In this journey, there aren’t any low-hanging fruits. China is our biggest competitor in this journey.
With the successful landing of ISRO’s Chandrayaan-3 on the moon’s south pole, the global race to become a space superpower has intensified. Let it be stated that future geopolitical formations will be determined by the power of space technology. The United States, China and Russia are the major players in space technology, but, of late, India has also started punching above its weight in this sector given the robust push rendered by Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s government. ISRO’s momentous success in satellite launches, and, also, in mitigating the production cost has pulled many countries’ attention to India.
But we are talking about the journey of a space superpower, and in this journey, there aren’t any low-hanging fruits. China is our biggest competitor in this journey. As evident, Russia is no longer able to lure foreign countries to sell its technology. Also, the lack of funding and the subsequent sparse budget for technology in the wake of the ongoing Ukraine war has constrained its space programmes. The Western sanction has only exacerbated its problem. Pavel Luzin, a senior fellow at the Jamestown Foundation, predicts a gloomy future for the Russian space programme, suggesting that “Russia will be able to launch some satellites. But it will not be an advanced space power. It will not be making steps beyond low Earth orbit”. The recent Luna-25 crash turns Luzin’s prophecy true to some extent.
And it is here that China gains momentum, a country that is always seeking opportunities to exploit. While the competitors in this field seem to have been reduced, the rise of China may savour tensions and distrust within Asia as well as in the global geopolitical sphere. China’s credentials are raucous, given its invariable disrespect for other countries and their borders. Judging China on the objective indicators of any democratic nation, one can find its performance has been pathetic and alarming. China shares its borders with 14 nations, and it is no surprise to find that it continues to exercise its muscle against 13 of them.
China’s desperation to gain iconic status in the field of space technology is evident in its bid to produce and circulate more films on space science. This has two hidden motives. First, to cultivate in its youth a fervent belief about their ability to attain the top position in the space sector, while also inspiring them to join this mission. Second, the theme of such movies has utopian underpinnings for global peace. With its overt plan to lead Asia and the world, China is treading a careful path and does not want powerful nations to question and critique its ongoing space innovations. There is a diktat to the film industry to produce films that promote Xi Jinping’s thoughts. These films are more of an appeasement exercise to underplay the real agenda of its space mission, while also instilling in its citizens a sense of pride for their nation’s progress. The Chinese movie, The Wandering Earth, is just one such example that foregrounds its peace mission that underpins space innovations.
However, a mismatch between their statements and intentions is largely evident. For example, Ye Peijian, the head of China’s Lunar Exploration Program emphasizes that “If others go there [moon], then they will take over, and you won’t be able to go even if you want to. This is reason enough.” Exactly the reason why the NASA administrator, Bill Nelson casts his apprehension about China’s intention to colonize the moon. Nelson asserts, “I don’t want China to get to the south pole first with humans and then say, this is ours; stay out.” Casting a wary eye on China’s intentions, Lloyd Austin, US Secretary of Defense identifies China as “the most significant threat going forward”.
In this ongoing tussle related to the space sphere and also to lead the race for superpower, India has registered a noteworthy entry. PM Modi has convincingly demonstrated his bold vision for transforming the Indian economy. The “Make in India” and “Aatmanirbhar Bharat” initiatives are designed to put India on top of the global economic order. These initiatives also aim to position India as the most favoured destination for providing cutting-edge technological innovations. The recent developments in the international market augurs well for India. It has rendered a strong footing for India in this sector and there has been a palpable shift by many buyers to India.
Ever since the Modi government allowed the space sector for all kinds of private enterprise in June 2020, it has seen the rise and spread of a network of businesses, mostly driven by homegrown talent. From a nation that depended on foreign technology to carry its space programme, India is becoming a self-reliant nation now. As a result of this push, India saw the registration of 140 space-tech start-ups, which have also boosted India’s economy. The figures suggest that these start-ups have brought in an investment worth $120 million, and this is expected to grow at a rapid rate in years to come.
If one were to analyse the relevance of the “Make in India” (2014) and Aatmanirbhar Bharat (2020) initiatives, it is evident that ISRO has triggered more launches under the Modi government in comparison to all previous governments. Since 2014, ISRO has carried out 47 launches; they have all been carried out at a cost that is significantly lower than the launches conducted by other countries.
And, this is where we have reached. Our self-belief and self-reliance have started attracting even Elon Musk’s SpaceX company. Until recently, Russia, China, and SpaceX were the major suppliers of satellite launches, but India is now gaining momentum. As a result, the NewSpace India Ltd., launched three dozen satellites for the UK-based OneWeb Ltd, recently. This has invigorated India’s position in the space sector.
The rise in demand for high-speed internet has been brewing. For example, the chairman and managing director of the NewSpace, D. Radhakrishnan, says that “demand is so huge…there’s going to be a lot of shortage of the heavy-lift launchers that will be required”. Ernst & Young predicts that by 2025, the space economy will grow to $600 billion from $447 billion in 2020.
Going by the figures, it is estimated that the value of India’s satellite launch services may reach $1 billion by 2025. In our journey of space innovation, India still requires more investment and a robust culture to cultivate a scientific temperament to compete with China. The Washington-based think tank, Center for Strategic and International Studies, indicates that China owned 13.6% of all earth-orbiting satellites, compared to 2.3% for India until 2020.
As much as there seems to be intensified competition, one also finds a lack of options in the field of space technology. It is very likely that the US, China, and India will be the key players in the race to become a space superpower, which will embolden its soft power as well. Unlike China, India has always harboured respect for other nations. “We are known to be a very friendly country and to live and let live has been the guiding principle of India approach or Indian world view,” says the President of the Indian Council for Cultural Relations (ICCR), who also goes on to define soft power as the “ability to shape the long-term attitudes and preferences” of other nations towards one country. India’s rise in space technology, therefore, is a celebratory occasion, and it will contribute to the establishment of a firm geopolitical order.
Om Prakash Dwivedi teaches at Bennett University, Greater Noida. He tweets @opdwivedi82