping with the national interests of India. Can India expect the same scenario to take hold during Trump2.0 administration? First of all, Indian foreign minister S. Jaishankar’s attendance in the Inaugural event of Trump and the symbolism reflected in the seating arrangement have send positive signals to continuation of positive ties between India and the United States.
Secondly, meeting of Quad Foreign Ministers hours after the Presidential Inauguration has signalled that President Trump will continue to give priority to developments in the Indo-Pacific region to ensure that no single country takes unilateral measures to alter the geopolitical status quo in the region to the detriment of the interests of other countries and play a proactive role in ensuring freedom of navigation and uninterrupted trade and commerce in the region. The joint statement reiterated the shared commitments of the Quad member countries to uphold the “rule of law, democratic values, sovereignty and territorial integrity” in the Indo-Pacific and cautioned against changing the status quo by “coercive means.”
Third, Indian industrialist Mukesh Ambani not only attended the pre-inauguration ceremony and the Church Service at St. John’s of President Trump but also had the opportunity to be in a meeting between the US President and the industrialists from various countries. This meeting was crucial to build cooperative ties with the US administration in view of the fact that US’ foreign economic engagements and sanctions policies affect commercial activities of countries. Kalpesh Mehta, founder of Tribeca Developers and licensed Indian Partner for Trump Towers, and Pankaj Bansal, Managing Director of M3M Developers, which is a major collaborator in construction of Trump Towers in India, also attended the meeting. Coincidentally, the Hindenburg Research that alleged the Adani Group of Companies of corruption announced its shutdown days before Trump’s inauguration. Around the same time, Breon Peace, the US Attorney for the Eastern District of New York who had led the indictment against Gautam Adani announced his resignation. These events indicate that industrial cooperation between India and the US may have better days ahead. Significantly, following Trump’s victory in the presidential election, Gautam Adani announced plans to invest $10 billion in US energy and infrastructure projects, which would create about 15,000 jobs.
Fourth, there is clear possibility of further expanding the depth and breadth of defence cooperation between India and the United States. Both the current Indian Prime Minister and the current US President will be at the helm of affairs for next four years and implementation of the agreed upon collaborative programmes and initiations of new joint projects can thus be expected. As President Trump aspires to make America Great Again and Prime Minister Modi works towards making India a developed country by 2047, the opportunity to collaborate with the US for next four years to realise the leaders’ goals can be easily leveraged.
Fifth, President Trump has vowed to deport illegal immigrants from the United States. But then India should have little problem with the issue of illegal immigrants. As far as his proposal on citizenship criteria is concerned, India has little to be concerned about, as it is an issue to be decided by the American government and people. But what India and the US need to work together is to exchange notes on the issue of H1B visa and to ensure that Indian holders of that visa are not discriminated against. In fact, all the misinformation about the Indian professionals working in the US under various categories under the H1B visa scheme has to be cleared. The relevant officials of the Trump Administration need to be sensitized that Indian professionals do not replace US jobs and complement the job requirements in that country. The Indian companies, moreover, have created tens of thousands of jobs in the US, besides contributing a great deal to American economic growth.
Unlike China, India is neither a rival of the United States nor a strategic competitor. Unlike Pakistan, India harbours no terrorist networks that can pose a threat to the US or its interests abroad. On the contrary, there are declared anti-India terrorists and separatists who live in the US and threaten Indians and target Indian assets. They seem to be hand in glove with a few anti-India countries as well. Indian government should hold serious dialogues with the Trump Administration at the appropriate level to deal with this issue.
The EU is an economic challenge; Russia is a military challenge and China is a strategic challenge to the United States. India is truly an opportunity for the United States. The United States likewise presents enormous prospects for India to realise its goals for becoming an advanced country. Despite the anxiety over Trump’s policy approaches in many parts of the world, India appears confident about leveraging the potential prospects in the US and seems prepared to sort out the challenging areas of differences. For instance, India may not support the US sanctions policies; India stays away from containment strategies; India is determined to keep its strategic partnership with Russia; and, above all, India will preserve its policy of “strategic autonomy.”
* Chintamani Mahapatra is Editor, India Quarterly and Founder Chairperson, KIIPS.