between us
By declaring Vijayendra Yediyurappa as the president of the Karnataka unit in place of Nalin Kateel, the Bharatiya Janata Party’s central leadership has attempted to play safe by endorsing the dynastic option rather than going with somebody new.
Vijayendra’s appointment has obviously been done to placate former Chief Minister, B.S. Yediyurappa, the party’s tallest Lingayat leader, and to ensure that in the forthcoming Parliamentary polls, the dominant community returns back to the party fold. In 2019, the BJP had won 25 out of 28 Lok Sabha seats in the southern state and it is important that to enable Narendra Modi to have a third term, the BJP maximizes its efforts there.
However, by backing Vijayendra for the position, the central leadership may have ruffled a few feathers since he is a first time MLA, whom many believe to be the person responsible for whatever went wrong when his father was the Chief Minister. His appointment virtually implies that the party, for the time being, is done with former Chief Minister Basavaraj Bommai, Shobha Karandlaje, Basavraj Yatnal and Tejasvi Surya among others. These leaders would now be expected to play a secondary role to junior Yediyurappa.
However, there have been many followers of the saffron brigade who have been wondering why the party has so far failed to appoint a Leader of Opposition in the Assembly, and this delay was sending a wrong message to the cadre, who have been loyal even during its worst phase.
There is speculation that the BJP could opt for Backward Class leader Sunil Kumar or a Vokkaliga face such as Dr C.N. Ashwathnarayan. After the drubbing in the Assembly polls, the BJP has been struggling to get its act together and all the changes that had been affected earlier were done at the instance of B.L. Santosh and C.T. Ravi. In fact, it was to protest against Santosh’s arbitrary decisions that former Chief Minister Jagadish Shettar, a prominent Lingayat leader, had quit the party and joined the Congress.
Shettar is now a Congress MLC and is expected to play an important part in the Lok Sabha polls, particularly in the Karnataka-Bombay belt where he has considerable influence, and could impact the outcome in at least six to seven seats. Incidentally, Shettar along with Yediyurappa and the late Ananth Kumar, was one of the architects of the BJP in the state, and his leaving the party is a major setback, even if the current leadership may not agree.
Although the burden of ensuring a good performance in the Lok Sabha elections has fallen on Vijayendra, the party would expect that his father would work day and night to get the desired results. Yediyurappa was forced to retire and consigned to the Marg Darshak Mandal, but shortly before the Karnataka Assembly polls, made a part of the Central Parliamentary Board to send a message that he was a very important figure in the BJP even now.
This late induction, obviously did not work in the polls, and the BJP lost. There is a school of thought that believes that had the BJP changed Bommai six months before the polls, the outcome would have been different. It is similar to what happened in Himachal Pradesh where the unpopularity of Jai Ram Thakur and the deliberate sidelining of Prem Kumar Dhumal cost the party the crucial election.
In Karnataka, most people blame Santosh. However, what matters is what both Modi and Amit Shah think of him since every election won at the national level is an election that is won in the name of the Prime Minister. Karnataka is crucial for the party since it is the only southern state where it has enjoyed power and is capable of winning a good number of seats.
The BJP has time and again been accusing many of its political adversaries of pursuing dynastic politics even though it has played the same card whenever it has suited it. Vijayendra’s appointment would give a handle to its rivals to counter attack the saffron brigade, and if he fails to deliver in the Parliamentary polls, the charge would be much sharper.
In Karnataka, the BJP has also tied up with Janata Dal (Secular), a party which has the patronage of former Prime Minister H.D. Deve Gowda, and is led by his son H.D. Kumaraswamy. Many in the BJP are unhappy with the development and similar is the case with Janata Dal (Secular), where several leaders are of the opinion that the Muslim vote has been gifted away to the Congress.
The Janata Dal (Secular) had considerable influence in the Mysore region and was the party which benefited greatly from the Vokkaliga support base it had. However, with D.K. Shiva Kumar getting prominence in state politics after the Congress victory, the Vokkaligas are now divided. Moreover, Siddaramaiah continues to be the most popular leader in the state and it would be really difficult for the BJP, or any other party to beat his charisma and hold over the state.
It is significant to understand that the shift of Muslim vote towards the Congress in the Assembly polls could happen once again in Telangana where the polls are to be held soon. The BJP has failed to polarize in Karnataka because Siddaramaiah along with Shiva Kumar and Shettar has put the Congress in the pole position.
Therefore, Vijayendra faces an uphill task where he would need his father’s maximum help. Between us.