Without an NRC a country becomes a free for all that allows anyone and everyone to walk in and create mayhem at will which is precisely what is happening in Manipur.
The violent conflagration between the Kuki and Meitei communities in Manipur, which has so far consumed over 100 lives and displaced several thousands (about 40,000) is a microcosm of the multiple ethnic tensions that prevail in the Northeast of India; conflicts between warring tribal communities ostensibly over limited land and natural resources but one that is accentuated by the changing demography of the region, both religious and ethnic; a dangerous disequilibrium that is exploited by our enemies from within and without to compromise the sovereignty of India and weaken the nation.
Manipur, with a population of 29 lakh as per the 2011 census, is home to three major ethnic communities—the Meiteis, Kukis and Nagas. The largely urban Meiteis constitute 53% of the population and are to be found mainly in the fertile Imphal Valley that makes up approximately 10% of Manipur’s land mass. The Kukis and Nagas, who make up 40% of the population, inhabit the surrounding hilly areas—the remaining 90% of Manipur.
The immediate trigger for this current outbreak of hostilities is a recent High Court decision that endorsed the demand for Scheduled Tribe status by the Meiteis (on par with the Nagas and Kukis). An ST tag would allow Meiteis to settle and buy land in the hilly regions which they are now restricted from; the Kukis in contrast are free to purchase land anywhere in Manipur.
A Tribal Solidarity March organized by Kuki and Naga groups on 3 May to protest the HC decision precipitated this deadly cycle of violence that continues to simmer even a month later.
Additionally, a forest eviction drive by the state government to prevent encroachment of forest land by illegal immigrants and deter rampant poppy cultivation encouraged by drug cartels and insurgent groups (who use drug money to buy arms) has led to deep resentment among the Kukis, who perceive this as an attempt to specifically target their community.
But there is a far more dangerous angle to this ethnic strife—illegal immigration from neighboring Myanmar, rampant conversion and armed insurgency.
The Kukis of Manipur are a part of a broader community of Kuki-Chin-Zo people who are to be found in adjoining states like Nagaland, Mizoram and Meghalaya as well as in neighbouring countries like Bangladesh and Myanmar (Chin State and Sagaing Region). Over the years there has been a steady migration of Chin refugees from Myanmar and Bangladesh into Manipur across the 400 km porous border. The 2021 coup in Mayanmar has resulted in increasing this influx.
As per the 2011 census, the total Kuki population in Manipur was about 4.5 lakh. Recent unofficial estimates put this number at 9 lakh or 30% of the population of Manipur; an increase that cannot be on the basis of birthrate alone and must be attributed to illegal migration. This changing demography which can impact the electoral process has rightly raised concerns among the majority Meiteis. There is also the possibility of a demand for a separate Kuki-Zo nation encompassing parts of India and Myanmar at some later stage posing a security threat to our border.
The changing religious demography of Manipur is another factor contributing to this divide. There was not a single Christian in Manipur at the start of the 20th century. During the period of 1961-71, Christians recorded a phenomenal growth rate of 84%. By the 1981 census, Christians made up 34% of the population. As per the 2011 census, Christians now constitute 41.29% of the population on par with the dwindling Hindu population. The Kukis are mainly Christian and the Meiteis Hindus.
Armed insurgents belonging to both communities have been involved in this spate of recent killings. Several insurgents have entered Manipur from Myanmar in the last month.
A large cache of weapons looted from police armories after 3 May found their way into the hands of both Meitei and Kuki insurgents.
According to one government official, “The cadres of both Meitei and Kuki groups have now been armed with stolen weapons and are attacking civilians.”
It would be naive to overlook a possible China connection to this Northeast imbroglio. China in the past has supported insurgent groups and could very well be behind the current violence in light of the continued standoff with India along the LAC. The ULFA chief Paresh Barua continues to find shelter in China.
The Manipur violence reminds us that despite the relative normalcy in recent times, the Northeast remains a volatile powder keg that can explode at any time. Continued vigilance is necessary. The AFSPA must be retained till the last of the insurgents is neutralized.
This is no time to indulge in a blame game and play politics as the opposition did post Home Minister Amit Shah’s all-party meeting on 24 June. The immediate priority must be to control the violence and restore peace to this region. The government has taken steps that appear to be having an effect.
At the all-party meeting HM Amit Shah said, “Not a single person has died in the violence since the night of 13 June. So far, 1,800 looted weapons have been surrendered. While 36,000 security personnel are deployed on the ground, 40 IPS officers and 20 medical teams have been sent. Supply of all essential items, including medicines, is being ensured.”
Continued dialogue between the various tribes as well government laws to erase the inequality between the groups should form the core of this conflict resolution.
In tandem, robust long-term measures to check extraneous factors like illegal immigration and armed insurgency from across our borders are crucial to the harmony of the Northeast.
Fencing the border is one measure that HM Shah alluded to during his recent visit to Manipur. He said: “For a permanent solution, we have already set up wired fencing across 10 kilometers of the Manipur-Myanmar border on a trial basis, work tender has been invited for fencing on another 80 kilometers, and a survey for fencing the rest of the Manipur-Myanmar border is being initiated.”
Notwithstanding the large-scale controversy that erupted a few years ago, this is an opportune moment to revisit the NRC. Every legitimate nation needs an NRC to safeguard its sovereignty. We need to refine and implement an NRC that will discriminate between legitimate citizens and illegal entrants; this will help maintain the demographic status quo and calm apprehensions among the different communities of the region. Without an NRC a country becomes a free for all that allows anyone and everyone to walk in and create mayhem at will which is precisely what is happening in Manipur. Our sovereignty is at stake. We defer the NRC at our own peril.