A decade after the era of coalition and instability ended, again there is a bid for reviving the scenario of a hung Parliament. Indian National Congress, which observed its 139th foundation day on 28 December, is no longer in a position to bounce back on its own and is pathetically looking for allies among its traditional archrivals to oust BJP. The Grand Old Party had won 404 against BJP’s two seats in Lok Sabha in 1984. In the four decades that have passed, BJP today seems poised to aim at a 400-plus score, while Congress is trying to retain its dismal two-digit score of 2014 and 2019.
Congress failed to get a majority on its own since 1989. BJP and Congress both floundered on hundred-plus seats in the 1989-2009 period. Then came 2014 when Congress plummeted to 44 and BJP got a majority on its own. The party with two seats in 1984 had stitched together a successful nationwide coalition with diverse parties since 1998 to reach its zenith. 2019 saw Congress still unable to get enough seats to be recognised as leader of Opposition in the Lok Sabha, while BJP crossed the 300-mark. (One-tenth of Lok Sabha seats, 55, is the requirement for a party to be recognised as leader of Opposition.)
Congress had relied on post-poll allies to oust BJP in 2004. The motley coalition, remotely controlled by Sonia Gandhi while Manmohan Singh was the designated Prime Minister, lasted a decade. Congress had seen the fractured decrees of 2004 and 2009 as “mandate to rule”. They merely provided an opportunity to govern. Policy paralysis and poor governance became the hallmark of Manmohan Singh regime and BJP successfully used its “surajya” theme to emerge as the party of governance in 2014.
Both the nationwide parties, Congress and BJP, have been part of coalitions over past two decades. While BJP has been the dominant partner of its alliances, Congress has been dominated by its allies. National Democratic Alliance (NDA) exists even today. But it is BJP which calls the shots. United Progressive Alliance (UPA) has been buried with the emergence of I.N.D.I.A (Indian National Developmental and Inclusive Alliance). I.N.D.I.A parties have held four conclaves over past six months.
The first meeting, convened in Patna by JD(U)’s Nitish Kumar in June was the preliminary meeting. A month later, Congress played host in Bengaluru and I.N.D.I.A was formally launched. In August, the Mumbai meet threw up some preliminary plans and some joint panels were set up (in which all parties did not nominate their representatives). Mumbai decision for a joint rally in Bhopal was torpedoed by Congress’ Madhya Pradesh leadership.
Not only did the Congress in MP reject the collective decision of the Mumbai conclave, along with state leaderships of Rajasthan and Chhatisgarh the pleas of allies for seat sharing in the states where Congress is the dominant partner were pooh-poohed.
Thus when the fourth conclave took place in New Delhi post Congress defeats in the Hindi heartland states allies questioned the GOP’s credentials. That was not all. In the Congress Working Committee (CWC) meeting reviewing the results Rahul Gandhi, who has the final word in Congress, chided his state leaders for their failure to accept alliance norms.
The I.N.D.I.A meeting in New Delhi was described by a JD(U) MP who participated as a “tea-biscuit session”. The participant lamented that the usual samosa served on such occasions was missing, perhaps due to host Congress party’s cash crunch.
The New Delhi meeting saw Congress being embarrassed by Mamata Banerjee and Arvind Kejriwal’s preference for projecting Mallikarjun Kharge as the Dalit “Prime Ministerial face”. Kharge was quick to duck the suggestion. The CWC meeting after the I.N.D.I.A conclave chose to ignore acceptance of the Congress president as the face of I.N.D.I.A bloc. Instead it decided to endorse the leadership of Rahul Gandhi by announcing the schedule for his Bharat Jodo Yatra 2.0, rechristened as Nyay Yatra.
The inability of Congress to grab the opportunity offered on a platter by Mamata and Kejriwal by projecting Kharge showed that the party is unsure of its footing. By accepting Kharge these allies were perhaps accepting the pivotal role of Congress. This opportunity was not fathomed and the events which followed clearly indicate that Congress accepts the role of being a junior partner in the alliance, diametrically opposed to the dominance of BJP in NDA.
In West Bengal, Trinamool has made it clear that it can accommodate Congress only in two seats (both seats had been wrested in 2019 by Congress fighting on its own). In Maharashtra, the truncated Uddhav Thackrey faction of Shiv Sena has laid its claim on 23 seats that the united Sena had fought in 2019. Similar unilateral claims are emerging elsewhere too.
Congress, on its part, has set up a five-member National Alliance Committee headed by Mukul Wasnik, with Ashok Gehlot, Bhupesh Baghel, Salman Khurshid and Mohan Prakash as members. The committee is yet to begin cross-party talks.
The en masse expulsion of I.N.D.I.A bloc MPs from Parliament provided the Opposition the opportunity to unite. But this unity was not reflected through mass protests across the country. Protests were confined to Lutyens Delhi. Governments are not uprooted by mere sloganeering and mimicking. In the past, protracted mass struggles and nationwide mobilisation had preceded change of regime.
The JP movement of 1974 did the groundwork for a successful anti-Congress unity and the emergence of Janata Party as ruling party in 1977. Rajiv Gandhi’s behemoth mandate was negated in 1989 following V.P. Singh’s Bofors propaganda and nationwide mobilisiation since 1987. The 2011 Anna Hazare movement was the womb for formation of an alternate political platform, Aam Aadmi Party and it provided the backdrop for the emergence of BJP and India’s new party of governance. Shadow-boxing and innuendo dominate the strategy of those who seek to oust Narendra Modi in 2024.
As 2024 rolls in, BJP seems all geared up for a repeat of 2014 and 2019. The Ram Temple in Ayodhya, the Hindu temple in Arabia’s Abu Dhabi (being constructed at Narendra Modi’s suggestion, he will participate in its inauguration in mid-February) along with “Modi ki guarantee ki gaadi” , which connects with labharthis of NDA largesse, are poised to take Modi to a third successive term, equalling the stature of Jawaharlal Nehru and surpassing the tenures of all his predecessors.