The last decade has witnessed a remarkable growth in India’s relations with the United States, West Asia (particularly the UAE), Japan, Australia, Europe, South East Asia and other countries/regions.
The foreign policy pursued by Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s government over the last ten years has been an unqualified success. This has been possible in a large measure due to the rapid growth registered by the Indian economy over this period. From a position of being one of the “fragile five” and the 11th largest economy in the world, India is today the fifth largest economy, well on its way to becoming the third largest economy over the next few years. It is the fastest growing major economy in the world with a GDP growth of 8.2% in the last fiscal year. Its contribution to global growth has increased significantly and it has emerged as a ray of hope in an otherwise gloomy outlook for the global economy. Its enhanced GDP has significantly expanded India’s capacity to play a more significant and active role in global affairs.
The last decade has witnessed a remarkable growth in India’s relations with the United States, West Asia (particularly the UAE), Japan, Australia, Europe, South East Asia and other countries/regions. India has maintained cordial relations with Russia notwithstanding the inordinate pressure from the West to criticise Russia for its attack on Ukraine and to stop purchasing discounted oil from Russia. As in the case of Russia, India maintained its strategic autonomy by signing a 10-year development and maintenance agreement with Iran for the Chabahar project. India’s standing in the world increased significantly when it successfully organised the G-20 Summit and managed to produce a consensus New Delhi Leaders’ Declaration on the first day of the Summit against the predictions of all the naysayers who were convinced that the G-20 Presidency would spell India’s Waterloo. The two “Voice of Global South Summits” organised by India, one before and one after the Summit, as well as induction of the African Union as the 21st member of the G-20, hugely enhanced India’s stature among the world, particularly among the large majority of the Global South.
With the re-appointment of Dr S. Jaishankar as the External Affairs Minister, Prime Minister Modi has clearly declared that the assertive and principled foreign policy of India will continue in his third term over the next five years. In his brief remarks to the media after taking over as EAM, Dr Jaishankar stated that India’s foreign policy will be guided by the maxims of “Bharat First” and “Vasudhaiva Kutumbakam” (the World is a Family). This is a subtle assertion that while India will continue to work steadfastly to promote Bharat’s interests in political, security, economic, technological and cultural spheres, it will also be equally mindful of its global responsibilities, particularly with respect to safeguarding and promoting the interests and concerns of the Global South. Dr Jaishankar clearly stated that India is committed to advancing its role as a “Vishwabandhu” by maintaining mutually beneficial and cordial relations with the world.
The invitation by PM Modi to the leaders of seven neighbouring and Indian Ocean countries to his cabinet’s swearing in ceremony sent out a strong message that India will stay committed to its “Neighbourhood First” policy, which was enunciated by him at the beginning of his first tenure in 2014. This Policy has yielded rich dividends over the last ten years, notwithstanding the growing Chinese assertiveness and encroachment in India’s neighbourhood over this period. Challenges remain but India appears to be well poised to maintain and expand ties with most of its neighbours. Invitations to the leaders of Bangladesh, Bhutan, Nepal and Sri Lanka (as also Mauritius) were extended for the oath taking ceremonies in 2014 as well as in 2019. Invitations in 2014 were extended to SAARC (South Asian Association of Regional Cooperation) countries, while in 2019 to BIMSTEC (Bay of Bengal Initiative for Multi-Sectoral Technical and Economic Cooperation) states.
Invitation to the President of Maldives this year came as somewhat of a surprise as the Maldivian President Muizzu came to power in November, 2023 on an “India Out” campaign and has worked steadfastly over the last six months to move Maldives out of the orbit of India and come closer to China particularly in the fields of defence and trade. Invitation to Muizzu sent out a clear message that India, as the much larger and more powerful country, is willing to be generous and magnanimous in dealing with its smaller neighbours. Going forward, India will have to keep a close watch over the policies pursued by Maldives. Notwithstanding the unfriendly attitude displayed by Muizzu and his government so far, India has not allowed it to colour its responses and has continued to extend all types of financial and economic support. It might however become necessary to adopt a carrot and stick approach if Muizzu and his establishment don’t change course and become mindful of India’s security concerns and core sensitivities.
PM Modi invited leaders of Seychelles and Mauritius on account of our growing interest to maintain peace, security and stability in the Indo-Pacific region, particularly the Indian Ocean. This has been necessitated particularly by the growing presence of China in the Indian Ocean indicated by the increasing movement of Chinese ships in the region and its permanent presence in several ports like Djibouti, Gwadar, Hambantota, Kyaukphyu (in Myanmar) and possibly, in Maldives in the coming years. Mauritius has been a constant invitee to all earlier such occasions because of the presence of a large Indian diaspora in Mauritius and close historical, civilizational and people to people connect between the two countries.
Considerable commentary and discussion has taken place on reasons for not sending invitations to two other neighbours viz. Pakistan and China. While Pakistan was invited in 2014, it was not invited in 2019 because Pakistan is not a member of BIMSTEC, whose members were invited in 2019, but more importantly, because of its support to cross-border terrorism against India and India’s clear stand that terrorism and talks will not go together. After the Pulwama attack in February, 2019 and the subsequent Balakot strike on terrorist hideouts in Pakistan, relations between the two countries have gone into a deep freeze. Ambassadors of the two countries were withdrawn after India abrogated Article 370 in August 2019. Under the prevailing circumstances, there was no possibility of Pakistan being invited to this event. It would appear that to make its presence felt, the Pakistan deep state orchestrated a terrorist attack through one of its proxies, The Resistance Front (TRF), an offshoot of the Pakistan supported terrorist group Lashkar-e-Taiba, on a bus carrying pilgrims in Jammu region on the eve of the oath taking ceremony. Nine people were killed and several injured.
China was not invited either in 2014 or in 2019 as it is neither a member of the SAARC or BIMSTEC. It is clear that any Chinese presence would have become the focus of attention at the event, the purpose of which was to keep the limelight on PM Modi and his cabinet. In any case, with the state of current relations between the two countries as they are, particularly after the Galwan conflict in June, 2020 and the presence of 50,000 troops each from the two sides facing each other at the Line of Action Control, there was no possibility of having any senior Chinese presence at the event.
In addition to continuing the focus on strengthening relations with the neighbourhood, managing relations with China will continue to be the most formidable challenge for India in the coming years. In response to a message from the Chinese foreign office spokesperson on PM Modi’s victory in the parliamentary election, India said that it looks forward to normalizing bilateral relations on the basis of “mutual respect, mutual interest and mutual sensitivity.” India has made it clear to China that normal business and economic relations cannot be restored unless status quo ante is restored and there is peace and tranquillity at the border. It would behove upon China to make the first move as it was the one that violated the Confidence Building Measure Agreements of 1993 and 1996. However, looking at the stark power imbalance, it appears unlikely that China is in a hurry to make the first move. Under these circumstances, India will need to stand firm, develop its economic strength, expand its military preparedness, bolster its infrastructure on the border, and continue to expand and deepen its partnership with friendly countries like the US, Japan, Australia, Europe, South East Asia, the Quad, the Indo Pacific and others.
PM Modi has hit the ground running when he embarked on a one-day visit on 14 June to Italy to participate in the G-7 Meeting. He got an opportunity to interact with the leadership from the US, Japan, France, UK, Germany and others and discuss ways on dealing with the ongoing conflicts in Ukraine and Gaza, as also to take bilateral partnership with these countries forward. Without being a formal member of the G-7, India has emerged as a permanent invitee to its summits, having been invited to all of them over the last six years starting 2019 in France.
The subsequent weeks and months will also witness engagements in Astana, Kazakhstan in early July for the SCO (Shanghai Cooperation Organization) Summit, and in October for the BRICS Summit in Kazan, Russia. Both these events will provide opportunities to PM Modi and President Putin to meet and put the bilateral relations on a more stable keel. This will be the first time that the two leaders will meet in person after their last meeting in Samarkand, Uzbekistan in September, 2022 on the sidelines of the SCO Summit.
Chinese President Xi Jinping will also be present at both the SCO and BRICS Summits. This could provide an opportunity to the two leaders to thaw the freeze in their bilateral ties which have persisted since 2020. The two leaders last met when Xi visited India in October, 2019 for the second informal Summit in Mamallapuram after their Wuhan get-together in April, 2018.
In the middle of this month in Switzerland, the international peace summit on the Russo-Ukraine conflict was held. India was represented by a senior official, Secretary (West) from the Ministry of External Affairs. India however refused to subscribe to the Final Declaration maintaining that no peace was possible without the presence and involvement of Russia. India reiterated that dialogue and diplomacy is the only path forward.
In addition to taking forward the initiatives like the IMEEC (India- Middle East Europe Economic Corridor), I2U2 (India, Israel, UAE, USA), IPEF (Indo-Pacific Economic Framework for Prosperity), ICET (Initiative on Critical and Emergent Technology) etc. that India has partnered in recent years, it is imperative for India to double down on the pending negotiations on the India-EU FTA (Free Trade Agreement), India-UK FTA, FTA with the GCC (Gulf Cooperation Council) and others. An expeditious resolution of the long pending obstacles in the completion of these Agreements will send out a strong and clear signal about India’s intent to become an active stake-holder in the global economic architecture.
As has been observed, economic strength and growth has an important role to play in a vigorous and effective foreign policy. India should hence give priority to putting in place policies to increase the share of its manufacturing, developing technology, promoting social, physical and digital infrastructure, enhancing exports etc.
The coming months will also need to be utilized to arrange the Africa Forum, which is long overdue, as also the in-person India-Central Asia Summit which has become due this year. India’s ties with Africa as well as Central Asia have suffered somewhat due to lack of attention over the last two years. But it is not a decline that cannot be arrested.
It is unlikely that the Quad Summit will take place in India before the US elections in November, 2024. It however needs to be ensured that the momentum on this account does not dissipate.
The world is undergoing rapid changes. There is growing uncertainty. In this period of rapid flux and change, there are both challenges and opportunities. India’s track record over the last ten years, particularly over the last five years, imbues the country with the hope and confidence that India will be able to successfully confront the emerging challenges and take maximum advantage of the opportunities, to advance India to occupy its rightful place in the comity of nations in the very near future.
Former Ambassador of India to Kazakhstan, Sweden and Latvia, Ashok Sajjahar is Executive Council Member, Manohar Parrikar Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses; President, Institute of Global Studies; Distinguished Fellow, Ananta Aspen Centre. He is also former Secretary/Principal Executive Officer, National Foundation for Communal Harmony, Government of India.