A major issue faced by the BJP is their excessive reliance on NaMo.
Narendra Modi is set to take the oath of office for his third consecutive term as India’s Prime Minister, a historic achievement previously accomplished only by PM Jawaharlal Nehru. Despite the BJP unexpectedly falling short of securing a simple majority on its own, this marks the first time since 1962 that an incumbent government has achieved a hattrick at the national level, highlighting the rarity of this political feat. This achievement comes in a turbulent post-pandemic world, and despite the indiscriminate freebies promised by the Opposition alliance as well as the intense propaganda by domestic and international actors.
STABILITY CONCERNS
The altered political landscape has sparked concerns regarding the stability of the NDA government, and thereby the impact on the goal of becoming the third-largest economy and the advancement of Vision 2047. There are questions about Narendra Modi’s ability to run a coalition government, which he technically did in Modi 1.0 and 2.0, but the BJP was above the 272-mark both times. This time it is 32 shy of the magic number.
It is important to note that NaMo consistently maintained cordial terms with leaders from different political parties, showing respect regardless of their treatment towards him. Over the last ten years, he developed personal relationships with several heads of state, including three United States Presidents and the Russian President. Despite the baggage of the 2002 riots, he also shares warm relationships with Arab leaders. NaMo’s adeptness in cultivating ties across ideological and geographical boundaries suggests that he possesses the finesse necessary to effectively manage BJP allies.
The added advantage is that, akin to NaMo, both Nitish Kumar and Chandrababu Naidu are in the last leg of their political careers and would like to leave a lasting legacy. This prospect is achievable with NaMo as PM, rather than with the opposition alliance that has guaranteed financially unsustainable freebies and entertained notions such as yearly prime ministers. The two seasoned politicians also understand that while they are indispensable in the NDA, they have fewer numbers compared to Congress allies like SP, TMC, and DMK, and will not get the same level of significance in the big-tent I.N.D.I. Alliance. Also, the combined tally of the dotted alliance is less than that of the BJP. Even with the JDU and TDP support, the opposition alliance falls short of 272. There is also the Amit Shah factor; known to manage the numbers.
As of now, Modi 3.0 does not appear shaky. Nor does Narendra Modi, who confidently claimed that he will continue to work for India’s growth and empowerment of the people. Nonetheless, there are lessons to be learned from the elections and the outcome for the BJP, the Congress, as well as the nation.
BHARATIYA JANATA PARTY
The BJP has achieved the third best figure for any political party in decades. There is no pan-India anger against it. In fact, it has swept Madhya Pradesh, Uttarakhand, Himachal Pradesh, Delhi, Arunachal Pradesh, Gujarat, Odisha and Chhattisgarh. It will have to figure out what went right in these states, and what went wrong in Uttar Pradesh, Rajasthan, Maharashtra and West Bengal.
One thing, however, is certain, that there is turmoil within the party. In my 26 May article, Three Main Challenges of Modi 3.0, published in The Sunday Guardian, I explained the same. At a time when the BJP needs numbers, it is going to be hard to stop the imports, let alone weed them out, or break certain unpalatable alliances. Similarly, some civilisational issues might take a back seat. These, or any other compulsions need to be communicated to the support base to take them in confidence.
The BJP has to address several concerns: Congress high-command-like remote-control system, perceived arrogance, taking support for granted, transactional approach, giving tickets to people that are viewed extremely unfavourably by the supporters, resentment among some Hindus who claim that they are ignored while minorities who never vote for the BJP get higher share of welfare schemes, inaction when BJP members are persecuted in opposition states, failure to unequivocally condemn blasphemy killings by Muslims after Nupur Sharma controversy, etc. Open communication with simple messaging is the key. The BJP also needs a good party president, not a rubber stamp.
There exists a profound deficiency in understanding the political ramifications of certain statements—such as derogatory remarks about Rajputs and the call for securing 400 seats to “change the Constitution”. Some MPs have little knowledge of the government’s initiatives—there were embarrassing videos of a Delhi MP, who appeared clueless in media interviews.
A major issue faced by the BJP is their excessive reliance on NaMo. The PM himself believes that he can sway 10-15% votes on his personal appeal; the rest depends on the work of his government, the work of representatives in their constituencies, and the candidates. Instead, he is expected to be the primary vote-getter, compensating for the party’s questionable candidate selection, handling damage control for leaders prone to verbal blunders, and countering the opposition’s narrative. He also has to promote the positive achievements of his government, a task that the MPs and various units of the BJP should effectively carry out but fail to do. NaMo is equally to be blamed for this situation as he steps into the role whenever needed.
The biggest problem is the inability to counter narratives and psychological warfare. This election, more than ever, has proved that we are increasingly moving towards a scenario where narratives will heavily impact outcomes. Take freedom of speech. Modi critics have largely enjoyed liberty to abuse him and spread lies against his government, while BJP supporters have not only faced frequent arrests by opposition-states’ police over the exercise of freedom of speech, but BJP members have also endured numerous violent attacks, with several resulting in deaths. Consider the outrage that would ensue if someone had carried out a symbolic beheading of Rahul Gandhi in Madhya Pradesh, similar to the violent act perpetrated in Tamil Nadu, with Annamalai’s photo pasted on a goat’s head.
I have written extensively about such narratives and their impact on the nation. However, the failure of the Modi government and the BJP in this regard will require a separate article. For now, suffice to say that the BJP has neither managed to build a positive narrative for itself that drowns everything else, nor countered the “democracy in danger” or “minorities persecution” or other such propaganda effectively.
I am not listing the RSS-BJP equation as a problem. Rahul Gandhi has likened RSS to Muslim Brotherhood and SIMI in the past. The UPA had floated the saffron terror bogey, and almost brought the Communal Violence Bill. Sangh knows what is in store for it if Congress comes to power. The reason why Nagpur made peace with NaMo in 2014, and will hold peace now as well, having come close to BJP losing power.
INDIAN NATIONAL CONGRESS
With its third worst performance, Congress is peacocking around as if it won the popular mandate. While its tally doubled, the fact is that it did not sweep any major state, not even Karnataka and Telangana. After ten years of the UPA government, Congress was reduced to 44 seats; after ten years of the NDA government, Congress is at 99 and BJP at 240. It is good to celebrate success, but it is also important to be aware of reality.
At this juncture, Congress will do well to remember the 2017 Gujarat Assembly polls. The BJP had an ambitious target of Mission 150, but barely made it. Congress had put up its best show in a long time. Five years later, the BJP won 156 constituencies, the highest ever in the state’s history, and with few MLAs jumping ship, it now has 161 out of 182 seats.
The prospect of sitting in the opposition for five more years may not appeal to some of its MPs. However, big wins in upcoming state elections, including Maharashtra where it has done well, may help stop the exodus. In that regard, the arrogance and aggression of Rahul Gandhi will become a hurdle to attract non-Congress supporters, who aren’t beholden to the dynasty. Similarly, his negative politics and divisive rhetoric will have to be controlled if Congress wants fence-sitters as well as disillusioned BJP voters. Worth remembering that if leftist ideology had a pan-India appeal, Communists, and not the BJP, would have replaced Congress. Whether Congress has anyone who can dare to point this out to him, especially when he has tasted some success, is a question.
INDIAN INSTITUTIONS AND INDIANS
First, the Election Commission of India has to take stern action against all those who were spreading rumours about the election process and the EVMs. India can ill afford to go through this baseless cycle of allegations every few years. There has to be a heavy cost for those who indulge in malicious propaganda.
Second, there has to be a check on the indiscriminate freebies promised by political parties, which is the same as bribing voters. A PIL is pending in the Supreme Court, but the ECI can work out guidelines on its own. The power hungriness of politicians cannot be allowed to ruin the nation’s economy.
Third, voters have to be questioned and educated, both. Women are queueing up at Congress offices to get the guaranteed Rs 8,500 per month. They voted for the khatakhat promise, and now expect to get the money. The freebies mindset has to be rejected, irrespective of which party is offering it. It should be questioned whether farmers are given free money, women are offered so, people are given free electricity, or anything else. The well-wishers of this nation have to counter this political trend.
Fourth, there has to be clarity and awareness among voters on instances of terror-accused individuals contesting the elections.
Fifth, the Supreme Court needs to assess the extent to which it will permit attacks on the electoral process through numerous PILs. While deliberating on this matter, it should also contemplate the boundaries within which it is prepared to allow the unelected to influence governance by resorting to legal challenges against every government decision.
Lastly, the people of this nation will have to rise above political divisiveness. It is revolting to celebrate an assault on a newly elected MP over her views on farm protests. There is no difference between the cheerleaders of the CISF person who assaulted Kangana Ranaut for personal reasons, and those who parade Indira Gandhi’s bloodied effigy and worship her assassins. Blind hatred for a political party should not blur certain lines.
Semu Bhatt is a strategic adviser and author specialising in governance, geopolitics, and conflict.